2018 Keepers

[DMT]

Of note, Mazara and Seager's Steamer projections are remarkably close.

25 HR, 80 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB, .274 AVG vs
25 HR, 93 R, 81 RBI, 4 SB, .290 AVG

If you trust the projections at all then I think you pocket the $10.

Using OB and Slug, Seager is still more valuable (.362/.492 to .342/.463) but maybe not $10. I have Cozart and Moancada so making the trade would also lock up all 3 MI slots.

[Gregg]

Of note, Mazara and Seager's Steamer projections are remarkably close.

25 HR, 80 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB, .274 AVG vs
25 HR, 93 R, 81 RBI, 4 SB, .290 AVG

If you trust the projections at all then I think you pocket the $10.

On what basis do they expect a .021 increase in BA for Mazara? Plus it took him 38 more at bats to reach his previous year hr total of 20. At this point 25 is a reach.

An injured Seager put up 4 less hr. with 88 less at bats than his previous year. I expect him to hit more than 25. Maybe only a couple but the potential is there.

I am not sure why they would project the 23 year old Seager to have the worst BA since he came up and Mazara to have his best? I don't buy it.

In addition I think there is bigger spread in OBP and Slugging than is posted here.

I certainly can see an argument for both sides. I don't think you go wrong either way. I also do not mind going into an auction with all my MI spots filled.

Good luck either way!

[Mithrandir]

On what basis do they expect a .021 increase in BA for Mazara? Plus it took him 38 more at bats to reach his previous year hr total of 20. At this point that is a reach.

An injured Seager put up 4 less hr. with 88 less at bats than his previous year. I expect him to hit more than 25. Maybe only a couple but the potential is there.

I am not sure why they would project the 23 year old Seager to have the worst BA since he came up and Mazara to have his best? I don't buy it.

In addition I think there is bigger spread in OBP and Slugging than is posted here.

I certainly can see an argument for both sides. I don't think you go wrong either way. I also do not mind going into an auction with all my MI spots filled.

Good luck either way!

Projections are nonsense. Just guesses by "experts" Lol.

[DMT]

Projections are nonsense. Just guesses by "experts" Lol.

Any thoughts on the trade?

[Ken]

Projections are nonsense. Just guesses by "experts" Lol.

Not sure if you are serious. I would have a hard time playing fantasy baseball without projections.

Steamer is not a "guess" by an expert. It is a mathematical model which uses historical data of all players combined with previous years results from a particular player and regresses towards the mean.

It is very far from perfect (as are all of them). But do you have a better projection system?

After all that's what fantasy baseball is, projecting which players will produce what results.

Do you personally put out a better projection system?

[Ken]

On what basis do they expect a .021 increase in BA for Mazara?

At least a portion is an expected increase in BABIP, he has not been very "lucky" to date in that department, last year it was just .293 which has some room for improved luck.

Plus it took him 38 more at bats to reach his previous year hr total of 20. At this point 25 is a reach.

Mazara will be just 22 on opening day. He's a full year younger than Seager. I suspect there's some growth expected.

Regardless, Seager hit just 2 more HR than Mazara, so the point is that they are basically even in the HR department. Whether thats both of them hitting 25 or both hitting 20 is pretty trivial.

An injured Seager put up 4 less hr. with 88 less at bats than his previous year. I expect him to hit more than 25. Maybe only a couple but the potential is there.

Not sure where you are going there with the 2016 numbers. In 2016 Seager hit 1 HR every 26.5 AB. In 2016 Mazara hit 1 HR ever 28.4 AB. And that was Mazara's age 20 season - a year where many hitters are still in college. He still has some significant growth potential.

I am not sure why they would project the 23 year old Seager to have the worst BA since he came up and Mazara to have his best? I don't buy it.

Likely because Seager has had a .357 BABIP to date and models regress to the mean

In addition I think there is bigger spread in OBP and Slugging than is posted here.

Probably so, that seems fair. I just don't think it's worth $10.

I certainly can see an argument for both sides. I don't think you go wrong either way. I also do not mind going into an auction with all my MI spots filled.

Good luck either way!

Agree on these points.

[Mithrandir]

Not sure if you are serious. I would have a hard time playing fantasy baseball without projections.

Steamer is not a "guess" by an expert. It is a mathematical model which uses historical data of all players combined with previous years results from a particular player and regresses towards the mean.

It is very far from perfect (as are all of them). But do you have a better projection system?

After all that's what fantasy baseball is, projecting which players will produce what results.

Do you personally put out a better projection system?

You mean that you dont think that you can project player stats as accurate as the "experts"? I bet you can. How many experts projected the HR binge this season? Just draft the team that you believe will be good enough to win. After playing this game for 27 years its pretty obvious that projections are just guesses. I can guess pretty good too

[DMT]

You mean that you dont think that you can project player stats as accurate as the "experts"? I bet you can. How many experts projected the HR binge this season? Just draft the team that you believe will be good enough to win. After playing this game for 27 years its pretty obvious that projections are just guesses. I can guess pretty good too

So are you going to offer your opinion on the players or just stay on your soap box?

[Mithrandir]

So are you going to offer your opinion on the players or just stay on your soap box?

I have no idea about players' OBP and SLG, so i cant really give an accurate assessment. I guess Seager.

[DMT]

Well, I ended up making the trade, and one owner had a fit because I ripped the other guy off lol. So here's where I stand.

Sano 12A
Moustakas 6A
Moncada 11 (O20) or 16 (O21)
Seager 16 (O19)
Zimmer 1A
Hendricks 7 (O19)
G Holland 1A
~~~~~~

So I can keep three of these. I'm leaning Cozart, Taylor, and either Renfroe or Godley.

Zunino 5A (good cheap power at weak position, but in a 1 C league I almost never keep one)
Cozart 5A (FG highlighted how he's become a different player since mid-2016)
Taylor 5A (another late bloomer having a monster year, but is he a 1-year wonder?)
Renfroe 3A (obvious power but .288 OB is a red flag, can he adjust?)
O Herrera 5B (turning his season around but helped kill my season in April)
Kiermaier 5A (BF likes him but he's just so injury-prone)
Godley 7A (great numbers and my strategy of spending almost nothing on pitching blew up in my face last year)

[DMT]

Here's who I ended up keeping:

Sano 12A
Moustakas 6A
Moncada 11 (O20)
Seager 16 (O19)
Taylor 5A
Kiermaier 5A
Zimmer 1A
Hendricks 7 (O19)
Godley 7A
G Holland 1A

[Gregg]

Nice team. Good luck at the auction!

[DMT]

Nice team. Good luck at the auction!

Thanks, here's how it turned out.

C Molina 4
1B Carpenter 19
3B Rendon 34
CI Sano 12
2B Moncada 11
SS Seager 16
MI T Anderson 1
OF Trout 77
OF Taylor 5
OF Kiermaier 5
OF Zimmer 1
OF Souza 1 ( Markakis or Kendrick filling in)
UT Moustakas 6

P Bumgarner 19
P Stroman 15
P Godley 7
P Hendricks 7
P Foltynewicz 1
P Richards 7
P Neris 7
P Holland 1
P Strickland 1

Bench
K Marte 1
E Rodriguez 1
Britton 1
Hader 2
Flaherty 2

[DMT]

I foolishly let Kershaw go at 42 as 1st player nominated because I had to have Trout. Also somehow hadn't read about Neris not closing, doh.

Nonetheless, I had some good buys like Bumgarner and might have scored in the endgame with Anderson, Flaherty, Britton, and Strickland. I think this team could be competitive if I catch a few breaks and mine free agents well.

[Gregg]

Competitive team.

May need to trade a few cheap keeps for x contracts to keep you in contention.

Fun team to manage. Good luck.