RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA Top 100" Version)

[Dans]

I have found an interesting one:

Jeff Hoffman.

You have him at 150.

Baseball prospectus seems to have vaulted him up the rankings and they have him at 24!

[mjl]

That's some aggressive ranking by BP. Law has him at 90. I suspect some of the discrepancy is that even if he develops well, he's still getting the "pitcher in Colorado" penalty, so for fantasy he's less exciting.

[rhd]

Yep, it's the "Rockies' SP" penalty. There's never been a Rockies' SP that has done really well for very long. Ubaldo Jimenez had a spectacular half season there and Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis each had a string of 4 years where they pitched like solid back-of-rotation starters. Jorge De La Rosa actually seems to have had the most sustained success but even he's not been much better than a solid #4. Eventually, someone will be successful there and Hoffman (or Gray) might be the one but until someone proves this I'm staying away from Rockies starters. I'll draft a Rockies closer tho.

[Dans]

Probably a topic for another thread, but are there any stats to show a) who currently active has the best stats at Coors Field and b) whether ground ball pitchers are in the main more successful that non ground ball pitchers?

[rhd]

Probably a topic for another thread, but are there any stats to show a) who currently active has the best stats at Coors Field and b) whether ground ball pitchers are in the main more successful that non ground ball pitchers?

I did a quick lookup of the cumulative bWar for the 4 pitchers I listed. Ubaldo actually was successful for a longer period than I thought. In what amounts to 5 full seasons in Colo, he had a WAR of 18.6, which is about 3.7 per year which is way above avg, almost AS caliber. Most of this was in 2 seasons: 5.6 in 2009 and 7.5 in 2010 (only 5.8 fWar, tho). De La Rosa has a figure of 13.8 in the equivalent of about 6 full seasons, so about 2.3 WAR per year which is roughly about a #4+ starter. Cook had 15.8 WAR in roughly 6 full seasons as a SP, about 2.6 per year, about a #3/4 starter, so a little better than even I thought. Francis had 10.2 in the equivalent of about 5.5 full seasons, so about 1.9 WAR per year, about a #4 SP. There may be some others deserving consideration but it looks like Ubaldo is the clear frontrunner.

I dont think GB pitchers are the pitchers that are more successful at Coors. One of the big reasons Coors is so bad for pitchers is that breaking balls break less there and thus are much more hitable. Everything I've heard is that the most successful pitchers at Coors are those w good 4-seamers because generally this is the highest velocity pitch and the least affected by the thin air. Velocity and movement are the 2 things (among other factors) that make pitches hard to hit and Coors takes away some of the movement so velocity would appear to be the key. Avg MLB FB velo is about 92 mph. During Ubaldo's Coors heyday, his 4-seamer avg'd about 96 mph. For De La Rosa, he avg'd about 93 mph for his 1st 4+ years, then it dropped some during the 2-3 years he was injured then has come back the last 2 years to about 92. There is no PitchFX data before 2007 so no data for Cook's early years but his best years were 2006-08 and for 2007-08 his avg FB velo was 91.7. For Francis, same problem but his best years were 2006-07 and for 2007 his velo was 88.4. So the most effective Coors SPs appear to have been the harder throwers altho Cook and Francis show that you can be moderately effective at slower speeds. In Jon Gray's brief time as a Rockie his 4-seamer avg'd 94.3 and his 2-seamer actually was faster at 95.5, so this at least looks promising for him.

[Dans]

Great stuff rhd - thanks.

[onejayhawk]

First, thanks for doing this. Second, thanks for doing the spreadsheet.

What does the "FA-Cuba" connote? Does it mean not under contract to any team? Does that also apply to "Japan"?

J

[mjl]

onejay: yes.

[rhd]

First, thanks for doing this. Second, thanks for doing the spreadsheet.

What does the "FA-Cuba" connote? Does it mean not under contract to any team? Does that also apply to "Japan"?

J

FA-Cuba designates those players that have left Cuba but havent signed w a MLB team yet. They're not necessarily officially FAs yet but soon will be. I would also designate a Japanese player FA-Japan if he was posted or declared his intention to jump to MLB but hadnt signed yet. Currently, noone on the list fits that description. Maeda signed and Otani is still in Japan. Also, Despaigne is still in Cuba so he's designated just as "Cuba".

[Sour Masher]

Rhd, I'm looking through your list for folks who are not on other people's radar and I noticed Max White. Has your ranking of him changed now that you've seen him not on BAs top 10? He isn't currently on Sickels top 36 to consider either. But that may just me he is a legit sleeper that you've uncovered. He had a nice stat line in A ball last year, but hadn't shown much prior to that and is already 21. What are your updated thoughts on him? Do you see him as a late bloomer?

[rhd]

Rhd, I'm looking through your list for folks who are not on other people's radar and I noticed Max White. Has your ranking of him changed now that you've seen him not on BAs top 10? He isn't currently on Sickels top 36 to consider either. But that may just me he is a legit sleeper that you've uncovered. He had a nice stat line in A ball last year, but hadn't shown much prior to that and is already 21. What are your updated thoughts on him? Do you see him as a late bloomer?

Thanx as always for the response, Sour Masher.

Yeah, White is not on anyone's list at all. But anyone who's followed my lists for a while probably has figured out that I'm interested in very speedy guys that might project to get significant MLB playing time. I probably put too many of those guys on my list but I think they are worth a flyer in deep leagues so I put them on. I realize that I'll probably miss on most of them but if you hit on one they can really help your fantasy team. Sometimes, these guys end up being highly regarded prospects (see Mallex Smith). White's SB potential jumps out at you and BA rated him the Rockies' fastest baserunner in 2012. But White also put up a .300/.400/.500 slash line, albeit mainly in favorable hitting environments, and practically nobody that's prospect-age does that. And, unlike many speed-first OFers in the minors, his plate discipline looks good too. And he was drafted #73 overall and signed for $1 mil so he didnt exactly come out of nowhere either. Altho BA didnt rank him in their top 30 after 2014, they did after the 2013 and 2012 seasons so there are a couple scouting rpts on him. The one from 2013 says he is a pure CFer w above average range and arm strength, has good bat speed and that if he gains strength he could hit 15 HRs a yr. After his great yr in 2015, I expect he's somewhere in BA's Rockies top 30 (dont know for sure because I dont buy their Prospect Handbook but eventually they post the rpt on their website). All that said, I have moved him down my list a bit (currently #113).

[Sour Masher]

Thanx as always for the response, Sour Masher.

Yeah, White is not on anyone's list at all. But anyone who's followed my lists for a while probably has figured out that I'm interested in very speedy guys that might project to get significant MLB playing time. I probably put too many of those guys on my list but I think they are worth a flyer in deep leagues so I put them on. I realize that I'll probably miss on most of them but if you hit on one they can really help your fantasy team. Sometimes, these guys end up being highly regarded prospects (see Mallex Smith). White's SB potential jumps out at you and BA rated him the Rockies' fastest baserunner in 2012. But White also put up a .300/.400/.500 slash line, albeit mainly in favorable hitting environments, and practically nobody that's prospect-age does that. And, unlike many speed-first OFers in the minors, his plate discipline looks good too. And he was drafted #73 overall and signed for $1 mil so he didnt exactly come out of nowhere either. Altho BA didnt rank him in their top 30 after 2014, they did after the 2013 and 2012 seasons so there are a couple scouting rpts on him. The one from 2013 says he is a pure CFer w above average range and arm strength, has good bat speed and that if he gains strength he could hit 15 HRs a yr. After his great yr in 2015, I expect he's somewhere in BA's Rockies top 30 (dont know for sure because I dont buy their Prospect Handbook but eventually they post the rpt on their website). All that said, I have moved him down my list a bit (currently #113).

Thanks RHD. Everything you say makes sense to me, and I'm left perplexed by why he is so far under the radar for others. I'd assumed it must be related to his defense, but if he is good enough to be a CFer, he should warrant a little more love than he gets elsewhere. He wasn't on my radar before, so I'm glad for your ranking so I am at least aware of him now.

[overkill94]

I'm guessing the fact that this was his third year in Low-A denigrates his gaudy stat line quite a bit - plus he was only successful on 70% of his stolen base attempts. Add to that the presence of quality outfielders in the Rockies system (Dahl, Tapia, and Patterson) and it seems like White is more trade bait than future regular for the Rockies.

FYI - this is what Sickels said in the chat when someone asked about him:

He was one of the last cuts. I see him as a Grade C with some potential but given the track record and the need to prove himself outside of Asheville, he didn't make the cut
by John Sickels on Mar 8, 2016 | 8:00 PM up reply rec flag

[overkill94]

On a more selfish note, my 12-team (possibly 11) NL-only 5x5 keeper league (OBP) allows us one free keeper and I have the following options:

DeLeon - $5
Tapia - $3
Drury - $3
Nimmo - $1

DeLeon is highest on most lists, but this league favors young hitters waaaaay more than young pitchers so conceivably it would be easier to draft DeLeon during the regular auction than one of these other hitters at these prices. Tapia seems to have the most upside but is fairly far from the majors and has some warts in his game. Drury is one step away from the majors but unless Lamb gets injured or flops, there are a glut of mediocre 2B options already in Arizona that could be in his way. Nimmo has lost a lot of his prospect shine but this being an OBP league he could provide some nice value at $1. Thanks in advance!

[Sour Masher]

I'm guessing the fact that this was his third year in Low-A denigrates his gaudy stat line quite a bit - plus he was only successful on 70% of his stolen base attempts. Add to that the presence of quality outfielders in the Rockies system (Dahl, Tapia, and Patterson) and it seems like White is more trade bait than future regular for the Rockies.

FYI - this is what Sickels said in the chat when someone asked about him:

He was one of the last cuts. I see him as a Grade C with some potential but given the track record and the need to prove himself outside of Asheville, he didn't make the cut
by John Sickels on Mar 8, 2016 | 8:00 PM up reply rec flag

Yeah, that was me asking about him over there .