Value of top tier SP's..

[Mithrandir]

Has the uptick in power made the stud SP's that much more valuable?

For example, an offer was made in my 13 team..5x5..mixed league :

EE for Kluber. May sound fair on the surface, but when you look at how many hitters are having comparable or even better years than EE, it makes the offer seem easily rejectable.

In other words, there are a lot of guys who can provide similar stats to EE, but not nearly as many can compare with Kluber.

Make sense?

[revo]

Was having this exact conversation the other day with Hammer.

I agree with you 100%, the top tier of pitchers are invaluable -- Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale. He said that in redrafts next year, Kershaw and Scherzer should be the top two picks. I added that Kluber and Sale should probably also be Top 5.

That said, yes -- it's easily rejectable. You cannot replace Kluber, while HRs are abundant.

Buuuuuut......the entire next tier of pitchers have been a minefield. Some have been great (Keuchel, Grienke, Darvish, Strasburg, etc); but many have been disasters relative to their cost (Lester, Tanaka, Verlander, Arrieta, Cueto, Porcello, etc.) Now maybe that makes the top guys even MORE valuable, I'm not sure.

But I agree 100% that HR hitters are dime-a-dozen and the elite SPs have seen their value increase tremendously.

[Ken]

Some have been great (Keuchel, Grienke, Darvish, Strasburg, etc); but many have been disasters relative to their cost (Lester, Tanaka, Verlander, Arrieta, Cueto, Porcello, etc.) Now maybe that makes the top guys even MORE valuable, I'm not sure.

Shouldn't Bumgarner and Syndergaard be listed somewhere here? They were ranked above Kluber and Sale coming into the year. The injury risk for any pitcher is a little scary.

[Art Vandelay]

I offered my severino for EE and was instantly rejected. Both expiring contracts.

[Redbirds Fan]

Was having this exact conversation the other day with Hammer.

I agree with you 100%, the top tier of pitchers are invaluable -- Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale. He said that in redrafts next year, Kershaw and Scherzer should be the top two picks. I added that Kluber and Sale should probably also be Top 5.

That said, yes -- it's easily rejectable. You cannot replace Kluber, while HRs are abundant.

Buuuuuut......the entire next tier of pitchers have been a minefield. Some have been great (Keuchel, Grienke, Darvish, Strasburg, etc); but many have been disasters relative to their cost (Lester, Tanaka, Verlander, Arrieta, Cueto, Porcello, etc.) Now maybe that makes the top guys even MORE valuable, I'm not sure.

But I agree 100% that HR hitters are dime-a-dozen and the elite SPs have seen their value increase tremendously.

The stakes are higher than ever, but the problem is the same. Pitchers are a risky proposition.

Take a $40 hitter. If he has an off year, he still might be worth $25 or $30. On the other hand, a guy like Porcello now has negative value in many formats, so an owner who bought or kept him killed a chance to roster another guy and spent however much money he cost. So how do you quantify the risk? You could say "hey, these guys should be worth about $45 if they have a good year, but some of them will flame out, so I'll discount them all by 30%", but you won't get any starting pitchers.

Even the four top guys...which would I have rather had in 2016? A $5 fast-balling set-up guy who gave me 5 wins, 7 saves, a 2.49 ERA, a 1.09 whip and 105 Ks, plus a $50 hitter, or 149 innings of Clayton Kershaw? Kershaw was amazing, but without the large numbers of innings the superior quality numbers don't provide the impact to justify the price. There just doesn't seem to be an answer. It's a mystery wrapped in a riddle.

I don't know. I hate starting pitchers. I used to sum up fantasy baseball in two five-word phrases: "Starters will break your heart." "But rookies are the worst."

I had lunch the other day with a friend I hadn't seen in a while and asked him how his teams were doing. He was first place at the break in one, topped out in all the offensive categories, lots of FAAB pitching. I asked about the other, and he shook his head. "I bought Bumgarner and Syndergaard." I told him, "Starters will...."

[Mithrandir]

The stakes are higher than ever, but the problem is the same. Pitchers are a risky proposition.

Take a $40 hitter. If he has an off year, he still might be worth $25 or $30. On the other hand, a guy like Porcello now has negative value in many formats, so an owner who bought or kept him killed a chance to roster another guy and spent however much money he cost. So how do you quantify the risk? You could say "hey, these guys should be worth about $45 if they have a good year, but some of them will flame out, so I'll discount them all by 30%", but you won't get any starting pitchers.

Even the four top guys...which would I have rather had in 2016? A $5 fast-balling set-up guy who gave me 5 wins, 7 saves, a 2.49 ERA, a 1.09 whip and 105 Ks, plus a $50 hitter, or 149 innings of Clayton Kershaw? Kershaw was amazing, but without the large numbers of innings the superior quality numbers don't provide the impact to justify the price. There just doesn't seem to be an answer. It's a mystery wrapped in a riddle.

I don't know. I hate starting pitchers. I used to sum up fantasy baseball in two five-word phrases: "Starters will break your heart." "But rookies are the worst."

I had lunch the other day with a friend I hadn't seen in a while and asked him how his teams were doing. He was first place at the break in one, topped out in all the offensive categories, lots of FAAB pitching. I asked about the other, and he shook his head. "I bought Bumgarner and Syndergaard." I told him, "Starters will...."

Sure every pitcher is risky. But what's riskier, paying top $$$$ for a top tier SP or playing the FA FAAB roulette wheel?

Looking at your example: I'd rather have the insanely brilliant 149 IP from Kershaw and find some fill ins on the WW, than pay $50 for a hitter who might not be that much better than the $1 hitters.

Last year I almost won my league with those 149 IP from Kershaw.

it's all about luck anyway

[Mithrandir]

There are 56 hitters with at least 16 HR at the ASB. Are we looking at more than 50 hitters with 30+ HR when all is said and done in 2017??

[revo]

The great irony is that many waiver wire or late round pitchers have excelled -- ESantana, Vargas, Godley, Severino, Peacock, Straily, JMontgomery, Nelson, etc -- that if you didn't buy a top starter high, you could have emerged ok.

My redraft team lost Syndergaard, but I picked up Godley, Dickey & Hellickson and have done well.

[Ken]

The great irony is that many waiver wire or late round pitchers have excelled -- ESantana, Vargas, Godley, Severino, Peacock, Straily, JMontgomery, Nelson, etc -- that if you didn't buy a top starter high, you could have emerged ok.

My redraft team lost Syndergaard, but I picked up Godley, Dickey & Hellickson and have done well.

Agree.

I think the names you listed, Syndergaard, ESantana, Vargas, Godley, Severino, Peacock, Straily, JMontgomery, Nelson pretty much sums up why you don't see many starters in the 1st round. The "ace" of that group has been dealing with injuries and the rest were cheap and put up good numbers.

And this happens every year.

[Ken]

I had lunch the other day with a friend I hadn't seen in a while and asked him how his teams were doing. He was first place at the break in one, topped out in all the offensive categories, lots of FAAB pitching.

Yup I'm trying to keep up with him, I'm in 2nd. The only chance I see is I have half my FAAB money left whereas his pitching overhaul ate up all of his. He has a really good team though. I'm hoping mid-season league changes provide some FAAB opportunities for me since it is an ONLY league.

He tried to pry Sale away from me to add an ace to that group but we couldn't find a match.

[FBP]

The stakes are higher than ever, but the problem is the same. Pitchers are a risky proposition.

Take a $40 hitter. If he has an off year, he still might be worth $25 or $30. On the other hand, a guy like Porcello now has negative value in many formats, so an owner who bought or kept him killed a chance to roster another guy and spent however much money he cost. So how do you quantify the risk? You could say "hey, these guys should be worth about $45 if they have a good year, but some of them will flame out, so I'll discount them all by 30%", but you won't get any starting pitchers.

Even the four top guys...which would I have rather had in 2016? A $5 fast-balling set-up guy who gave me 5 wins, 7 saves, a 2.49 ERA, a 1.09 whip and 105 Ks, plus a $50 hitter, or 149 innings of Clayton Kershaw? Kershaw was amazing, but without the large numbers of innings the superior quality numbers don't provide the impact to justify the price. There just doesn't seem to be an answer. It's a mystery wrapped in a riddle.

I don't know. I hate starting pitchers. I used to sum up fantasy baseball in two five-word phrases: "Starters will break your heart." "But rookies are the worst."

I had lunch the other day with a friend I hadn't seen in a while and asked him how his teams were doing. He was first place at the break in one, topped out in all the offensive categories, lots of FAAB pitching. I asked about the other, and he shook his head. "I bought Bumgarner and Syndergaard." I told him, "Starters will...."

My moniker FBP stands for Frustrated By Pitching

[joncarlos]

Pitchers can get hurt any time. But they're discounted because you don't know if they'll get hurt OR if they'll randomly Porcello (I mean suck).

We can safely remove the suck risk at this point, so the discount is less. You can even argue that a guy who's thrown 100 IP this year has lessened the injury risk.

Power has deflated the value of HR only guys. EE may have been a 3rd rounder coming into the season but a .250-35-100 guy might not be a 3rd rounder now.

So the value of one asset has gone up and the other has gone down. Ask that Kluber owner if he'd consider... I don't know, Elvis Andrus? Dee Gordon? Jose Ramirez? Given how hard AVG and SB are to find, he might think about it. [Yes, that sounds crazy. Andrus is the 10th hitter on the player rater, Gordon 14th, Ramirez 8th]

[Ken]

We can safely remove the suck risk at this point, so the discount is less. You can even argue that a guy who's thrown 100 IP this year has lessened the injury risk.

Why can we safely remove the suck risk? I think it can happen at any point in time. I don't think that risk is aware of seasonal boundaries.
Also, why is throwing 100 IP this year lessening injury risk going forward?

[revo]

The problem with pitchers is the injury risk is far more devastating from a time missed perspective.

A batter gets hit by a pitch and breaks his hand, he's back in 6 weeks. A pitcher has elbow issues and he's gone for 18 months.

As far as Kluber, there are very, very few hitters I'd consider for him. EE is a great offer, but as I said, I'd pass.

[Ken]

As far as Kluber, there are very, very few hitters I'd consider for him. EE is a great offer, but as I said, I'd pass.

Which of the following would you not consider?

Trout, Betts, Altuve, Bryant, Goldschmidt,
Machado, Harper, Blackmon, Seager,
Votto, Judge, Springer, Correa