James Paxton or Danny Duffy

[Rush]

AL only

Who would you rank higher and why? I have a chance to pick up one of them in a trade.

Concerns:
CBS guys are talking that Duffy is down over 2 mph from last spring, plus he's pitching in the WBC.

Both seemed to hit a bit of wall late last season.

[Hammer]

Duffy andits not close for me

[revo]

Duffy andits not close for me

I agree with this. Paxton may make some inroads, but Duffy's already done it.

[joncarlos]

Straight up, no dollar values, I guess I take Duffy. But I think they're very close in value, which I don't think their $ values or ADPs would agree with.

[Rush]

This a potential trade.
Both players are $5 - I'd be trading Sam Dyson, who is also a $5. I have multiple closers, Diaz $5, Colome $1, and Allen $13 too. I thought Dyson's hold on the job is most precarious.

[Piney Boy]

Go for Duffy.

[Ken]

This a potential trade.
Both players are $5 - I'd be trading Sam Dyson, who is also a $5. I have multiple closers, Diaz $5, Colome $1, and Allen $13 too. I thought Dyson's hold on the job is most precarious.

Agree, get Duffy

[Redbirds Fan]

I like Duffy. I followed him at NWA, but he broke my heart when he first came up.

It bothers me a little that he doesn't strike people out in the majors, but he did better in 2016, so he may have acquired that skill. All in all, I think it's the best play.

[Ken]

I like Duffy. I followed him at NWA, but he broke my heart when he first came up.

It bothers me a little that he doesn't strike people out in the majors, but he did better in 2016, so he may have acquired that skill. All in all, I think it's the best play.

So this is a good point to key on and leads to another brief discussion potentially. Duffy K'd 9.4 per 9 last year which was significantly above his career average of 7.8. Along with this rise, we see an increase in his velocity as well, which is unusual for a guy who has been in the league for 5 years. His fastball went from ~92/93 over the previous few years to the 95/96 range. This increase actually started late 2015.

One concern, is whether he can continue pitching like the Duffy of 2016 or whether he reverts back. And I'm seeing that his fastball has been around 92/93 again this spring. A slight cause for concern for me, worth monitoring.

[Rush]

So this is a good point to key on and leads to another brief discussion potentially. Duffy K'd 9.4 per 9 last year which was significantly above his career average of 7.8. Along with this rise, we see an increase in his velocity as well, which is unusual for a guy who has been in the league for 5 years. His fastball went from ~92/93 over the previous few years to the 95/96 range. This increase actually started late 2015.

One concern, is whether he can continue pitching like the Duffy of 2016 or whether he reverts back. And I'm seeing that his fastball has been around 92/93 again this spring. A slight cause for concern for me, worth monitoring.

That is the reason I threw out the question of Paxton or Duffy, is the drop in velocity this spring a concern, and how effective will he be if he doesn't get back that.

[DMT]

I'd go with Paxton. The only thing keeping him from greatness is his health. Duffy has been getting lots of praise from the experts, but he really faded down the stretch and if his velocity is down, then he's back to the guy with a career ERA above 4.

[Redbirds Fan]

So this is a good point to key on and leads to another brief discussion potentially. Duffy K'd 9.4 per 9 last year which was significantly above his career average of 7.8. Along with this rise, we see an increase in his velocity as well, which is unusual for a guy who has been in the league for 5 years. His fastball went from ~92/93 over the previous few years to the 95/96 range. This increase actually started late 2015.

One concern, is whether he can continue pitching like the Duffy of 2016 or whether he reverts back. And I'm seeing that his fastball has been around 92/93 again this spring. A slight cause for concern for me, worth monitoring.

His three full seasons of K/9 have been 6.81, 6.72 and 9.42, so there may be some recency bias in the notion that he is a strikeout pitcher, although he did strikeout everybody in Northwest Arkansas and lots of guys elsewhere in the minors.

[Sour Masher]

That is the reason I threw out the question of Paxton or Duffy, is the drop in velocity this spring a concern, and how effective will he be if he doesn't get back that.

Yeah, not only might he be less effective, he may be on the verge of injury. Isn't there a strong correlation between sudden, significant increase in pitch velocity and injury the next year? I'd look at how much effort Duffy was adding last year for that extra velocity. If it came with clear effort, rather than new mechanics or workout regime, he may have put too much strain on his elbow, which is why he has fallen back down in velocity.

[dslaw]

I'd go Paxton. Probably more because I drafted him than anything else. Same age, Duffy has had success and Paxton has been blah. But one of those gut feelings for this year that I think Paxton starts 30 times and puts it together.