Value of Kepler

[Hornsby]

Yeah, I was thinking about this thread too ... I think we're entering uncharted territory, traditional models don't account for the run he's on ... Maybe a coach tweaked him to something, or maybe he sold his soul to the devil ...

Even better...Mr. October.

CLEVELAND — Don’t tell Mr. October. His ego hardly needs the help.

However, something seemed to click for Twins rookie Max Kepler after he received a brief hitting tutorial from hall of famer Reggie Jackson before a June 25 game at Yankee Stadium.

Monday’s three-homer explosion for Kepler, just the fifth in 56 years of Twins baseball, gave him 12 homers, 32 runs batted in and a .649 slugging percentage in his past 31 games (114 at-bats) since he met Jackson. The message was about using batting practice to spray the ball around the field rather than seeing how far you can hit the ball to the pull side.

“I’m 70 years old and I can do that,” Jackson famously barked. “Let me see you go the other way.”


In his first 31 games (and 89 at-bats) this season prior to that summit, Kepler slugged just .416 with two homers and 12 runs batted in.

Any connection?

“It enlightened me to work on different stuff in BP which could translate over into the games,” said Kepler, who hit his 15th homer on Tuesday. “It’s not like everyday I remind myself what Reggie said, but I have a plan in BP now.”

http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/02/how-meeting-reggie-jackson-helped-unlock-max-keplers-power-swing/

[Ken]

Was that because of Mookie or the guys you were trading with? Betts' future value has been pretty high since 2013 when he hit .314/.417/.506 with 15 HR and 38 SB as a 20 year old in A ball.

They are the about same age. That year Kepler hit .237/.312/.424 in A ball with 9 HR and 2 SB.

Kepler had a very good year last year in AA, hitting .322/.416/.531 as a 22 year old. But keep in mind, at the same time Betts was quite good for the Red Sox.

From a fantasy baseball perspective we're talking apples and oranges here.

Don't get me wrong here, I like Kepler (I have him in one of my main leagues), but expectations should be tempered. He's not Mookie Betts.

I still don't think he's worth Betts, but dang, I was wrong in my evaluation for sure!

[mjl]

ah, for the days when someone could offer Puig for Kepler with a straight face.

(technically, he also asked for a minor league draft pick)

(technically, Puig's also on a worse contract)

(technically, this was less than two weeks ago)

probably for the best I didn't take it.

[hacko]

ah, for the days when someone could offer Puig for Kepler with a straight face.

(technically, he also asked for a minor league draft pick)

(technically, Puig's also on a worse contract)

(technically, this was less than two weeks ago)

probably for the best I didn't take it.

Yea like mookie for me when he was first coming up. I offered Kepler In a bunch of offers and got no nibbles - Thankfully.

I had Kepler, Story and Reed at the Beginning of the year and have tried to trade all three. Nothing for Story(tried to trade in week 2), or Kepler (all year) but got Bruce, Cespeda and Cory Allen for Reed ( From a dumper)

[Hornsby]

ah, for the days when someone could offer Puig for Kepler with a straight face.

(technically, he also asked for a minor league draft pick)

(technically, Puig's also on a worse contract)

(technically, this was less than two weeks ago)

probably for the best I didn't take it.

Maybe, maybe not...it's not like Puig doesn't have all the talent in the world, in fact, he was doing quite well since coming off the DL. I don't get the demotion, it's not going to do anything other than offer the Dodgers a place to stash him while they try to trade him for a dime on the dollar.

As far as you not taking Puig in a deal, if I'd have offer the same deal 3 weeks prior, you'd probably have jumped at it. I just had the misfortune of having bad timing...yeah, that's it.

And while I really like Kepler, let's not measure him for a bust in the HOF quite yet, many a rookie has had a great streak, followed by the league learning his weaknesses and how to exploit them.

[Mithrandir]

Maybe, maybe not...it's not like Puig doesn't have all the talent in the world, in fact, he was doing quite well since coming off the DL. I don't get the demotion, it's not going to do anything other than offer the Dodgers a place to stash him while they try to trade him for a dime on the dollar.

As far as you not taking Puig in a deal, if I'd have offer the same deal 3 weeks prior, you'd probably have jumped at it. I just had the misfortune of having bad timing...yeah, that's it.

And while I really like Kepler, let's not measure him for a bust in the HOF quite yet, many a rookie has had a great streak, followed by the league learning his weaknesses and how to exploit them.

I wouldn't have taken Puig in pretty much any deal within the last year or so that involved me giving up a player with even a modicum of hope..

[mjl]

yeah, just teasing. Horns knows I like Puig, I don't understand the demotion either unless his personality issues are just off the charts bad.

[hacko]

yeah, just teasing. Horns knows I like Puig, I don't understand the demotion either unless his personality issues are just off the charts bad.

Supposedly Kershaw told the Dodgers Puig had to go.

[onejayhawk]

I still don't think he's worth Betts, but dang, I was wrong in my evaluation for sure!

On reconsideration, they are quite different. It does not look like Kepler will hit for average and there is no comparison running bases. That said, I think Kepler may be the better real life player. His BB% is already good, hence his OBA, and he is a much better defender.

J

[mjl]

random numbers about him that I don't know how to tie together into a narrative:

all numbers out of 277 people with 200+ PAs this season

.264 BABIP (231st)
265th in LD%
135th in GB%
80th in FB%

24.4% HR/FB (14th)
18.1% soft-hit (140th)
41.3% med-hit (264th)
40.6% hard-hit (20th)

That profile doesn't make sense. I guess the BABIP is depressed because of the high HR/FB, but having an average soft-hit, super-low med-hit, super-high hard-hit seems weird, as well as the really low LD%.

[Sour Masher]

On reconsideration, they are quite different. It does not look like Kepler will hit for average and there is no comparison running bases. That said, I think Kepler may be the better real life player. His BB% is already good, hence his OBA, and he is a much better defender.

J

I think we need to slow down the Kepler hype train a bit, if we are ready to proclaim him better than Betts.

[Funkley]

Not that I want to show up and be old school baseball guy but just for a moment, setting the stats aside......wow do I like Kepler's swing!! So much more polished and repeatable than last year. It certainly looks like he's been working hard on his craft.

[TranaGreg]

... It does not look like Kepler will hit for average...

what are you basing this on?

In 2015 in 482 ABs at AA he hit .322
In 2016 in 128 ABs at AAA he hit .282

He's made decent contact, and takes walks as you've already noted; given his improvements across levels I think there are good signs that he could be at least a league-average hitter for BA, possibly a fair bit better.

[onejayhawk]

I think we need to slow down the Kepler hype train a bit, if we are ready to proclaim him better than Betts.

Only in real baseball. It's might become better because of the defense.

what are you basing this on?

In 2015 in 482 ABs at AA he hit .322
In 2016 in 128 ABs at AAA he hit .282

He's made decent contact, and takes walks as you've already noted; given his improvements across levels I think there are good signs that he could be at least a league-average hitter for BA, possibly a fair bit better.

But Betts hits .300.

It's one thing to say Kepler is as valuable in real baseball. SB count for squat and defense counts for a lot. In fantasy, Betts is better. Even if Kepler hits for similar average and more power, the SB will dominate.

J

[mjl]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-case-study-in-pitch-recognition-with-max-kepler/