2K11: Ryan Vogelsong - SP

[revo]

Regress to the mean isn't the gambler's fallacy. If the mean for Vogelsong is a 5.00 ERA, then regress to the mean says he'll pitch with a 5.00 ERA the rest of the way, not whatever it would take him to bring his season ERA to 5.

OK, so let's assume he pitches with a 5.00 ERA the rest of the way, and ends the year with about 185 IP. That means he'll end up somewhere around a 3.70 ERA for the season, which is very respectable -- especially considering his career best with more than 100 IP was a 6.50 ERA in 2004. Of course, that means if you buy him now according to JJ, you're not getting the pitcher you thought you were getting, which makes sense.

Looking at his career stats, this breakout is just plain nuts, possibly on a par with Bautista (if he can keep it up). At least Bautista showed some power despite being mediocre. This guy was just flat out abysmal! He had a career mark of 5.90 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP prior to this season.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I watched part of the game he pitched last night, starting in the 5th inning, through the 7th. His command was amazing. Whiteside would put up the target, and Vogelsong would hit it. That just doesn't happen. The average miss from catcher target for a major-league pitcher is around one foot. Consequently, Vogelsong was getting strike calls on pitches six inches off the plate. The umps will give you those if you are hitting the target like Vogelsong was last night. He is just locked in right now.

[overkill94]

Looking at his career stats, this breakout is just plain nuts, possibly on a par with Bautista (if he can keep it up). At least Bautista showed some power despite being mediocre. This guy was just flat out abysmal! He had a career mark of 5.90 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP prior to this season.

He at least had some top prospect pedigree on his side. I'm all about the post-hype sleeper and while Vogelsong is a pretty extreme example, it still helps to know that at one time he had the goods to possibly be as good as he is now.

[joncarlos]

He at least had some top prospect pedigree on his side. I'm all about the post-hype sleeper and while Vogelsong is a pretty extreme example, it still helps to know that at one time he had the goods to possibly be as good as he is now.

Is there any precedent for a team being so completely unable to develop a player and then seeing him turn into an all-star somewhere else once he got some competent coaching? Perhaps another player who was Vogelsong's teammate somewhere in Pennslyvania?

[Trautdiggity]

Ruh Roh Raggie

[revo]

another solid start, another ND for NL All-Star Ryan Vogelsong.

[Judge Jude]

Bochy had 4 manager's choices, and picked Beltran plus 3 Giants pitchers - none of them a rock-solid selection (Vogelsong is a little light on IP at 77 when he was picked).

If I were another NL manager, I'd cross off any Giants from consideration with a managerial pick next year. The question would be if I'd let Bochy know.

[The Dane]

If I were another NL manager, I'd cross off any Giants from consideration with a managerial pick next year. The question would be if I'd let Bochy know.

This is how it is. Remember that whole Victorino-over-Panda debacle a couple of years ago? That was more obvious than this, in my opinion. If there aren't four Giants pitchers in the All-Star game, then it's skewed anyway. They are defending World Champs and still winning with the worst offense in baseball. That pitching staff is historic. You could almost take four at random and they'd deserve it.

[Judge Jude]

The fact that other managers have been jerks doesn't make this right.
And I don't recall a manager in the "new era" using up 3 of his 4 picks on his own team.
Taking one of those guys when another MGR might not take any - okay.
But THREE?

Bochy is being a pig, and should be called out on it and see his team pay for it down the road (to the extent that anyone really cares, admittedly).

Number of Giants in top 10 in NL in ERA+?
Zero.

Don't like ERA?
How about plain old ERA, not adjusted for park?
Number if Giants in top 10 in ERA?
Zero.
Because at the time of the picks, Vogelsong didn't even have enough IP to qualify for the ERA title.

And none in top 8 of IP, either.

And their "historic" pitching has an ERA+ of 115, while the Braves are at 126, same as the Phillies.
The Rockies are at 114.

[mjl]

The fact that other managers have been jerks doesn't make this right.
And I don't recall a manager in the "new era" using up 3 of his 4 picks on his own team.
Taking one of those guys when another MGR might not take any - okay.
But THREE?

In 2006, Ozzie Guillen took four players that he had to take to be their teams' representatives, then with his last three picks took Paul Konerko, Mark Buehrle, and Bobby Jenks. He admitted that he was explicitly choosing his own players.

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2006/07/ozzie-ozzie-ozzie.html

- Mike

[Judge Jude]

Thanks, MJL.

So White Sox players also should have been excised from the consideration list for the next year or two.

Unfortunately, until managers realize that they can't benefit from this nonsense in the long run, this will continue to happen.

If Bud Selig was still alive, maybe he'd only allow the manager to choose 1 of his own players. I could live with 1 "hometown cooking" pick as a perk, I guess. But not 3.

[revo]

That's not terribly fair, because Vogelsong led the NL in ERA when he qualified this week, but because he pitched today, had fallen short. As of right now, he's 2nd in the NL in ERA.

If you want to trash "managerial liberties," how does CJ Wilson beat out Alexi Ogando? Except we know Ranger mgmt was concerned about Ogando's workload?

[Judge Jude]

(clarifying: the shaky Wilson pick was by the players. Bochy picked Lincecum, Cain, Vogelsong, and Clippard).

And yeah, when the picks were made, a guy who didn't have an IP per G got picked. He's had a great run, but you can't pick the short-IP guy and the off-year stud SP and the other SP who was good but not awesome this year). Having 4 Giants pitcher is absurd.

And I have no problem with other picks being criticized.

I don't even care as much about the Jeter or Chipper picks, any style. They're Hall of Famers, and fans want to see them.

But the cynical "I only care about my team" stuff demeans every jerk manager who maximizes and abuses the privilege. And the team should get ignored for consideration in subseqent years. They set the terms of engagement, and should accept the consequences.

Again, I'll give the manager one freebie, and I'd respect even more the manager who doesn't exercise it even more (assuming there isn't a glaring omission).

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/13236/cc-mccutchen-lead-list-of-all-star-snubs

[chancellor]

Well, Jude, using your logic, the fans want to see Lincicum, too - he's one of the most popular pitchers in terms of recognition and fan draw. Vogelsong clearly is deserving. That leaves only Cain as questionable, and I don't see him as some slug; he has good "popular" numbers with a 3 ERA and 7 wins, and good "saber" numbers with over a 3:1 K:BB ratio, sub 1.1 WHIP, and a BAA of sub .230, in line with his recent norms.

I'm no Giants fan, and sure, there might have been another pick as worthy as Cain, but I'm struggling seeing how he's undeserving.

[Judge Jude]

I think Lincecum is fine in terms of his 2 Cy Youngs if you want to go there, OR the sentimental pick on a Vogelsong in spite of his being short in IP. Both - you're really, really pushing it. And after that, picking Cain is preposterous. Dude, there are 15 other teams in the league.

Ian Kennedy, Tommy Hanson, and Craig Kimbrel, among others, say hi.

In simplest terms, no other manager would have picked all 3 Giants.

This has nothing to do with Bochy - or Guillen. The process is ridiculous and should be changed.

Is that a debatable point? Does anyone think it's a good idea for THREE players not chosen by the fans or the players to be on the team just because of who the manager is?