Originally posted by Ken
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
2018 Keepers
Collapse
X
-
If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
-
Originally posted by Ken View PostOf note, Mazara and Seager's Steamer projections are remarkably close.
25 HR, 80 R, 85 RBI, 3 SB, .274 AVG vs
25 HR, 93 R, 81 RBI, 4 SB, .290 AVG
If you trust the projections at all then I think you pocket the $10.
An injured Seager put up 4 less hr. with 88 less at bats than his previous year. I expect him to hit more than 25. Maybe only a couple but the potential is there.
I am not sure why they would project the 23 year old Seager to have the worst BA since he came up and Mazara to have his best? I don't buy it.
In addition I think there is bigger spread in OBP and Slugging than is posted here.
I certainly can see an argument for both sides. I don't think you go wrong either way. I also do not mind going into an auction with all my MI spots filled.
Good luck either way!Last edited by Gregg; 12-29-2017, 12:43 PM.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Gregg View PostOn what basis do they expect a .021 increase in BA for Mazara? Plus it took him 38 more at bats to reach his previous year hr total of 20. At this point that is a reach.
An injured Seager put up 4 less hr. with 88 less at bats than his previous year. I expect him to hit more than 25. Maybe only a couple but the potential is there.
I am not sure why they would project the 23 year old Seager to have the worst BA since he came up and Mazara to have his best? I don't buy it.
In addition I think there is bigger spread in OBP and Slugging than is posted here.
I certainly can see an argument for both sides. I don't think you go wrong either way. I also do not mind going into an auction with all my MI spots filled.
Good luck either way!"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."
Comment
-
Originally posted by Mithrandir View PostProjections are nonsense. Just guesses by "experts" Lol.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
Comment
-
Originally posted by Mithrandir View PostProjections are nonsense. Just guesses by "experts" Lol.
Steamer is not a "guess" by an expert. It is a mathematical model which uses historical data of all players combined with previous years results from a particular player and regresses towards the mean.
It is very far from perfect (as are all of them). But do you have a better projection system?
After all that's what fantasy baseball is, projecting which players will produce what results.
Do you personally put out a better projection system?
Comment
-
Originally posted by Gregg View PostOn what basis do they expect a .021 increase in BA for Mazara?
Originally posted by Gregg View PostPlus it took him 38 more at bats to reach his previous year hr total of 20. At this point 25 is a reach.
Regardless, Seager hit just 2 more HR than Mazara, so the point is that they are basically even in the HR department. Whether thats both of them hitting 25 or both hitting 20 is pretty trivial.
Originally posted by Gregg View PostAn injured Seager put up 4 less hr. with 88 less at bats than his previous year. I expect him to hit more than 25. Maybe only a couple but the potential is there.
Originally posted by Gregg View PostI am not sure why they would project the 23 year old Seager to have the worst BA since he came up and Mazara to have his best? I don't buy it.
Originally posted by Gregg View PostIn addition I think there is bigger spread in OBP and Slugging than is posted here.
Originally posted by Gregg View PostI certainly can see an argument for both sides. I don't think you go wrong either way. I also do not mind going into an auction with all my MI spots filled.
Good luck either way!
Comment
-
Originally posted by Ken View PostNot sure if you are serious. I would have a hard time playing fantasy baseball without projections.
Steamer is not a "guess" by an expert. It is a mathematical model which uses historical data of all players combined with previous years results from a particular player and regresses towards the mean.
It is very far from perfect (as are all of them). But do you have a better projection system?
After all that's what fantasy baseball is, projecting which players will produce what results.
Do you personally put out a better projection system?"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."
Comment
-
Originally posted by Mithrandir View PostYou mean that you dont think that you can project player stats as accurate as the "experts"? I bet you can. How many experts projected the HR binge this season? Just draft the team that you believe will be good enough to win. After playing this game for 27 years its pretty obvious that projections are just guesses. I can guess pretty good tooIf DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
Comment
-
Originally posted by DMT View PostSo are you going to offer your opinion on the players or just stay on your soap box?"I lingered round them, under that benign sky: watched the moths fluttering among the heath and harebells, listened to the soft wind breathing through the grass, and wondered how any one could ever imagine unquiet slumbers for the sleepers in that quiet earth."
Comment
-
Well, I ended up making the trade, and one owner had a fit because I ripped the other guy off lol. So here's where I stand.
Sano 12A
Moustakas 6A
Moncada 11 (O20) or 16 (O21)
Seager 16 (O19)
Zimmer 1A
Hendricks 7 (O19)
G Holland 1A
~~~~~~
So I can keep three of these. I'm leaning Cozart, Taylor, and either Renfroe or Godley.
Zunino 5A (good cheap power at weak position, but in a 1 C league I almost never keep one)
Cozart 5A (FG highlighted how he's become a different player since mid-2016)
Taylor 5A (another late bloomer having a monster year, but is he a 1-year wonder?)
Renfroe 3A (obvious power but .288 OB is a red flag, can he adjust?)
O Herrera 5B (turning his season around but helped kill my season in April)
Kiermaier 5A (BF likes him but he's just so injury-prone)
Godley 7A (great numbers and my strategy of spending almost nothing on pitching blew up in my face last year)Last edited by DMT; 01-21-2018, 04:08 AM.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
Comment
-
Here's who I ended up keeping:
Sano 12A
Moustakas 6A
Moncada 11 (O20)
Seager 16 (O19)
Taylor 5A
Kiermaier 5A
Zimmer 1A
Hendricks 7 (O19)
Godley 7A
G Holland 1AIf DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
Comment
-
Originally posted by Gregg View PostNice team. Good luck at the auction!
C Molina 4
1B Carpenter 19
3B Rendon 34
CI Sano 12
2B Moncada 11
SS Seager 16
MI T Anderson 1
OF Trout 77
OF Taylor 5
OF Kiermaier 5
OF Zimmer 1
OF Souza 1 ( Markakis or Kendrick filling in)
UT Moustakas 6
P Bumgarner 19
P Stroman 15
P Godley 7
P Hendricks 7
P Foltynewicz 1
P Richards 7
P Neris 7
P Holland 1
P Strickland 1
Bench
K Marte 1
E Rodriguez 1
Britton 1
Hader 2
Flaherty 2Last edited by DMT; 04-10-2018, 04:08 AM.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
Comment
-
I foolishly let Kershaw go at 42 as 1st player nominated because I had to have Trout. Also somehow hadn't read about Neris not closing, doh.
Nonetheless, I had some good buys like Bumgarner and might have scored in the endgame with Anderson, Flaherty, Britton, and Strickland. I think this team could be competitive if I catch a few breaks and mine free agents well.If DMT didn't exist we would have to invent it. There has to be a weirdest thing. Once we have the concept weird, there has to be a weirdest thing. And DMT is simply it.
- Terence McKenna
Bullshit is everywhere. - George Carlin (& Jon Stewart)
How old would you be if you didn't know how old you are? - Satchel Paige
Comment
Comment