The demise of the $10 pitcher.

[Gregg]

I don't know if it means much. Thought I would throw it out there for comments.

Here is a list of $10 pitchers that were actually bid at auction. We have a 13 round reserve draft after the auction where the value for 3 of the rounds is placed at $10. These names are exclusive of those pitchers. They also do not have FAAB bids included.

NL only

Brandon McCarthy
Hyun-Jin Ryu

AL only

Andrew Miller
Tyler Skaggs

This seems very odd to me. Is this trend happening in your keeper auction leagues as well?

[BigJonEmpire]

That's interesting but I wonder how many pitchers went between say 8 and 15. In keeper leagues a younger $10 pitcher might go for more based on potential. And since everyone is becoming much more risk averse I bet some $10 guys are getting a bit of a discount based on injury history or inconsistent performance.

[The Dane]

I'm seeing this in my NL leagues for the last few years. Mid-range pitchers are getting pushed up into the high-teens, or pushed down into the $5-$7 range. The upside goes up and the downside goes down. Like last year, VVelaquez, RRay and KDavies went up, and BMcCarthy, AConley, and some others went down. It's a thing, I feel, that can be exploited if you can get some cheap enough and absorb the risk.

[cavebird]

I've seen more or less the same thing. There seems to be more of a stars and scrubs like feel to auctions. Guys either are the ones people want and go for more or are the guys people don't won't, even if objectively even to the other guys. Usually the younger upside plays go for more and the boring vets with only downside fall. Probably a market correction more than anything else. My guess is that the guy who gets caught in this in 2018 auctions will be Cole Hamels. Could be a bargain, but he may just no longer be any good.

[The Dane]

I've seen more or less the same thing. There seems to be more of a stars and scrubs like feel to auctions. Guys either are the ones people want and go for more or are the guys people don't won't, even if objectively even to the other guys. Usually the younger upside plays go for more and the boring vets with only downside fall. Probably a market correction more than anything else. My guess is that the guy who gets caught in this in 2018 auctions will be Cole Hamels. Could be a bargain, but he may just no longer be any good.

It could certainly be that. I think it's also the fact that there are fewer and fewer owners who go into drafts with little real preparation, which is driving the price of upside up, and you can't drive up the price of one thing without dropping it somewhere else, and so the more boring -or more injury-prone- starters are dropping. I don't think that affects most of us here, because we're already trying to balance upside with risk, but it'll make getting a cheap upside arm for a rebuild that much harder. But then, you may grab an injury-risk on the super cheap who leads you to a title.

I think this trend continues and becomes more pronounced.

[Art Vandelay]

This thread is an example of why rj is still the best forum for fantasy baseball discussion on the internet.

[Judge Jude]

I acquired Maeda at 19 in March for farmhand Ozzie Albies (5-S2)

Maeda wasn't quite worth that, but he was good enough
the auction had Moore 21, Wacha 20, Harvey 19, Gsellman 13, Wheeler 12, Leake 10, Conley 9.......

I've been "stars-and-scrubs" on SP for a few years now, and won with Kershaw at 44 in 2015 and 2017

the 10-day DL rule also affects some leagues more than others. in my limited-dump-bad-players league, those stints (Kershaw-Maeda-AWood) gave me a chance to take risk-free fliers

[cavebird]

Wow, I would definitely given you Maeda for Albies (but didn't have to deal with that because I already had him, lol). Then again, you are flying the flag, so it obviously worked for you. Well done!

[cavebird]

It could certainly be that. I think it's also the fact that there are fewer and fewer owners who go into drafts with little real preparation, which is driving the price of upside up, and you can't drive up the price of one thing without dropping it somewhere else, and so the more boring -or more injury-prone- starters are dropping. I don't think that affects most of us here, because we're already trying to balance upside with risk, but it'll make getting a cheap upside arm for a rebuild that much harder. But then, you may grab an injury-risk on the super cheap who leads you to a title.

I think this trend continues and becomes more pronounced.

This is exactly it. And MLB teams are in on it, too, which is why the free agent market is so slow. Everyone knows what they are all worth and won't overpay.

[Judge Jude]

Wow, I would definitely given you Maeda for Albies (but didn't have to deal with that because I already had him, lol). Then again, you are flying the flag, so it obviously worked for you. Well done!

it was a perfect storm. Kershaw+Maeda was worth more than the sum of its parts - because combined, you still crush it on ERA/Ratio, so the Maeda W+K came with no downside, basically. the bullpen was a miracle (spent 8 units, got an all-time league record 99 SV), but Kershaw (and AWood, sure) give you such a crazy ERA/Ratio cushion that you can take chances.

that's basically why the elite SPs go for more now. their W/K totals inch higher than marginal SP who now get replaced too soon, and you build up a bigger ERA/Ratio edge.

you're still dead if your STUD SP spits the bit, but that's the nature of the game.

I am 9 for 34 in titles - but only 18 for 34 in finishing in the money.

#gobigorgohome #daretobegreat

[revo]

And riffing off Dane's theory, there's also a bunch of formerly top-flight starters who have plunged in value, leading many to look elsewhere. Guys like Harvey, Cueto, Hamels, Felix, Wainwright, Zimmermann, Wacha, etc.

I'd predict pitchers like Musgrove, Miranda, Faria & Reynaldo Lopez to come close to $10 in mixed leagues.

[cavebird]

Ah, you had Wood, too. That explains a lot. Given what his price was last year versus performance, I imagine he was on a lot of winning teams. I don't disagree on the elite ones, I just wonder if depth of the second tier can work as well without as much risk. Then again, those guys don't go cheaply, either--if the $40 guys go for $50, it is better to get the $25-30 guys in greater quantity, but not when those guys go for $35-40, and the big guns are always tossed out first, so you don't know in the heat of the moment.

[cavebird]

I agree with you, too, revo, except for including Jordan Zimmerman; he seems to be obviously cooked. Happens so often to pitchers. The rest of them sound spot on. Wainwright might be cooked, too, but that's just quibbling.

[revo]

Here's an interesting theory, using Rotolab:

- in 2014, the pitchers who ended up being worth $10 had on average an ERA in the low 3.00s and a WHIP in the mid-to-upper 1.10s.
- in 2018, the pitchers projected to earn $10 will have an average ERA in the high 3.00s and a WHIP in the mid-to-upper 1.20s.

[The Dane]

Here's an interesting theory, using Rotolab:

- in 2014, the pitchers who ended up being worth $10 had on average an ERA in the low 3.00s and a WHIP in the mid-to-upper 1.10s.
- in 2018, the pitchers projected to earn $10 will have an average ERA in the high 3.00s and a WHIP in the mid-to-upper 1.20s.

Used to be, not but a scant few years ago, that the middle tier of starters was made up primarily of young high-upside guys and older guys with injury histories. Smart players dipped into both pools with caution and didn't go too far in either direction. The information landscape has changed. I think it changed when very good fantasy writers, several from this very site, started writing for the glossy magazines. This meant that any mope with a few bucks and fifteen minutes could have a functional list of guys with upside produced by really smart people. This wasn't so easily available before that. So, the young high-upside guys are targets by EVERYONE now, which means that the other half of that pool dips. Some of us react by going Stars and Scrubs, which is logical and smart, because it avoids that middle altogether. Some of us are still playing the middle, but grabbing fewer high-upside guys and more injury-history guys, spending about the same as we would have but just having a different makeup.

The last few years, I've tried to grab (or protect) an ace early and then throw all those high-upside starters out real early when everyone still has cash, but before the other aces are all gone. This has allowed me --not every time, but on more than one occasion-- to then get another ace at a small discount. And then go cheap after that. Ultimately, I could get a $85 staff with two aces in it. It doesn't always work, because the draft is an organic thing and it's gonna go where it's gonna go, but one owner can steer it a little with the right information.