Villar

[DMT]

Tonight, 24th SB along with a GW HR (#6).

[Teenwolf]

He's the most obvious regression candidate in all of baseball by a fairly long shot. Steamer has him hitting .245 with 5 HR and 18 SB going forward. I think that's optimistic.

It's been 15 games since you stated this (in the original Villar 2K16 thread). Since Jun. 1, he's hit .288 with 4 HR and 5 SB. Only 100 more games to get another 1 HR and 13 SB.... at his pace, those 13 SB will come in about 30-40 games.

[Mithrandir]

Yeah, so far so good for Villar owners. A .410 BABIP or whatever is not a guarantee of regression, it's just an extremely strong indicator. You think he's going to be fantastic going forward. I don't. That's ok. Frankly, I don't own any shares of the guy and have no intentions of trading for him so it really doesn't matter all that much to me anyways. There just are not very many people who even try to offer opinions or analysis on RotoJunkie anymore so I've tried to fill that gap. Probably not all that worthwhile.

It really depends if the analysis you or anyone else provide actually prove to be correct regarding future produnction. Are the metrics actually correct more often than not when projecting future performance? I have no idea, but assume they are very useful.

[Ken]

Yeah, so far so good for Villar owners. A .410 BABIP or whatever is not a guarantee of regression, it's just an extremely strong indicator. You think he's going to be fantastic going forward. I don't. That's ok. Frankly, I don't own any shares of the guy and have no intentions of trading for him so it really doesn't matter all that much to me anyways. There just are not very many people who even try to offer opinions or analysis on RotoJunkie anymore so I've tried to fill that gap. Probably not all that worthwhile.

I'll play along.

I'd admit, I came into the season extremely skeptical on Villar. I had Villar ranked high enough to where I should have grabbed him late in a 15 team auction (same one Doig started this thread on) but I made a last minute decision to go with another player I had ranked lower, ignoring my rankings. Obviously I wish I had not, Doig scooped him up in the reserves in a wise move.

But I don't see any reason why he cannot be worth ~$10-$15 next year. So he'd certainly be a fine keeper on a $10 A contract.

We don't think of Villar as a power bat, but he had ~15 HR power in the minors. I don't see any reason he could not hit ~12 a year. And combining that with a decent BA and tons of speed gives you a good shortstop (not great like Altuve/Correa obviously, but certainly good). His BABIP will regress, and I'd expect him to hit ~.250-.260 the rest of the way. But that would put him at ~.275/.360/.410 with 12 HR and 45+ SB. There's a ton of value there. I don't see any reason why he can't continue being THAT guy. (not the .300/.450 guy but he doesn't have to be that to have value)

[Gregg]

I payed $15 in our 12 team NL only ultra 5x5. He went near the end when some others had money and Segura had went for the crazy price of $27. I felt at the time I should get some stats out of him, but did not think he would be this good.

I have had some offers, but none that were even close to what I would entertain. I am fine keeping him at this price for next year.

[pitbull]

Arcia has played 2B for the last 3 games although he is still viewed as their long term SS. http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/articl...cia-playing-2b

[revo]

Arcia has played 2B for the last 3 games although he is still viewed as their long term SS. http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/articl...cia-playing-2b

Boy, that GM spews out a lot of BS when all he has to say is "Dude, have you seen how good Jonathan Villar has been?"

[pitbull]

He was just giving his theory of "development philosophy".

[kawaise]

League members in my NL-only 5x5 format are making offers, but there's been nothing that really makes me sit up and take notice. I, too, have him for $10A. He didn't go at our auction; I picked him up in the first week's transactions.

I'm in first place in my league, and have a commanding lead in steals. The closest someone has come to getting my attention is a pair of last year players - Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Melancon in exchange for Villar and Neris ($10A). I'm just not convinced Gonzalez can produce the way he has in the past.

[Teenwolf]

I gave into the pressure and traded my $10 Villar in the NL league I'm leading by 15 pts. Hopefully it will be enough to lock in a title.

I dealt Villar $10A + J. Ross $2B in exchange for Belt $30A + Maeda + $23A + Hendricks $15A + Colon $3A.

Despite my continued belief in Villar, I needed one big trade, and i love my other big trade chips nearly equally (Margot, W. Contreras, Syndergaard, all $5, none require extensions)... I could have acquired Kershaw instead for Contreras + Margot, but that felt too steep, and offered less return than the 3 SP + Belt.

[DMT]

HRs #14 & 15 tonight.

I outbid the guy in 2nd for Villar in week 2 or 3. Hands down, our league MVP.

ETA: By $1

[Ken]

HRs #14 & 15 tonight.

I outbid the guy in 2nd for Villar in week 2 or 3. Hands down, our league MVP.

Since the discussion above in mid June, Villar has CONTINUED to hit with an extremely high BABIP - .395 since June 17th with 7 HR and 28 SB

He has not regressed.

[Gregg]

Villar's 52 steals have been the attention-grabber for fantasy owners, but he's on a power binge now, having bopped four homers in his last four games; with 15 on the year, he's rounding out his fantasy line in impressive fashion. Along with his strong .299 batting average and 95-run pace, he's actually driven in 54 runners while almost exclusively hitting leadoff for Milwaukee. Those numbers are reminiscent of Jose Reyes' prime years.-this sent to me on my player news CBS.