RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA Top 100" Version)

[rhd]

BA will announce its 2016 Top 100 list on Friday, so I want to post mine now before theirs. I decided to put more 2016 draftees on this time, but they're all at the bottom as I dont see anyone I want to rank higher rt now. There are a lot more Cubans than usual on now, including the 2 latest to defect, the Gurriel brothers.

I keep saying I'm going to do writeups for this list but I can never finish them because it takes so long to do. I again intend to do them this year so stay tuned.

Same spiel as usual: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), and actual closers are upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

In addition to posting the list here, I've created a new Google Doc that has the list. Link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bkhcZo0ZRfqwa06mDOmlo9Vo_y4L5YwwYvU0Lzj1Hic/edit#gid=1932529186

An editable copy is here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_f_4xwRhDd6HZlyNyUWYcMUeXnVfo0ydzkrRctzgyD0/edit#gid=1932529186

Let me know if this doesnt work.

Rank Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 Corey Seager SS LAD 0 1
2 Byron Buxton OF Min 0 2
3 Yoan (Johan) Moncada 2B Bos 0 3
4 Julio Urias SP LAD 0 4
5 Lucas Giolito SP Was 0 5
6 J.P. (John Paul) Crawford SS Phi 0 6
7 Tyler Glasnow SP Pit 1 8
8 Joey Gallo 3B Tex 2 10
9 Trea Turner SS Was 10 19
10 Steve Matz SP NYM 24 34
11 Alex Reyes SP StL -2 9
12 Shohei Otani SP Japan 5 17
13 Yulieski Gurriel 3B FA-Cuba NA NR
14 Dansby Swanson SS Atl -3 11
15 Brendan Rodgers SS Col 7 22
16 Bradley Zimmer OF Cle 7 23
17 A.J. Reed 1B Hou -1 16
18 Lewis Brinson OF Tex 33 51
19 Nomar Mazara OF Tex -4 15
20 Jorge Mateo SS NYY 9 29
21 Andrew Benintendi OF Bos 9 30
22 Orlando Arcia SS Mil 4 26
23 Manuel Margot OF SD -3 20
24 Alex Bregman SS Hou -3 21
25 Franklin Barreto SS Oak 3 28
26 Rafael Devers 3B Bos -1 25
27 Blake Snell SP TB 4 31
28 Jose Orlando (J.O.) Berrios SP Min -10 18
29 Anderson Espinoza SP Bos 16 45
30 Jose De Leon SP LAD 2 32
31 Sean Newcomb SP Atl 10 41
32 Jose Peraza OF Cin -18 14
33 Max Kepler 1B Min 35 68
34 Brett Phillips OF Mil -7 27
35 Tim Anderson SS CHW 2 37
36 Clint Frazier OF Cle 2 38
37 Victor Robles OF Was 7 44
38 Anthony Alford OF Tor 5 43
39 Austin Meadows OF Pit 8 47
40 Nick Williams OF Phi 8 48
41 David Dahl OF Col 8 49
42 Brent Honeywell SP TB 12 54
43 Jesse Winker OF Cin -4 39
44 Aaron Judge OF NYY -20 24
45 Ryan McMahon 3B Col 1 46
46 Josh Bell 1B Pit -6 40
47 Robert Stephenson SP Cin 8 55
48 Gleyber Torres SS CHC 5 53
49 Ozhaino Albies SS Atl 3 52
50 Alfredo Despaigne OF Cuba 9 59
51 Hector Olivera OF Atl -38 13
52 Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi SS KC 12 64
53 Trenton Clark OF Mil 76 129
54 Kyle Tucker OF Hou 9 63
55 Archie Bradley SP Ari 1 56
56 Francis Martes SP Hou 19 75
57 Byung-Ho Park 1B Min NA NR
58 Kenta Maeda SP LAD 92 150
59 Michael Fulmer SP Det 15 74
60 Sean Manaea SP Oak 20 80
61 Jorge Lopez SP Mil 79 140
62 Aaron Blair SP Atl 11 73
63 Trevor Story SS Col -13 50
64 Hunter Renfroe OF SD -7 57
65 Nick Gordon SS Min 19 84
66 Ian Happ OF CHC 55 121
67 Dazmon Cameron OF Hou -5 62
68 Ruddy Giron SS SD 63 131
69 Derek Fisher OF Hou -9 60
70 Lourdes Gurriel OF FA-Cuba NA NR
71 Javier Guerra SS SD 35 106
72 Hyun-Soo (Hyeon-Soo) Kim OF Bal NA NR
73 Jonathan Gray SP Col 4 77
74 Raimel Tapia OF Col -38 36
75 Mallex Smith OF Atl 21 96
76 Roman Quinn OF Phi -6 70
77 Willy Adames SS TB 30 107
78 Cody Reed SP Cin NA NR
79 Grant Holmes SP LAD -3 76
80 Luis Ortiz SP Tex 37 117
81 Dillon Tate SP Tex 4 85
82 Carson Fulmer SP CHW 20 102
83 Amir Garrett SP Cin 45 128
84 Cody Bellinger 1B LAD NA NR
85 Albert Almora OF CHC 26 111
86 Matt Olson 1B Oak 24 110
87 Renato Nunez 3B Oak 22 109
88 Bobby Bradley 1B Cle 0 88
89 Alex Jackson OF Sea -31 58
90 Drew Jackson SS Sea NA NR
91 Eric Jenkins OF Tex NA NR
92 Max White OF Col NA NR
93 Jose Miguel Fernandez 2B 16? NA NR
94 Guillermo Heredia OF FA-Cuba 6 100
95 Alex Verdugo OF LAD NA NR
96 Jake (Aaron) Thompson SP Phi -24 72
97 Harold Ramirez OF Pit 47 144
98 Christian Arroyo SS SF NA NR
99 Forrest Wall 2B Col -16 83
100 Cornelius Randolph OF Phi 30 130
101 Kolby Allard SP Atl -9 92
102 Touki Toussaint SP Atl 11 113
103 Amed Rosario SS NYM 33 136
104 Mark Appel SP Phi -26 78
105 Jameson Taillon SP Pit -14 91
106 Kyle Zimmer SP KC 40 146
107 Dylan Bundy SP Bal 12 119
108 Reynaldo Lopez SP Was -13 95
109 Dominic Smith 1B NYM 28 137
110 Billy McKinney OF CHC -68 42
111 Braden Shipley SP Ari -25 86
112 Hunter Harvey SP Bal -25 87
113 Chad Pinder SS Oak NA NR
114 Matt Chapman 3B Oak 8 122
115 Jake Bauers 1B TB NA NR
116 Jomar Reyes 3B Bal 23 139
117 Austin Riley 3B Atl NA NR
118 Alen Hanson 2B Pit -37 81
119 Michael Reed OF Mil NA NR
120 Travis Jankowski OF SD NA NR
121 Darnell Sweeney 2B Phi NA NR
122 Brandon Drury 3B Ari 12 134
123 Gavin Cecchini SS NYM 20 143
124 Jorge Polanco SS Min -19 105
125 Dae-Ho Lee 1B Sea NA NR
126 Miguel Almonte SP KC 0 126
127 Tyler O'Neill OF Sea -19 108
128 Michael Kopech SP Bos NA NR
129 Joe Musgrove SP Hou NA NR
130 David Paulino SP Hou NA NR
131 Eric Fedde SP Was NA NR
132 Gary Sanchez C NYY NA NR
133 Brady Aiken SP Cle NA NR
134 Justus Sheffield SP Cle -9 125
135 Domingo Acevedo SP NYY NA NR
136 Francellis Montas SP LAD -43 93
137 Michael Feliz SP Hou -43 94
138 Sean Reid-Foley SP Tor NA NR
139 Taylor Guerrieri SP TB -16 123
140 James Kaprielian SP NYY NA NR
141 Lucius Fox SS SF NA NR
142 A.J. Puk SP College NA NR
143 Alec Hansen SP College NA NR
144 Jason Groome SP HS NA NR
145 Corey Ray OF College NA NR
146 Buddy Reed OF College NA NR
147 Delvin Perez SS HS NA NR
148 Jorge Ona OF FA-Cuba 1 149
149 Randy Arozarena OF FA-Cuba -1 148
150 Jeff Hoffman SP Col -3 147

Players removed because of exceeding of eligibility requirements (9):
L Severino (#7), M Conforto (#12), A Vizcaino (#33), D Pompey (#35), Dom Santana (#61), H Owens (#66), G Bird (#69), B Finnegan (#90), A Altherr (#133)

Eligibles that dropped off (26):
D Robertson (#65), R Shaffer (#67), M Johnson (#71), W Difo (#79), B Nimmo (#82), M Gonzales (#89), R Kaminsky (#97), J Flaherty (#98), B Johnson (#99), T Beede (#101), T Jay (#103), R Liriano (#104), A Cole (#112), E Diaz (#114), D Underwood (#115), S Adams (#116), K Stewart (#118), Y Alvarez (#120), S Gonsalves (#124), K Mella (#127), T Kolek (#132), J Nottingham (#135), R Urena (#138), Z Davies (#141), J Hader (#142), A Ibanez (#145)

New additions (35):
Y Gurriel, B Park, L Gurriel, H Kim, C Reed, C Bellinger, D Jackson, E Jenkins, M White, J Fernandez, A Verdugo, C Arroyo, C Pinder, J Bauers, A Riley, M Reed, T Jankowski, D Sweeney, D Lee, M Kopech, J Musgrove, D Paulino, E Fedde, G Sanchez, B Aiken, D Acevedo, S Reid-Foley, J Kaprelian, L Fox, A Puk, A Hansen, J Groome, B Reed, C Ray, D Perez

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[whalewang]

Thanks for posting! It's ALWAYS appreciated.

Your google doc link displays "You need permission".

[TranaGreg]

great stuff as always; just a bit of QA, I'm pretty sure that Derek Fisher (#69) is still with Houston and hasn't emigrated to Cuba. Tho that would be an interesting twist.

[rhd]

great stuff as always; just a bit of QA, I'm pretty sure that Derek Fisher (#69) is still with Houston and hasn't emigrated to Cuba. Tho that would be an interesting twist.

Ooh, how did that happen? Fixed now. Thanx for the heads up!

[rhd]

Thanks for posting! It's ALWAYS appreciated.

Your google doc link displays "You need permission".

Sorry, forgot to share it. Should be OK now. Nice to know people are interested in the Google doc. Thanx!

[Sour Masher]

As always, RHD, it is like an early Valentine's day gift when you post this .

A couple of things pop out at me right away:

1. Wow, I did not realize Yulieski Gurriel had this kind of upside/talent--this is a wake up call for me in terms of his value. I guess I've generally been dismissive of guys who come into the league after the age of 30 (I pretty much ignored Olivera as a prospect as well; he, interestingly ,is down to 51 from 13, where you have Gurriel now), and at first glance, he seems below guys like Abreu and Puig, and is now on the wrong side of his peak. But I guess the flip side to that is he should be ready as soon as this year to contribute at a high level, but then again, that is what they said about Olivera, and I still don't know what to make of him.

2. It is interesting that you have Swanson a slot ahead of Rodgers. You have them ranked right next to each other, and both are really high, so obviously you like them both, but despite their nearly identifical rankings/values, I am interested on your take on those two. Is Swanson a tad ahead, because ultimately you sided with higher floor and closer to the majors, or do you also think that some might be under-selling his ceiling? I know you give value to closeness to the majors, but often in close calls like this, it seems like you side with the higher ceiling guy, and I know you, like me, love you some Coors hitters, so i'm curious if you see Swanson's ceiling as higher than some sources suggest, or maybe see Rodgers as riskier. And again, I realize I'm asking you to split hairs on two guys you essential rank the same. But I will be trying to acquire one of these guys, and I want to know which one to pursue.

[wannabegriffey]

As always, RHD, it is like an early Valentine's day gift when you post this .

A couple of things pop out at me right away:

1. Wow, I did not realize Yulieski Gurriel had this kind of upside/talent--this is a wake up call for me in terms of his value. I guess I've generally been dismissive of guys who come into the league after the age of 30 (I pretty much ignored Olivera as a prospect as well; he, interestingly ,is down to 51 from 13, where you have Gurriel now), and at first glance, he seems below guys like Abreu and Puig, and is now on the wrong side of his peak. But I guess the flip side to that is he should be ready as soon as this year to contribute at a high level, but then again, that is what they said about Olivera, and I still don't know what to make of him.

Regarding Yulieski, um, WOW in 2015!! That is, if B-R is showing his correct stats. Granted, it was just 127 at bats but .488 batting average and just one (1) strikeout !! Okay, obviously it was short sample and the guy is already turning 32 halfway through 2016 but he should certainly be helpful to any roto team.

[rhd]

As always, RHD, it is like an early Valentine's day gift when you post this .

A couple of things pop out at me right away:

1. Wow, I did not realize Yulieski Gurriel had this kind of upside/talent--this is a wake up call for me in terms of his value. I guess I've generally been dismissive of guys who come into the league after the age of 30 (I pretty much ignored Olivera as a prospect as well; he, interestingly ,is down to 51 from 13, where you have Gurriel now), and at first glance, he seems below guys like Abreu and Puig, and is now on the wrong side of his peak. But I guess the flip side to that is he should be ready as soon as this year to contribute at a high level, but then again, that is what they said about Olivera, and I still don't know what to make of him.

2. It is interesting that you have Swanson a slot ahead of Rodgers. You have them ranked right next to each other, and both are really high, so obviously you like them both, but despite their nearly identifical rankings/values, I am interested on your take on those two. Is Swanson a tad ahead, because ultimately you sided with higher floor and closer to the majors, or do you also think that some might be under-selling his ceiling? I know you give value to closeness to the majors, but often in close calls like this, it seems like you side with the higher ceiling guy, and I know you, like me, love you some Coors hitters, so i'm curious if you see Swanson's ceiling as higher than some sources suggest, or maybe see Rodgers as riskier. And again, I realize I'm asking you to split hairs on two guys you essential rank the same. But I will be trying to acquire one of these guys, and I want to know which one to pursue.

Thanx as always for your response, SourMasher.

Yeah, I decided to rank Gurriel aggressively. Very uncertain where he belongs since he hasnt played here yet and I havent seen anyone indicate where they would rank him if he was eligible. I guess he's the "shiny new toy" now but a lot of people will be interested in nabbing him so you if want him you probably will have to take him early. Scouts have had lots of chances to see him over the years in int'l competition and he's been considered the top guy in Cuba for several years, even when Cespedes, Puig and Abreu were still there. So I dont think my ranking is too far-fetched. BA probably will indicate soon where they would rank him if eligible. They've already said he's a slam dunk for top 50.

Swanson is a slot above Rodgers because he's closer to the bigs. In fact, I've read where he might get a shot later this year. But I've read that Rodgers is supposed to have a little more upside. BTW, Swanson is w Atlanta now so no Coors boost. I would take Swanson in a draft but if upside is very important then you might prefer Rodgers. It's hard to go wrong w either one.

[rhd]

Regarding Yulieski, um, WOW in 2015!! That is, if B-R is showing his correct stats. Granted, it was just 127 at bats but .488 batting average and just one (1) strikeout !! Okay, obviously it was short sample and the guy is already turning 32 halfway through 2016 but he should certainly be helpful to any roto team.

Thanx for the response, WBG.

See my comment above re: Gurriel. Unusual that a guy debuts on my list so high. But noone expected the elder Gurriel to jump to the US Otherwise he would have already been on somewhere around where I have Despaigne ranked. BTW the reason Despaigne jumped up a bit is because I think the Gurriels' jumping makes it even more likely that he will jump soon too. The exodus of premium Cuban talent over the last 5 years, especially the last 18 months, has been astounding.

[Sour Masher]

Thanx as always for your response, SourMasher.

Swanson is a slot above Rodgers because he's closer to the bigs. In fact, I've read where he might get a shot later this year. But I've read that Rodgers is supposed to have a little more upside. BTW, Swanson is w Atlanta now so no Coors boost. I would take Swanson in a draft but if upside is very important then you might prefer Rodgers. It's hard to go wrong w either one.

My syntax was confusing. I meant that since Rodgers is in the Rockies org, I thought he might get the nod over Swanson. But the Swanson trade shows it probably isn't wise to put too much stock in future park factors, because any prospect can end up elsewhere.

[rhd]

My syntax was confusing. I meant that since Rodgers is in the Rockies org, I thought he might get the nod over Swanson. But the Swanson trade shows it probably isn't wise to put too much stock in future park factors, because any prospect can end up elsewhere.

My bad. Rodgers is the one in the Rockies system. No, Swanson still gets my nod for being closer to the bigs and also for being more developed.

[Teenwolf]

I think I'm too paranoid to ask about players off the list, as it'll spoil them as sleepers for me... so I'll try and play it safe with my questions.

Needless to say, a few things I've noticed... Oakland has a glut of infielders (Y. Munoz, R. Martin, M. Chapman, R. Nunez) and they're seemingly all behind Barreto. How does it shake out? I have strong doubts about Nunez, given his year-to-year L/R splits, where he crushes LHP and struggles vs. RHP... Chapman gets a lot of love, but you'd prefer to see some SB's in the profile to limit risk... does that put Munoz on top? Most think Martin has the best chance to stick at SS, with possibly more bat than Munoz, but less SB... so it's a tough pile to sift through.

Also, the Clevelands have a lot of SP depth that's tough to slice and dice. You've got Aiken and Sheffield at 133/134, but they've also got Clevinger, McKenzie, and Kaminsky slightly behind those 2. I've seen all 5 of these guys listed as the top arm among them, though Clevinger is usually lowest. How to dice them?

[james33]

Thanks, rhd, I love it when your lists come out!

1) Why'd Nimmo drop off the list? Foot injury or something else?

2) I don't get the J.P. Crawford love. Not a critique of your list; I see him as super-hi on everyone's lists. .761 OPS and 7 SB in 86 games in AA last year. There's certainly a lot of plusses...young...SS...not blocked...not saying he's bad at all, I'm just having trouble seeing the upside I'd like to see with a top-20 prospect. Comparing him to Orlando Arcia, for example, who hit more 2B and steals more bases.

[Moonlight J]

What did mid 60's guys like Robertson & Shaffer do in 2015 to fall 90+ spots & off the list?

[Sharky]

What did mid 60's guys like Robertson & Shaffer do in 2015 to fall 90+ spots & off the list?

I'm going to guess it's a combo of injury and lack of significant progress for Robertson (plus unclear path to playing time).