2K19: Closer and Bullpen

[Hornsby]

If you just need saves, you can probably lose Jeffress. He's probably the #2 there, if you ignore that weird shit they're doing with Hader. Barring another (god forbid) injury to Knebel, Jeffress is merely a very fine middle reliever.

I think the situation in Philly is much more fluid. I'm not sure where the rest of Philly's save are going to land. Right now, I'd guess that Neris gets the lion's share, but it's still up in the air. I like Dominguez, but I find it very doubtful that he takes the closer role and owns it. First, he doesn't even have 10 inning in MLB, and I just don't think a numbers guy like Kapler would EVER give his ninth solely to a guy with no track record, no real data. I think he's open enough to play matchups and give Dominguez a share, but I seriously doubt he gets sole position of the closer role there. Neris is shaky, but at least he has data, and it isn't all bad. After that, they have Garcia and Ramos and usage patterns suggest that Ramos is the favored arm. That leaves him as a tenuous #2 on a team with a fluid closer position and a manager who isn't afraid to shake shit up, which is really something in an NL-only. Cut him if you have to, but you could come to regret it.

Seems to me like Kapler prides himself on thinking outside the box, so him falling into the "proven closer" trap seems unlikely. I think that what's more probably is that he continues to go by the metrics of the pitcher, and does a mix and match with the 3 of them...making them all useful and useless at the same time. Kind of a Schrodinger's Cat box of closers.

[The Dane]

Seems to me like Kapler prides himself on thinking outside the box, so him falling into the "proven closer" trap seems unlikely. I think that what's more probably is that he continues to go by the metrics of the pitcher, and does a mix and match with the 3 of them...making them all useful and useless at the same time. Kind of a Schrodinger's Cat box of closers.

Agreed. But for metrics guys, having no data is very bad data. Dominguez has very little good data on him. First, he's just a kid, and second, almost all of his innings in the minors came out of the rotation, not out of the back end of a bullpen. I think Kapler's willing to shake it up and go with what the numbers say before convention, but you aren't going to find a lot of numbers support for guys with fewer than 10ip at the MLB level suddenly becoming everyday closers. I'm sure it happens, but I can't think of any offhand. Dominguez comes in with no numbers with a numbers guy making the decisions. I'm just saying this in response to all the guys (not you, necessarily) who are expecting Sir Anthony to be a favorite for saves in Philly. I feel certain he'll get some, but I doubt he'll get the most from here on out.

[Ken]

Agreed. But for metrics guys, having no data is very bad data. Dominguez has very little good data on him.

However... while it would be considered naive to put a lot of trust in minor league data, perhaps that's another way of pounding your chest and showing that you are better with the numbers?

[The Dane]

However... while it would be considered naive to put a lot of trust in minor league data, perhaps that's another way of pounding your chest and showing that you are better with the numbers?

I suppose. Is Kapler a chest-pounder? He's metrics-savvy, so I suspect he's better with the numbers than most managers, but maybe he has some character flaw that will keep him doing the right thing, which will make him just as bad as those countless managers that don't for other, less mathematical, reasons.

[virgonomic]

So how many fantasy owners are still holding on to him (besides me in a 12 teamer with a decent size bench)?

He was dropped in my 10-team mixer. I finally benched him this week in a shallow 14-teamer. Is it time to cut bait?

[TranaGreg]

So how many fantasy owners are still holding on to him (besides me in a 12 teamer with a decent size bench)?

I have him on reserve in our 18 tm rjel ... but have no plans for him to see my active roster unless he magically becomes useful.

I also have Lance Lynn ... would love to cut one (or both) but the depth in this league means there isn't much to choose from ... leaving them for now as lottery tickets (though pretty fugly ones)

[Ken]

Is Kapler a chest-pounder?

I guess I've always viewed him that way. Even literally - Body builder, big into fitness. On the metrics side it comes off to me as "My way is new and better, watch this, hold my beer"

** Don't get me wrong, I want my managers to pay attention to metrics, and I agree with a lot of what he is pushing.

[Msaint]

Norris with a rare dumpster fire today.

[The Dane]

I guess I've always viewed him that way. Even literally - Body builder, big into fitness. On the metrics side it comes off to me as "My way is new and better, watch this, hold my beer"

** Don't get me wrong, I want my managers to pay attention to metrics, and I agree with a lot of what he is pushing.

I see where you're coming from, and I think we're in agreement. For me, he doesn't look the part. I want my metrics guys to look like Nate Silver, not The Rock, but from what I've read that he's written (not what's written about him), he's a guy that gets it. He's certainly not some cutting edge analytical mind (who is?), but I think he can appreciate the reasoning that goes into this research, which I think means he's probably like a lot of us. l And frankly, he may be the person in all of MLB closest to the field of play with that kind of vision. There are tons of superior minds than him working for MLB teams, but they're, by and large, working in analytics departments and draft rooms and not in the dugout.

I think he may look like a meathead, but he isn't.

[Ken]

Norris with a rare dumpster fire today.

He had a nice clean 1-2-3 ninth prior to blowing up in the 10th.

[The Dane]

Norris with a rare dumpster fire today.

Well, Norris has a career ERA of 4.45, and this kind of outing is kinda in his skillset. I doubt they'll be making changes anytime soon, but Hicks had a perfect inning with two Ks. Keep an eye out, because he's the guy they wish was their closer. He's not ready yet, but he appears to be getting there. They promoted him very aggressively for a reason...

[Ken]

Well, Norris has a career ERA of 4.45, and this kind of outing is kinda in his skillset. I doubt they'll be making changes anytime soon, but Hicks had a perfect inning with two Ks. Keep an eye out, because he's the guy they wish was their closer. He's not ready yet, but he appears to be getting there. They promoted him very aggressively for a reason...

I own Hicks on the cheap in a keeper league for exactly that reason.

He is an enigma though. 105 mph fastball but just 3.7 K/9 (and 6.5 BB/9). And just 7 K/9 in the minors.

Hicks has been very lucky this year.

I know he is extremely young and promoted quickly but I'm curious to see how it turns out because despite that fastball he's not getting the Ks he'd need to hold down a closer role.

[Judge Jude]

Hicks' xERA is 5.79, which is a more accurate, predictive way to look at him than a 2.05 ERA (granting sample size issues in both cases). he's not good enough - right now - to succeed longterm. he's young and talented, and may get better quickly, but his peripherals are terrible.

[overkill94]

Iglesias to the DL so someone else might have a chance during those 10 days (or more). Rotoworld mentions Garrett, Hughes, and Hernandez as options - my guess is mostly Hughes with Garrett an option if there are lefties coming up in the 9th.

[Msaint]

And I'd have to guess that Norris' career ERA being that high has to do with his being a starter for many years (mostly in his HOU and BAL years). Since 2009 he's had five seasons with 20+ games started, and four with 10+. Not that he's vintage Andrew Miller when it comes to peripherals, but he's had a 0.940 WHIP this year and ERA just over 2.00. And damn, compared to Holland he's Mo Rivera.