2K16: Chris Carter

[DJBeasties]

BOOM or BUST?


The contact % concerns me that he will end up as a 300 AB guy. He has tantalizing power, the kind of power one drools over, and he hits a buttload of flyballs. It's all the makings of a 50 HR player. But the ~60% contact rate and the unfavorable hit rate makes it so he flirts with a .200 BA and nothing more than 500AB. Now that he is in Milwaukee, he is supposed to start as their cleanup hitter and will see the bulk of PT early but for two year in a row, he has been bad in the first half.

He will have Braun and Lucroy ahead of him and another big-power guy in Khris Davis behind him in the order. The Brewers lineup is very right-handed heavy so who knows how this shakes out but it doesn't look like Milwaukee has any 1B worth bringing up from the minors and there are no true 1B on their bench, so if Carter can even maintain the 66% contact rate he had in the 2nd half, he could be a boon.

I'm just not going to bet on it.

[joncarlos]

They traded the only interesting 1B they had (Mark Rogers? Brendan Roberts? Something like that) and they are starting Jonathan Villar and Will Middlebrooks at 3B. So they definitely don't have a lot of competition right now. I'm sure they'll play Lucroy at 1B sometimes. Probably the biggest danger is their glut of outfielders that might eventually need a place to play - I guess Domingo Santana is the everyday CF, but they also have Braun/K Davis and then they've got Brett Phillips lurking, plus a lot of flotsam like Kirk Nieuwenheius, Keon Broxton, Shane Peterson, etc.

I love Miller Park for him. I think he gets 450 ABs, and hits .230 with 28 HR. The NL is likely to be a little easier for him.

[revo]

His peripherals are virtually unchanged over the course of his career -- his K%, FB%, HR/FB and BA have all stayed relatively the same. So the odds may be against him increasing his BA over his career .217 mark, and if you want those HRs, then you're going to have to put up with that huge BA drain.

And as mentioned, he's a slow starter:

Career OPS
April - .635
May - .747
June - .817
July - .772
Aug - .802
Sept - .788

Can you put up with an epic BA drain until he gets rolling in June? Or maybe you can be the guy to swoop in and nab him from his frustrated owner then. But if the Brewers also fall victim to his slow start, then this is all for naught and he'll ride the pine like he did last season.

[Moonlight J]

He's on my no-draft list but on my trade list come Memorial Day

[jackmadden]

I have a tough time seeing Chris Carter riding the pine this year. The Brewers don't have any better options and Carter should have some trade value if he starts hitting in June/July like he has in the past. So for better or worse, Carter should be getting the majority of ABs at 1B while he's on the team.