Value of top tier SP's..

[revo]

Which of the following would you not consider?

Trout, Betts, Altuve, Bryant, Goldschmidt,
Machado, Harper, Blackmon, Seager,
Votto, Judge, Springer, Correa

In redraft leagues, I'd pass on Seager and probably Machado. Judge is tempting but I think I pass on that too out of fear of the unknown. Bryant's having a bad season, so while that would be a fantastic offer, I think I'd keep Kluber.

The others (and I'd also add Arenado) I would do if I had enough pitching and needed the offense. There isn't anyone else I'd consider for him.

[Redbirds Fan]

Sure every pitcher is risky. But what's riskier, paying top $$$$ for a top tier SP or playing the FA FAAB roulette wheel?

Looking at your example: I'd rather have the insanely brilliant 149 IP from Kershaw and find some fill ins on the WW, than pay $50 for a hitter who might not be that much better than the $1 hitters.

Last year I almost won my league with those 149 IP from Kershaw.

it's all about luck anyway

You can't be lucky all the time, Jack. You can be smart every day, though.

[Ken]

In redraft leagues, I'd pass on Seager and probably Machado. Judge is tempting but I think I pass on that too out of fear of the unknown. Bryant's having a bad season, so while that would be a fantastic offer, I think I'd keep Kluber.

The others (and I'd also add Arenado) I would do if I had enough pitching and needed the offense. There isn't anyone else I'd consider for him.

So by your valuations he's moved up from end of the 2nd round, which is where was drafted coming into this season, to near the top of the 2nd round. That's fair.

I can't agree on Judge. I get the general distaste for rookies but even if his season ended today Aaron Judge is a top half of the 1st round pick next year. He already has a 30 HR season with a 1.14 OPS under his belt currently. There's nothing left for him to prove.

[revo]

So by your valuations he's moved up from end of the 2nd round, which is where was drafted coming into this season, to near the top of the 2nd round. That's fair.

I can't agree on Judge. I get the general distaste for rookies but even if his season ended today Aaron Judge is a top half of the 1st round pick next year. He already has a 30 HR season with a 1.14 OPS under his belt currently. There's nothing left for him to prove.

Judge has never played a full major league season, so we don't know if he'll wear down or hit the wall. In a redraft league, that's not a risk I'd be willing to take for Kluber.

Right, I think Kluber is probably ranked #10-15 now, but if this were a 2nd half redraft league with the draft held today, I'd think he goes higher (probably 7-10) because, as Mith is pointing out, that there are so many fewer elite SPs.

[Redbirds Fan]

There are 56 hitters with at least 16 HR at the ASB. Are we looking at more than 50 hitters with 30+ HR when all is said and done in 2017??

Unlikely. There were only 27 hitters with 30+ home runs last year.

Only 20 batters drove in 100 runs last year, as compared to 58 guys in 1999 and 12 in 2014.

[madducks]

Bumgarners injury risk is more appropriately labeled as stupidity risk. He himself chose to unnecessarily elevate his injury risk by foolishly and selfishly trying to be a dirt bike daredevil during his day off.

[Ken]

Judge has never played a full major league season, so we don't know if he'll wear down or hit the wall.

I don't see it. Judge is one of the best athletes out there. I don't see comparing him to other rookie's as useful. We've never seen a rookie with this level of dominance for over half a season to compare to.

Right, I think Kluber is probably ranked #10-15 now, but if this were a 2nd half redraft league with the draft held today, I'd think he goes higher (probably 7-10) because, as Mith is pointing out, that there are so many fewer elite SPs.

You had 9 position players in front of him just from the list I gave off the top of my head. Unless you have him in front of Kershaw and Sale you can't have him in your top 10 right?

[revo]

BBHQ has Kluber worth $37 from this point forward.

The only hitters worth more the rest of the way in a 5x5 (BA) are:
Springer $44
Goldschmidt $42
Votto $41
Altuve $38
Betts $38


Scherzer is at $40 and Kershaw $39.

So BBHQ has him 8th the rest of the way. Seems about right to me.

[MagSeven]

I'm going to weigh in here, as I'm the Kluber owner who received the EE offer. My staff consists of Kluber, Carrasco, CMart, Quintana, Severino, Pomeranz, and Odorizzi (who has been deservedly riding the pine). I have not been pursuing a trade involving him, but I get the occasional off the wall offer for him. I was offered Bryant by another owner; I don't think that is nearly enough. I made an offer for Goldy, but it was turned down. BTW, I am currently in 1st place (over Mith) by 6.5 points.

[chancellor]

BBHQ has Kluber worth $37 from this point forward.

The only hitters worth more the rest of the way in a 5x5 (BA) are:
Springer $44
Goldschmidt $42
Votto $41
Altuve $38
Betts $38


Scherzer is at $40 and Kershaw $39.

So BBHQ has him 8th the rest of the way. Seems about right to me.

Phew...wow. I just can't agree with that. Even among pitchers, I take Sale before Kluber. Trout comes with risk, but should only be out another week and a half.

[Mithrandir]

Phew...wow. I just can't agree with that. Even among pitchers, I take Sale before Kluber. Trout comes with risk, but should only be out another week and a half.

I think that Trout is back tomorrow.

[Ken]

Phew...wow. I just can't agree with that. Even among pitchers, I take Sale before Kluber. Trout comes with risk, but should only be out another week and a half.

I'm in the same boat. I like Kluber a lot, but that's a little too extreme for me.

[revo]

They have Sale at $35 the rest of the way.

And FYI, they have EE at $28, so Kluber is worth $9 more.

[Ken]

They have Sale at $35 the rest of the way.

OK I'll bite - what's the rationale for Kluber over Sale

[revo]

OK I'll bite - what's the rationale for Kluber over Sale

You probably need to ask Ron Shandler that, but here's what they project for both:

Kluber: 8 W, 102 IP, 121 K, 2.91 ERA, 1.01 WHIP - $37
Sale: 8 W, 95 IP, 116 K, 3.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP - $35

EDIT -- in today's projection download, they now have Sale at $35 and Kluber at $34. They dropped one IP, added one K, upped the ERA to 3.16. For Kluber, they dropped 2 IP, took away a W, added 2 Ks, upped the ERA by 6 and the WHIP by 3.