2017 RJ Mock One Discussion Thread

[Piney Boy]

Once all the starter spots are filled I'm going to do some macro analysis comparing teams based on Steamer projections. Looks like we only have the following starting spots remaining:

joncarlos - mi
mgwiz22 - p
chancellor - c
hornsby - p
bucky - UT
big tymer - mi
piney - c/mi

Why is my MI not filled?

[kawaise]

Why is my MI not filled?

Your MI is filled.

Maybe he was going by the rosters I was posting. Even though you posted Carpenter as 2b when you picked him in the 4th round, I think I may have overlooked that and put him in one of your corner positions. I fixed your roster, however, a few days ago to show Carpenter at MI - and this morning I moved him to 2b, and put Hernandez in MI.

[chancellor]

Filled my C position. Not that it'll help.

I'm in airplanes most all tomorrow, but not up for a long time so I don't think it'll be an issue.

[Ken]

Your MI is filled.

Maybe he was going by the rosters I was posting. Even though you posted Carpenter as 2b when you picked him in the 4th round, I think I may have overlooked that and put him in one of your corner positions. I fixed your roster, however, a few days ago to show Carpenter at MI - and this morning I moved him to 2b, and put Hernandez in MI.

Exactly right

[Ken]

Now that everyone has filled in their lineups, here is a spreadsheet I put together for some macro analysis based on Steamer projections:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qtJE8bw9rvqW8A85keO45WY4OVEsDlStpjnMElIf0bY/edit?usp=sharing

However, before anyone complains, some caveats and nuggets:

1) I did not draft with steamer projections in mind. If I had it would have skewed the numbers. Any time you use a set of projections and then rank your competitors, you'll generally come out "ahead" if you are the only one using those projections. I put this together after drafting my lineup not before.
2) Take these with a heavy heavy grain of salt, a lot of the "ranking" is simply determined by playing time projections. For example, my team is heavily penalized for Moncada, who is not projected for a full season of ABs, but obviously if he's not playing I'm not starting him. The same goes for all teams.
3) Even the best projections are very far from perfect so again, if we were taking this too seriously it would be an exercise in futility. Instead it is just one indicator and hopefully allows everyone to have another data point to analyze where their strengths and weaknesses are. My biggest weakness is ignoring the AVG category, and this is evident in the analysis.

I put the team pick order in the spreadsheet to see if there are any patterns. Overall the numbers are pretty scattered, but Piney and Big Tymer (picks 1 and 2) are both top 4.

Let me know if anything I need to adjust, it's certainly possible that there are some mistakes.

[joncarlos]

Now that everyone has filled in their lineups, here is a spreadsheet I put together for some macro analysis based on Steamer projections:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qtJE8bw9rvqW8A85keO45WY4OVEsDlStpjnMElIf0bY/edit?usp=sharing

However, before anyone complains, some caveats and nuggets:

1) I did not draft with steamer projections in mind. If I had it would have skewed the numbers. Any time you use a set of projections and then rank your competitors, you'll generally come out "ahead" if you are the only one using those projections. I put this together after drafting my lineup not before.
2) Take these with a heavy heavy grain of salt, a lot of the "ranking" is simply determined by playing time projections. For example, my team is heavily penalized for Moncada, who is not projected for a full season of ABs, but obviously if he's not playing I'm not starting him. The same goes for all teams.
3) Even the best projections are very far from perfect so again, if we were taking this too seriously it would be an exercise in futility. Instead it is just one indicator and hopefully allows everyone to have another data point to analyze where their strengths and weaknesses are. My biggest weakness is ignoring the AVG category, and this is evident in the analysis.

I put the team pick order in the spreadsheet to see if there are any patterns. Overall the numbers are pretty scattered, but Piney and Big Tymer (picks 1 and 2) are both top 4.

Let me know if anything I need to adjust, it's certainly possible that there are some mistakes.

This is great work. Definitely appreciated.

Suffice it to say, steamer does NOT like my pitching. And that's WITH them giving Neris 27 saves. Mostly, steamer hates Marco Estrada (4.69 ERA/1.30 WHIP) and isn't in love with Daniel Norris either (1.32 WHIP).

Interesting that SBs are so closely bunched - there's a 118, two 117s, a 113, a 106, a 103, a 102 and a 101.

[revo]

Now that everyone has filled in their lineups, here is a spreadsheet I put together for some macro analysis based on Steamer projections:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qtJE8bw9rvqW8A85keO45WY4OVEsDlStpjnMElIf0bY/edit?usp=sharing

However, before anyone complains, some caveats and nuggets:

1) I did not draft with steamer projections in mind. If I had it would have skewed the numbers. Any time you use a set of projections and then rank your competitors, you'll generally come out "ahead" if you are the only one using those projections. I put this together after drafting my lineup not before.
2) Take these with a heavy heavy grain of salt, a lot of the "ranking" is simply determined by playing time projections. For example, my team is heavily penalized for Moncada, who is not projected for a full season of ABs, but obviously if he's not playing I'm not starting him. The same goes for all teams.
3) Even the best projections are very far from perfect so again, if we were taking this too seriously it would be an exercise in futility. Instead it is just one indicator and hopefully allows everyone to have another data point to analyze where their strengths and weaknesses are. My biggest weakness is ignoring the AVG category, and this is evident in the analysis.

I put the team pick order in the spreadsheet to see if there are any patterns. Overall the numbers are pretty scattered, but Piney and Big Tymer (picks 1 and 2) are both top 4.

Let me know if anything I need to adjust, it's certainly possible that there are some mistakes.

I've entered everything into Rotolab, and also have Big Tymer on top (BBHQ projections, with some personal edits).

[harmon]

I've entered everything into Rotolab, and also have Big Tymer on top (BBHQ projections, with some personal edits).

Able to share this?

[revo]

Able to share this?

TEAM RN HR RBI SB AVG WN SV SO ERA RATIO
tymer 15.0 15.0 15.0 7.0 11.0 10.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 63.0 57.0 120.0
kawaise 14.0 8.5 14.0 5.0 16.0 12.0 10.5 14.0 10.0 13.0 57.5 59.5 117.0
DMT 16.0 13.0 13.0 3.0 14.0 16.0 2.5 15.0 2.0 9.0 59.0 44.5 103.5
quoin 13.0 16.0 16.0 1.0 1.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 16.0 16.0 47.0 51.0 98.0
madducks 7.0 10.0 6.0 16.0 7.0 2.0 16.0 2.0 13.0 15.0 46.0 48.0 94.0
hornsby 12.0 11.5 10.0 4.0 8.0 1.0 12.0 1.0 15.0 14.0 45.5 43.0 88.5
revo 6.0 7.0 11.0 8.0 6.0 13.0 10.5 10.0 9.0 6.0 38.0 48.5 86.5
ken 3.0 8.5 1.0 15.0 4.0 11.0 8.0 9.0 14.0 12.0 31.5 54.0 85.5
hammer 10.0 3.0 12.0 6.0 13.0 6.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 8.0 44.0 38.0 82.0
harmon 2.0 11.5 7.0 10.5 2.0 15.0 4.0 11.0 4.0 11.0 33.0 45.0 78.0
joncarlos 8.0 5.0 8.0 10.5 9.0 3.5 14.0 7.0 5.0 7.0 40.5 36.5 77.0
chancellor 11.0 4.0 9.0 9.0 12.0 8.0 6.5 3.0 6.0 3.0 45.0 26.5 71.5
benjamin 1.0 2.0 2.0 14.0 10.0 5.0 2.5 16.0 11.0 5.0 29.0 39.5 68.5
Piney 5.0 6.0 3.5 13.0 5.0 3.5 15.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 32.5 34.5 67.0
mgwiz22 9.0 1.0 3.5 12.0 15.0 14.0 1.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 40.5 26.0 66.5
bucky 4.0 14.0 5.0 2.0 3.0 7.0 6.5 13.0 1.0 1.0 28.0 28.5 56.5

[madducks]

Steamer projections have me ranked 9 places lower. So obviously Rotolab is more accurate.

[madducks]

Interesting that Steamer projects Miller to get more saves than Allen (20-18). And poor Jim Johnson gets no respect with only 11 projected saves.

[harmon]

Steamer loves that Korean experience for Eric Thames. .272 30HR 84RBI 13SB ...... move over Goldschmidt.

[kawaise]

Are we doing a six or seven-man bench?

[chancellor]

Steamer loves that Korean experience for Eric Thames. .272 30HR 84RBI 13SB ...... move over Goldschmidt.

Idiots. Brewers will be fortunate to get 2/3rds that. Really fortunate.

[Ken]

Idiots. Brewers will be fortunate to get 2/3rds that. Really fortunate.

Ehh, I don't think the people running the projection system are unintelligent. Rather, the issue is the inability of any reasonable system to translate KBO data to MLB data.

A silly analogy -- You walk into a 2nd grade classroom and find yourself to be the smartest person in the room. Based on that information alone, please tell me how you will compare to the student body at MIT. Show your work