RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects ("Pre-BA Top 100" Version)

[rhd]

What did mid 60's guys like Robertson & Shaffer do in 2015 to fall 90+ spots & off the list?

Thanx for the response, Jason.

I was surprised that Robertson and Shaffer havent gotten more love from the prospect mavens. BA rated Robertson the 's #1 prospect after 2014 but barely made their Rays' list this year at #10 and didnt make a League Top 20 at all. Last year, they said he had 20-HR potential but this year they said if things work out he could hit 10-15 HR. He only hit 4 this yr. They also said he's a below-average runner, so he doesnt project to help a roto team too much in the power and speed categories. He's always been young for his leagues while holding his own and has made the back-end of a few top 100 lists this year. But in the end he got squeezed off of my list by others that I thought deserved more to be on. I probably had him too high before.

I thought Shaffer was set to get significant playing time in Tampa after he was brought up last year. After all, the Rays really need more power and they're not getting it from their current 1Bman. Shaffer showed good power in college and also hit 26 HRs in the minors last year. Yet he doesnt seem to be in the Rays' immediate plans. And the prospect guys dont seem to like him much at all as he didnt make BA's team list or league list this year, and I've seen him on only 1 top 100 list. The only recent scouting report I've seen is BP's and they tab him a fringe-average regular at corner w below-average bat speed. Even tho they say he'll likely end up at 1B, RotoWorld lists him only at 3B behind Longoria so it may take an injury to him for Shaffer to get playing time. So I apparently miscalculated the MLB opportunity for Shaffer in ranking so high before.

That said, neither guy is very far off the list.

[rhd]

Thanks, rhd, I love it when your lists come out!

1) Why'd Nimmo drop off the list? Foot injury or something else?

2) I don't get the J.P. Crawford love. Not a critique of your list; I see him as super-hi on everyone's lists. .761 OPS and 7 SB in 86 games in AA last year. There's certainly a lot of plusses...young...SS...not blocked...not saying he's bad at all, I'm just having trouble seeing the upside I'd like to see with a top-20 prospect. Comparing him to Orlando Arcia, for example, who hit more 2B and steals more bases.

Thanx as always for the response, James.

Nimmo's always been a guy that I've deferred to the scouts on, as his production as a pro has never been anything special, except for OBP. The scouts still seem to like him and BA's report indicates he shows line-drive power and is average defensively in CF and has average speed. But BA left him their top 100 list this year after he came in at #45 last year. Roto-wise, Nimmo doesnt seem to offer much altho he'd be more valuable in OBP leagues. With the Mets' OF situation last year, I thought he'd get a shot at playing time but he was never brought up and wouldnt seem to be in their immediate plans as he's behind 3 guys in CF on the RW depth chart. He has made a couple other top 100 lists so far and he's not far off of my list. His injury didnt factor into my decision.

Crawford looks like a sure bet to get regular playing time in the very near future. And I havent seen him ranked below #6 on any of the more reputable lists so far. His BA rpt says he has an excellent hit tool, could develop average MLB power and, altho he has only average speed, has good baserunning instincts. I've seen him play 2-3 times and he looked really good. Not that I know how to scout players but it helps your confidence when your own eyes help confirm what you've already read about a player. For roto, I would expect him to be above-avg in BA and runs and around average in the other categories. You can quibble w him being quite as high as I have him but that's a pretty valuable player. And I would expect him to be starting in Philly by summer.

[rhd]

I think I'm too paranoid to ask about players off the list, as it'll spoil them as sleepers for me... so I'll try and play it safe with my questions.

Needless to say, a few things I've noticed... Oakland has a glut of infielders (Y. Munoz, R. Martin, M. Chapman, R. Nunez) and they're seemingly all behind Barreto. How does it shake out? I have strong doubts about Nunez, given his year-to-year L/R splits, where he crushes LHP and struggles vs. RHP... Chapman gets a lot of love, but you'd prefer to see some SB's in the profile to limit risk... does that put Munoz on top? Most think Martin has the best chance to stick at SS, with possibly more bat than Munoz, but less SB... so it's a tough pile to sift through.

Also, the Clevelands have a lot of SP depth that's tough to slice and dice. You've got Aiken and Sheffield at 133/134, but they've also got Clevinger, McKenzie, and Kaminsky slightly behind those 2. I've seen all 5 of these guys listed as the top arm among them, though Clevinger is usually lowest. How to dice them?

Thanx for the response, Teenwolf. Sorry for the tardy response.

Well, BA's rpt says the A's are optimistic about him sticking at SS, so he looks like the man until he proves otherwise. It says he has good range and instincts and that his solid but unspectacular arm is the biggest question It also says he has the highest ceiling among all the A's SSs. Personally, I have no idea - I can only go by what the scouts say. Re: 3B, again I defer to BA's rpts and the scouts. BA says the way is clear for Chapman to take over 3B in Oakland in 2017 and that Nunez' future may be at 1B where he'll have to compete w Matt Olson. On my list, I have them ordered Barreto, Nunez, Chapman, Martin, Munoz. BTW, BA indicates Munoz' speed is only slightly above-avg.

Re: the Indians' SPs, there appears to be an amount of risk w each. Aiken is the only consensus top 100 guy but his health status is uncertain. Kaminsky and Sheffield each have performed well but are undersized. McKenzie is highly regarded but is very thin and is only 18 and has barely pitched. Clevinger was old for AA and has battled control issues. Sheffield is on my list because of the K potential and because he made BA's list. The other 3 are in my 200-300 range.

[rhd]

Thanx as always for your response, SourMasher.

Yeah, I decided to rank Gurriel aggressively. Very uncertain where he belongs since he hasnt played here yet and I havent seen anyone indicate where they would rank him if he was eligible. I guess he's the "shiny new toy" now but a lot of people will be interested in nabbing him so you if want him you probably will have to take him early. Scouts have had lots of chances to see him over the years in int'l competition and he's been considered the top guy in Cuba for several years, even when Cespedes, Puig and Abreu were still there. So I dont think my ranking is too far-fetched. BA probably will indicate soon where they would rank him if eligible. They've already said he's a slam dunk for top 50.

Swanson is a slot above Rodgers because he's closer to the bigs. In fact, I've read where he might get a shot later this year. But I've read that Rodgers is supposed to have a little more upside. BTW, Swanson is w Atlanta now so no Coors boost. I would take Swanson in a draft but if upside is very important then you might prefer Rodgers. It's hard to go wrong w either one.

FYI, on today's BA chat, JJ Cooper said Yulieski probably would rank about #30 on their list and Lourdes would be around #90-100.

[deaccat]

Hi RHD and everyone! Thanks so much for the list and the discussion.

It's time for my a annual question. I'm looking for deep high ceiling guys! I don't care at all about how close they are to being in the majors or if the likely hood is minimal if they are foreign players. Just the guys that have the best chance to have the best careers no matter when their career starts and with the assumption they will play in the states even if there is no indication at this point they intend to do so. I wish I had known about Moncada, and Gurriel years ago the same way I knew about Tanaka, and Abreu and drafted them years before they came over and anyone knew who they were.

I have had a guy like Despaigne for years and am very happy I do bc I suspect if he ever did come to the U.S. He would be rated much higher. Are there any young high school guys out there that could be the next Harper or Trout one day? Last year I drafted a Japanese high school pitcher. My league is deep and the guys are getting smarter each year. I need to dig deeper and deeper to stay ahead of them.

[onejayhawk]

What's the story on Story? He was 20/20 in MiLB and he has the ballpark going for him. I would have expected his PT chances to increase with Reyes' much-publicized problems. Even if he has to wait for an injury, Reyes has an injury history, plus 2B and 3B. Instead, several players have passed him.

J

[rhd]

Hi RHD and everyone! Thanks so much for the lust and the discussion.

It's time for my a annual question. I'm looking for deep high ceiling guys! I don't care at all about how close they are to being in the majors or if the likely hood is minimal if they are foreign players. Just the guys that have the best chance to have the best careers no matter when their career starts and with the assumption they will play in the states even if there is no indication at this point they intend to do so. I wish I had known about Moncada and Gurriel years ago the same way I knew about Tanaka, and Abreu and drafted them years before they came over and anyone knew who they were.

I have had a guy like Despaigne for years and am very happy I do bc I suspect if he ever did come to the U.S. He would be rated much higher. Are there any young high school guys out there that could be the next Harper or Trout one day? Last year I drafted a Japanese high school pitcher. My league is deep and the guys are getting smarter each year. I need to dig deeper and deeper to stay ahead of them.

Thanx for another response, Deaccat.

I forget what I said i my answer to this question the last time, so this will be more or less a fresh answer.

The foreign guys who have recent come or that I think are likely to come to MLB are the ones already on the posted list. There are a lot of Cubans now and there are several more just off the list. Guys like Yasiel Sierra, Yusniel Diaz, Yadier Alvarez are already signed (all with the Dodgers) but I dont expect they will contribute at the MLB level rt away. The latter 2 are just 19 so they'll go to the minors. I heard at one pt that Sierra might crack the rotation, but it looks more likely that he'll start in the minors. None of them made BA's Dodgers Top 10, but Sierra and Diaz were ranked in the top 20 players still in Cuba last year by BA. Alvarez was already out of Cuba at the time of BA's list but Kiley McDaniel was very high on him when he defected. I previously had Andy Ibanez (Tex) on the list but he was ranked only the #8 Rangers prospect by BA and there were other players that I preferred to be on the list this time than him. I would say they all have a chance to have at least a moderate impact in MLB but there is too much uncertainty for me to put them on the list at this time. There also are Juan Pablo Martinez, Norge Ruiz, Vladimir Gutierrez, Luis Yander La O and Yadiel Hernandez, who havent signed yet. The first 4 were in BA's Cuban Top 10, so they may have a little more upside. And there's Lazaro Armenteros. I dont know much about him other that he is a highly regarded young talent. He's only 16 and hasnt signed yet. He might be the type of player you're looking for. There are 6 expatriate Cubans on the list (the Gurriels, Fernandez, Heredia, Ona and Arozarena) who I felt had enough upside to merit being on the list. None have signed yet. And there's Alfredo Despaigne who's still in Cuba. He was rated the #2 player in Cuba behind Yulieski Gurriel and now that the Gurriels have defected I would expect him to do the same in the near future. I would be most interested in him and the Gurriels as I think that they all are potentially impact players.

Re: Japanese players, Otani is the one I'd try to get now. I already have him in one of my leagues. His contract supposedly provides that he can ask to be posted at any time and I think that he'll do this by the offseason after 2017 as his value may be near its peak around then. You may have heard that he is/was training in Arizona this year and one cant help but think that this is related to his aspirations to play here. Of course you already know about Maeda, who I expect will be at least a solid #4, maybe more, if he's healthy. If you're looking to beat your league-mates to the punch, you might take a flyer on Yuki Yanagita or Tetsuto Yamada. They each put up astounding power and speed stats in Japan last year. But each are a long way from free agency and probably are many years away from coming to MLB. There's also Shintaro Fujinami, who's maybe only a step down from Otani in terms of talent. He also is a long way from free agency but these 3 might be the types of players you're looking for. Also, there's Tomohiro Anraku, a pitcher, who like Otani and Fujinami, considered jumping to MLB out of Japanese HS. He's barely pitched in Japan so far so I dont know what to make of him but he may be your type of player also.

Re: amateurs, the 6 I listed are the ones I would be most interested in. Keep an eye on Delvin Perez as he could really zoom up the rankings after the season starts. There 2 more amateurs just off the list, Blake Rutherford and Riley Pint. All these guys are eligible to be drafted this year. There are plenty more 2016 draftees farther down. If you're looking to get a jump on next year's draftees, look at JJ Schwarz, Alex Lange and Tanner Houck.

In this year's international signees-to-be, the guy to target rt now is Kevin Maitan (rumored to be signing w Atlanta when eligible). He really sounds like your type of player. Too much uncertainty tho for me to add to the list now. Re: last year's signees, Lucius Fox is already on the and I considered putting Vladimir Guerrero Jr on the list also. I would target those 2 if nobody has them yet.

A lot of words and players. Hope it helps. Good luck!

[rhd]

What's the story on Story? He was 20/20 in MiLB and he has the ballpark going for him. I would have expected his PT chances to increase with Reyes' much-publicized problems. Even if he has to wait for an injury, Reyes has an injury history, plus 2B and 3B. Instead, several players have passed him.

J

Thanx for another reponse, J.

Story is getting very little love from prospect mavens now. I havent seen him in a "nonroto" top 100 yet and even in the fantasy top 100's he's usually towards the back end. I have him higher than practically anyone. This is because I dont expect much from Jose Reyes this year and Story may get the first chance at SS. But if Reyes is healthy he could be hard to get rid of and even so they may let Cristian Adames be the first to replace Reyes. So Story may have to wait. Proceed w caution. If he does get a chance, his power/speed combo is intriguing.

[deaccat]

Thanx for another response, Deaccat.

I forget what I said i my answer to this question the last time, so this will be more or less a fresh answer.

The foreign guys who have recent come or that I think are likely to come to MLB are the ones already on the posted list. There are a lot of Cubans now and there are several more just off the list. Guys like Yasiel Sierra, Yusniel Diaz, Yadier Alvarez are already signed (all with the Dodgers) but I dont expect they will contribute at the MLB level rt away. The latter 2 are just 19 so they'll go to the minors. I heard at one pt that Sierra might crack the rotation, but it looks more likely that he'll start in the minors. None of them made BA's Dodgers Top 10, but Sierra and Diaz were ranked in the top 20 players still in Cuba last year by BA. Alvarez was already out of Cuba at the time of BA's list but Kiley McDaniel was very high on him when he defected. I previously had Andy Ibanez (Tex) on the list but he was ranked only the #8 Rangers prospect by BA and there were other players that I preferred to be on the list this time than him. I would say they all have a chance to have at least a moderate impact in MLB but there is too much uncertainty for me to put them on the list at this time. There also are Juan Pablo Martinez, Norge Ruiz, Vladimir Gutierrez, Luis Yander La O and Yadiel Hernandez, who havent signed yet. The first 4 were in BA's Cuban Top 10, so they may have a little more upside. And there's Lazaro Armenteros. I dont know much about him other that he is a highly regarded young talent. He's only 16 and hasnt signed yet. He might be the type of player you're looking for. There are 6 expatriate Cubans on the list (the Gurriels, Fernandez, Heredia, Ona and Arozarena) who I felt had enough upside to merit being on the list. None have signed yet. And there's Alfredo Despaigne who's still in Cuba. He was rated the #2 player in Cuba behind Yulieski Gurriel and now that the Gurriels have defected I would expect him to do the same in the near future. I would be most interested in him and the Gurriels as I think that they all are potentially impact players.

Re: Japanese players, Otani is the one I'd try to get now. I already have him in one of my leagues. His contract supposedly provides that he can ask to be posted at any time and I think that he'll do this by the offseason after 2017 as his value may be near its peak around then. You may have heard that he is/was training in Arizona this year and one cant help but think that this is related to his aspirations to play here. Of course you already know about Maeda, who I expect will be at least a solid #4, maybe more, if he's healthy. If you're looking to beat your league-mates to the punch, you might take a flyer on Yuki Yanagita or Tetsuto Yamada. They each put up astounding power and speed stats in Japan last year. But each are a long way from free agency and probably are many years away from coming to MLB. There's also Shintaro Fujinami, who's maybe only a step down from Otani in terms of talent. He also is a long way from free agency but these 3 might be the types of players you're looking for. Also, there's Tomohiro Anraku, a pitcher, who like Otani and Fujinami, considered jumping to MLB out of Japanese HS. He's barely pitched in Japan so far so I dont know what to make of him but he may be your type of player also.

Re: amateurs, the 6 I listed are the ones I would be most interested in. Keep an eye on Delvin Perez as he could really zoom up the rankings after the season starts. There 2 more amateurs just off the list, Blake Rutherford and Riley Pint. All these guys are eligible to be drafted this year. There are plenty more 2016 draftees farther down. If you're looking to get a jump on next year's draftees, look at JJ Schwarz, Alex Lange and Tanner Houck.

In this year's international signees-to-be, the guy to target rt now is Kevin Maitan (rumored to be signing w Atlanta when eligible). He really sounds like your type of player. Too much uncertainty tho for me to add to the list now. Re: last year's signees, Lucius Fox is already on the and I considered putting Vladimir Guerrero Jr on the list also. I would target those 2 if nobody has them yet.

A lot of words and players. Hope it helps. God luck!

Thanks RHD! Great stuff. Exactly the type of information I am looking for.

This may be too much to ask but coukd you rank the players you listed based purely on ceiling and potential? I already have Otani, Anraku, Maeda, and Despaigne. Someone else already has Vlad jr. So you can leave these guys off the list.

Thanks as always

[rhd]

Thanks RHD! Great stuff. Exactly the type of information I am looking for.

This may be too much to ask but coukd you rank the players you listed based purely on ceiling and potential? I already have Otani, Anraku, Maeda, and Despaigne. Someone else already has Vlad jr. So you can leave these guys off the list.

Thanks as always

That's really difficult. I have only a vague idea of what these guys' upsides are. I would take this ranking w a large shaker of salt.

- Y Gurriel
- S Fujinami
- T Yamada
- Y Yanagita
- D Perez
- J Groome
- A Puk
- A Hansen
- A Lange
- C Ray
- B Reed
- J Schwarz
- T Houck
- L Gurriel
- K Maitan
- L Fox
- G Heredia
- J Fernandez
- Y Alvarez
- R Pint
- B Rutherford
- N Ruiz
- J Ona
- R Arozarena
- Y Diaz
- A Ibanez
- L Armenteros
- JP Martinez
- L Yander La O
- Y Sierra
- V Gutierrez

There are also the other Asian imports that I didnt mention before: B Park, H Kim and D Lee, all on my list already. Also, Alexei Bell, who's in his 30's now and is farther down off the list.

[deaccat]

That's really difficult. I have only a vague idea of what these guys' upsides are. I would take this ranking w a large shaker of salt.

- Y Gurriel
- S Fujinami
- T Yamada
- Y Yanagita
- D Perez
- J Groome
- A Puk
- A Hansen
- A Lange
- C Ray
- B Reed
- J Schwarz
- T Houck
- L Gurriel
- K Maitan
- L Fox
- G Heredia
- J Fernandez
- Y Alvarez
- R Pint
- B Rutherford
- N Ruiz
- J Ona
- R Arozarena
- Y Diaz
- A Ibanez
- L Armenteros
- JP Martinez
- L Yander La O
- Y Sierra
- V Gutierrez

There are also the other Asian imports that I didnt mention before: B Park, H Kim and D Lee, all on my list already. Also, Alexei Bell, who's in his 30's now and is farther down off the list.

Thanks RHD! Your the man! I understand it is all very speculative.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Anyway to get it unlocked so that we might edit it ourselves?

[Hammer]

Anyway to get it unlocked so that we might edit it ourselves?

just copy and paste it to a new spreadsheet. easy peasy.

[mjl]

Anyway to get it unlocked so that we might edit it ourselves?

File >> Make a copy

[rhd]

Anyway to get it unlocked so that we might edit it ourselves?

OK, I created another copy of it that you can edit. Of course, if people edit it in place, it will get "messed up", but I think having edit access will allow you to download it. Go to the initial post to get the link. Let me know if this doesnt work.