RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA Top 100" Version)

[rhd]

On a more selfish note, my 12-team (possibly 11) NL-only 5x5 keeper league (OBP) allows us one free keeper and I have the following options:

DeLeon - $5
Tapia - $3
Drury - $3
Nimmo - $1

DeLeon is highest on most lists, but this league favors young hitters waaaaay more than young pitchers so conceivably it would be easier to draft DeLeon during the regular auction than one of these other hitters at these prices. Tapia seems to have the most upside but is fairly far from the majors and has some warts in his game. Drury is one step away from the majors but unless Lamb gets injured or flops, there are a glut of mediocre 2B options already in Arizona that could be in his way. Nimmo has lost a lot of his prospect shine but this being an OBP league he could provide some nice value at $1. Thanks in advance!

Thanx for the response, Overkill.

If you want a hitter, I guess I'd go w the guy I have ranked higher, which is Tapia. But I'd be tempted to take Drury. The D'backs might not have a place for him now but long-term I think he has a reasonably good chance of being a regular. The one thing I'm pretty sure of is that I wouldnt take Nimmo.

[Cobain's Ghost]

Probably a topic for another thread, but are there any stats to show a) who currently active has the best stats at Coors Field and b) whether ground ball pitchers are in the main more successful that non ground ball pitchers?

new rockies gm = new successful coors field pitcher profile: high grade fastball + excellent command. the new theory is that breaking pitches that traditionally generate ground balls degrade too much at altitude to be useful, so starters who rely primarily on those pitches for success, or who have a high bb/9 (rex brothers) are no longer welcome in colorado.

Experimenting with New Template for Pitching at Altitude

Bridich determined that the quality of non-fastball pitches deteriorates significantly one mile above sea level. But the FBs are still the same at any altitude. He also figured that there will always be extra base runners due to the vastness of Coors Field from mishit balls that land somewhere safe. To compensate for that, he wanted pitchers with great control which is measured in the BB/9 stat to lighten up traffic on the base paths. So he cleaned house of pitchers that walk too many batters and started collecting pitchers with great FBs.

will it work? who knows? worth a shot, i guess, nothing else has.

[Sour Masher]

RHD, I know he doesn't qualify as a prospect any more, but what are your thoughts on Corey Knebel? I'm looking for a sneaky closer candidate, and I'm wondering if you think he has the skills to pay the bills. I realize Will Smith and maybe Jeffries is in front of him, but either might get dealt this year. Was Knebel ever someone you ranked/pegged as a future closer?

[rhd]

RHD, I know he doesn't qualify as a prospect any more, but what are your thoughts on Corey Knebel? I'm looking for a sneaky closer candidate, and I'm wondering if you think he has the skills to pay the bills. I realize Will Smith and maybe Jeffries is in front of him, but either might get dealt this year. Was Knebel ever someone you ranked/pegged as a future closer?

Thanx for another response, SourMasher.

For roto purposes, it's pretty futile to project minor league relievers as future closers because they almost never end up as such or if they ever do it's usually years down the line. I dont think I ever came close to putting Knebel on my top 150 and I probably projected him to be a potential future setup guy. I wouldnt count on him becoming the closer in Milwaukee, tho it could happen. I always like to take 2-3 good setup guys who might be in line for saves at some point for my reserve squad. Knebel strikes me as someone who might give you some value just as a setup guy. But there probably are a number of other setup guys I'd take before him (Mychal Givens and Silvino Bracho are 2 that come to mind). But he might be worth a flyer in a deep reserve draft.

[Pauly]

RHD- thanks for this list!

What's your take on Eddy Julio Martinez? I was surprised he did not make the 150. Im thinking he should be drafted in an NL only minor league draft...

[rhd]

RHD- thanks for this list!

What's your take on Eddy Julio Martinez? I was surprised he did not make the 150. Im thinking he should be drafted in an NL only minor league draft...

Thanx for your response, Pauly.

So far, I havent seen much of anyone get excited about Martinez except BP's Chris Crawford. He's not in any non-fantasy top 100 that I've seen other BP's, altho he was an HM on Keith Law's. He is in a couple of fantasy-related top 100's. The only scouting report I've seen is the recent one at BP. It says he's an exceptional athlete but raw. It says he has plus raw power, plus speed, double plus bat speed and is very good defensively w a plus arm. Even BP admits he's very risky and could be a 4th OFer as easily as a 5-tool player. So if you believe in him, he may be worth a pick in a deep league. Until I see someone else besides Crawford rave about him, he's likely to remain in the mid-range on my list, currently #229.

[Simon]

Thanx as always for the response, Sour Masher.

Yeah, White is not on anyone's list at all. But anyone who's followed my lists for a while probably has figured out that I'm interested in very speedy guys that might project to get significant MLB playing time. I probably put too many of those guys on my list but I think they are worth a flyer in deep leagues so I put them on. I realize that I'll probably miss on most of them but if you hit on one they can really help your fantasy team. Sometimes, these guys end up being highly regarded prospects (see Mallex Smith). White's SB potential jumps out at you and BA rated him the Rockies' fastest baserunner in 2012. But White also put up a .300/.400/.500 slash line, albeit mainly in favorable hitting environments, and practically nobody that's prospect-age does that. And, unlike many speed-first OFers in the minors, his plate discipline looks good too. And he was drafted #73 overall and signed for $1 mil so he didnt exactly come out of nowhere either. Altho BA didnt rank him in their top 30 after 2014, they did after the 2013 and 2012 seasons so there are a couple scouting rpts on him. The one from 2013 says he is a pure CFer w above average range and arm strength, has good bat speed and that if he gains strength he could hit 15 HRs a yr. After his great yr in 2015, I expect he's somewhere in BA's Rockies top 30 (dont know for sure because I dont buy their Prospect Handbook but eventually they post the rpt on their website). All that said, I have moved him down my list a bit (currently #113).

What about Wes Rogers, another burner in the system? How do they compare?

[rhd]

What about Wes Rogers, another burner in the system? How do they compare?

Thx for your response, Simon.

Rogers is on my radar. Pretty good stats (in a good hitting environment) altho not nearly as good as White's. Plate discipline looks OK, too. BA had him #30 on their list last year so they did a scouting rpt. It says he's a pure CFer w a fringy arm, has bat speed but needs better contact, has speed but needs to use it better. Another rpt says he also he plenty power, altho he hasnt shown it in games yet. He's much farther down my list.

[Sour Masher]

RHD, what are your thoughts on the two high priced international signees for the Dodgers--Yusniel Diaz and Yadier Alvarez? I'm looking for upside picks? Do they fit the bill as worthy gambles?

[rhd]

RHD, what are your thoughts on the two high priced international signees for the Dodgers--Yusniel Diaz and Yadier Alvarez? I'm looking for upside picks? Do they fit the bill as worthy gambles?

Thanx for another response, Sour Masher.

Diaz and Alvarez are not too far the list. I'd kinda like to squeeze Diaz on but there just isnt room. He didnt make BA's top 100 or even their Team Top 10 but they list him as the #28 CFer prospect. BP's scouting report indicates that he has plus speed and below-avg power and they say he might have the highest floor of any of the Dodgers' Cuban signees, which would appear to be at least a 4th OFer. They peg him to stay in CF and he has a plus arm. So good chance of being a MLB regular w ~ 30 SB potential. But he's only 19 so a ways away from the big show. But he would intrigue me in a league w a deep minors roster.

BA hasnt ranked Alvarez anywhere yet, except that he was their #13 Cuban prospect about a year ago (Diaz was #17). BP's report says it's nearly impossible to rank him, altho they did rank him #6 on the Dodgers' list. This they say is because he has lots of upside, as he can hit 98 mph but sits at 92-94, but there is a lot of risk w him. His slider altho flashing plus, is very inconsistent and his delivery is also very inconsistent. Also, he's only 19 and no track record in the US so pretty raw but lots of time to develop. Uncertain whether he can be a SP at this pt but if he can he has TOR potential.

You didnt mention another recent Dodger Cuban signee, Yaisel Sierra. BP says Sierra also can touch 98 and sits at 94-96. Like Alvarez, his secondary pitches are very iffy but he's 24 y/o so more likely that he'll be a reliever. But they he could be a high-leverage reliever, except that it would take an injury for him to be a closer in LA. He seems pretty close to MLB but probably is more of a late reserve round pick at this point.

[rhd]

RHD, what are your thoughts on the two high priced international signees for the Dodgers--Yusniel Diaz and Yadier Alvarez? I'm looking for upside picks? Do they fit the bill as worthy gambles?

Thanx for another response, Sour Masher.

Diaz and Alvarez are not too far the list. I'd kinda like to squeeze Diaz on but there just isnt room. He didnt make BA's top 100 or even their Team Top 10 but they list him as the #28 CFer prospect. BP's scouting report indicates that he has plus speed and below-avg power and they say he might have the highest floor of any of the Dodgers' Cuban signees, which would appear to be at least a 4th OFer. They peg him to stay in CF and he has a plus arm. So good chance of being a MLB regular w ~ 30 SB potential. But he's only 19 so a ways away from the big show. But he would intrigue me in a league w a deep minors roster.

BA hasnt ranked Alvarez anywhere yet, except that he was their #13 Cuban prospect about a year ago (Diaz was #17). BP's report says it's nearly impossible to rank him, altho they did rank him #6 on the Dodgers' list. This they say is because he has lots of upside, as he can hit 98 mph but sits at 92-94, but there is a lot of risk w him. His slider altho flashing plus, is very inconsistent and his delivery is also very inconsistent. Also, he's only 19 and no track record in the US so pretty raw but lots of time to develop. Uncertain whether he can be a SP at this pt but if he can he has TOR potential. If you're into upside, you might take a flyer and stash him in a deep league.

You didnt mention another recent Dodger Cuban signee, Yaisel Sierra. BP says Sierra also can touch 98 and sits at 94-96. Like Alvarez, his secondary pitches are very iffy but he's 24 y/o so more likely that he'll be a reliever. But they he could be a high-leverage reliever, except that it would take an injury for him to be a closer in LA. He seems pretty close to MLB but probably is more of a late reserve round pick at this point.

[james33]

Just checked out 2015 minor league SB leaders, looking at their ages and K rate as well as proxies for "do they have a chance?"

This guy popped: CF Randy (Rodriguez) Ventura, 18 y.o., 231 AB in DSL, just 27 Ks, and 55 SB. 0 HR and just 11 2B; must be complete slap hitter. But that contact rate and speed...yum... Is he in your top 300? Not sure where to go to see whether he signed for any kind of money, another indicator of potential.

[rhd]

Just checked out 2015 minor league SB leaders, looking at their ages and K rate as well as proxies for "do they have a chance?"

This guy popped: CF Randy (Rodriguez) Ventura, 18 y.o., 231 AB in DSL, just 27 Ks, and 55 SB. 0 HR and just 11 2B; must be complete slap hitter. But that contact rate and speed...yum... Is he in your top 300? Not sure where to go to see whether he signed for any kind of money, another indicator of potential.

Thanx for another response, James.

I had not been familiar w Ventura. His stats look very impressive, but they were in the DSL so they have limited meaning. Intriguing enough that I added him to my list. But he's nowhere close to my top 300. BA is reviewing the recent int'l signees but they havent gotten to the Braves yet. He's not in the top 40 signing bonuses from last year, of which #40 was $550,000 so his bonus was at least below that. Thanx for the info!

[rhd]

BA is reviewing the recent int'l signees but they havent gotten to the Braves yet.

They had the Braves' review today and it said Ventura's bonus was only $17,500. It said he has 80 speed.

[Sharky]

rhd, any thoughts on MLB arrival for Ozzie Albies? He slayed in spring training and looks great.