Villar

[GwynnInTheHall]

I know there's been talk of him throughout the season, but I have the guy at $10 first year in a 15 team standard mixed roto league and have an owner interested in dealing for him. I'm going for it, but what can I expect as value in return? Is he worth a replacement player and another non keeper stud (as Villar's numbers to date are stud worthy)?

This league has just endured an awful dump trade and I don't want to add fuel to the fire by getting too much in return so I'd like honest evaluation other than--get as much as you can for him.

Thanks guys.

[revo]

You said it yourself -- he's been a stud. So at his price, he's definitely worth a comparable replacement and another top player in a dump deal, absolutely.

[fuhrdog]

You said it yourself -- he's been a stud. So at his price, he's definitely worth a comparable replacement and another top player in a dump deal, absolutely.

Agreed. His babip and ld% will drop, but every time I catch one of his games, he is just flat out hitting the ball hard.

[Teenwolf]

Disagree with selling Villar at $10. I own him in both of my NL leagues at $10 and $13. I believe the reasons to hang onto him are twofold. 1) His legit 50 SB wheels are impossible to replace, even just looking at a 2016 title run. With SB down, he's a must-hold for me... 2) Lack of prospect pedigree will limit your return. People only buy into a breakout if there's significant pedigree behind him. Villar has negative pedigree (the stank of being dumped by Houston).

There was a great article on his breakout today on fangraphs. It talks about big improvements in selectivity, exit velocity, etc., all the good stuff. They conclude by saying that XBABIP doesn't properly account for 70 grade speed... and when you combine that speed with hard hit ground balls, it will lead to a higher than expected BABIP... maybe not a .300 BA, but .270 is possible, and if that comes with 10 HR, 80 Runs, 50 RBI, 50 SB... that's borderline unreplaceable. This all assumes the Villar breakout is legit, but on the off chance it is legit, I don't think any Villar owners will be compensated fairly until the 50 SB pace becomes an actual 50 SB season.

[pitbull]

I agree with Wolf. Last year with limited AB he did well and has carried that into this season,. Last 350 AB he is hitting .294. OBP .370. Not just a small sample and the guy is only 25.

[chancellor]

Teenwolf makes great points - which puts you in a tough position. Villar's value in fantasy terms, if he just stays somewhat close to the blistering pace he's at now, is huge. OTOH, there's a lot of perceived risk, too - no history, negative pedigree, plays on a pretty bad team, has a big name prospect right behind him and may need to switch positions.

I don't deal him for anything except a great return that helps me fill key roster holes. He's worth one excellent player and one role player or a couple of good to very good players if he's at $10.

[Rick Vaughn]

I'm hearing he could be traded, even with the favorable contract situation.

[Teenwolf]

Extremely obvious sell high, imo. The big concern is that you won't get adequate value because others don't believe (rightly, imo) in his talent.

I remember you saying the same sort of thing about Jose Bautista once upon a time, when he came from out of nowhere. I owned him for $7, and many people were dealing him for whatever they could get at the time, thinking his magic would prove to be a mirage. He won me my 1st championship with that year, and I probably wouldn't have gotten there if I dealt him for a smaller return, given his lack of proven pedigree at the time.

Sometimes guys come from out of nowhere, or take bigger developmental strides than anybody predicted. Sometimes guy are rushed to the majors at 21 or 22, and they struggle to adjust until their 3rd or 4th year, which is totally fine.

Nick Castellanos has a very similar amount of MLB time, is 10 months younger than Villar... is also breaking out this season. Yet because of his perceived pedigree, people are much more willing to buy into Castellanos' breakout than Villar's.

The point is, the most valuable information we have to use in evaluation is on field production. Even if Villar sees a BABIP regression to take him down to a .250 hitter, he's walking about 17% of the time... stealing at a 50-60 SB clip. Those skills (Speed & Discipline) don't go away. They also prop up a weak BA, so even if Villar's bat regresses... he's still a top leadoff hitter, and absolutely a $30 fantasy player.

If he gets moved from SS to 3B, or OF, even better! Versatility is king in roto.

[revo]

Teenwolf makes great points - which puts you in a tough position. Villar's value in fantasy terms, if he just stays somewhat close to the blistering pace he's at now, is huge. OTOH, there's a lot of perceived risk, too - no history, negative pedigree, plays on a pretty bad team, has a big name prospect right behind him and may need to switch positions.

I don't deal him for anything except a great return that helps me fill key roster holes. He's worth one excellent player and one role player or a couple of good to very good players if he's at $10.

Extremely obvious sell high, imo. The big concern is that you won't get adequate value because others don't believe (rightly, imo) in his talent.

I'm not a Villar owner, but:
1) he was a "pedigree" player as he was once ranked 94th on BA's Top 100 Prospects list (2011);
2) he does have a history, but not of this kind of BA; his other stats (SBs, BBs, Runs) all align with his MLB career norms; and he was a consistent 40-50 SB guy in the minors.
3) He's a classic "Increased Playing Time Breakout" profile: he never got an opportunity for 500+ ABs at the MLB level, but BR.com lists his 162 game average as .254/.326/.375 with 9 HRs, 68 Runs, 45 RBIs and 40 SBs. So let's say he upticks that a bit and improves to .265/.340/.415 with 11 HRs, 80 Runs, 55 RBIs and 45 SBs; at SS that's awesome.

So is he a sell-high from his .300/.400 profile? Sure. But he could still be a difference-maker if he can keep up a level of production just above his career norms for 500+ ABs.

[Teenwolf]

I've said it about a lot of players and have been right perhaps 95% of the time. I said it about Alex Guerrero and countless others. Does that make me right here, too? No, it doesn't mean anything (nor does it make me wrong or you right). Sometimes a bad bet will win the pot. That only means that you got lucky. Using a totally different player with an absolutely, completely different skillset and background is apropos of absolutely nothing.

Sell high. Easy call for me.

In a hypothetical deal, what would you expect back? If he can get you 2 big pieces, and you have a big SB lead, then sure. But top 20 production is hard to replace in a trade. I haven't had a single owner ask me about him in either of the leagues I own him, so I'm assuming his trade value is a fraction of his ceiling.

How do you replace his SB's? Villar has 23 SB. If you can get S. Marte (19 SB) or Upton (13 SB) or M. Smith (11 SB) as part of a deal... then I guess it doesn't hurt your SB's so badly. But Upton is the only one of those 3 likely available. Billy Hamilton is too flawed to take back in a trade. Everybody else in the NL has 8 SB or less... So you automatically lose SB in any Villar trade.

Plus, as you mention, lack of pedigree, and unsustainable BABIP is killing his perceived value. I just happen to believe that 70 grade speed can yield a .330-.350 BABIP, if there's quality to the contact, and the contact continues to make gains.

[Hammer]

In a hypothetical deal, what would you expect back? If he can get you 2 big pieces, and you have a big SB lead, then sure. But top 20 production is hard to replace in a trade. I haven't had a single owner ask me about him in either of the leagues I own him, so I'm assuming his trade value is a fraction of his ceiling.

How do you replace his SB's? Villar has 23 SB. If you can get S. Marte (19 SB) or Upton (13 SB) or M. Smith (11 SB) as part of a deal... then I guess it doesn't hurt your SB's so badly. But Upton is the only one of those 3 likely available. Billy Hamilton is too flawed to take back in a trade. Everybody else in the NL has 8 SB or less... So you automatically lose SB in any Villar trade.

Plus, as you mention, lack of pedigree, and unsustainable BABIP is killing his perceived value. I just happen to believe that 70 grade speed can yield a .330-.350 BABIP, if there's quality to the contact, and the contact continues to make gains.

Its impossible to find Villars SB in the infield this year. Only Altuve and Ed Nunez are with 10 steals of Villar. Thats a huge edge

[Mithrandir]

I've said it about a lot of players and have been right perhaps 95% of the time. I said it about Alex Guerrero and countless others. Does that make me right here, too? No, it doesn't mean anything (nor does it make me wrong or you right). Sometimes a bad bet will win the pot. That only means that you got lucky. Using a totally different player with an absolutely, completely different skillset and background is apropos of absolutely nothing.

Sell high. Easy call for me.

95%. Damn....you're good

[pitbull]

In a hypothetical deal, what would you expect back? If he can get you 2 big pieces, and you have a big SB lead, then sure. But top 20 production is hard to replace in a trade. I haven't had a single owner ask me about him in either of the leagues I own him, so I'm assuming his trade value is a fraction of his ceiling.

How do you replace his SB's? Villar has 23 SB. If you can get S. Marte (19 SB) or Upton (13 SB) or M. Smith (11 SB) as part of a deal... then I guess it doesn't hurt your SB's so badly. But Upton is the only one of those 3 likely available. Billy Hamilton is too flawed to take back in a trade. Everybody else in the NL has 8 SB or less... So you automatically lose SB in any Villar trade.

Plus, as you mention, lack of pedigree, and unsustainable BABIP is killing his perceived value. I just happen to believe that 70 grade speed can yield a .330-.350 BABIP, if there's quality to the contact, and the contact continues to make gains.

I agree with you on this especially the top 20 production. It would be easy to sell high but he would produce 40-50 SB over the next several seasons. I would be in the camp of keeping him unless I'm blown away by a deal that puts me over the top. The biggest question that I would have is what will the Brewers do. Are they going to trade Villar or keep him and work out different positions with Arcia slated for SS. In my NL league the team dumping for the season at the end of May traded Villar $9 and Adrian Gonzalez for Bour and Arcia. Looks like he traded away a keeper.

[revo]

I agree with you on this especially the top 20 production. It would be easy to sell high but he would produce 40-50 SB over the next several seasons. I would be in the camp of keeping him unless I'm blown away by a deal that puts me over the top. The biggest question that I would have is what will the Brewers do. Are they going to trade Villar or keep him and work out different positions with Arcia slated for SS. In my NL league the team dumping for the season at the end of May traded Villar $9 and Adrian Gonzalez for Bour and Arcia. Looks like he traded away a keeper.

Considering the Brewers struck rebuilding gold by acquiring Villar, it would make sense to have him shift over to second to replace the largely ineffective Scooter Gennett. A Villar/Arcia combo could be intact for the next decade......

[pitbull]

Considering the Brewers struck rebuilding gold by acquiring Villar, it would make sense to have him shift over to second to replace the largely ineffective Scooter Gennett. A Villar/Arcia combo could be intact for the next decade......

That could work. Villar has also played 3B. I would think the Brewers keeping Arcia in the minors would make the most sense at this point.