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Anatomy of a championship: 12to in 2015

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  • Anatomy of a championship: 12to in 2015

    I've always enjoyed reading these when other people do them, and I've always enjoyed doing them. Mostly because I think it's important to remember when things actually work.

    Pre-season
    Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good. That was the story of my 12to championship. Prior to the season, I traded a $16 Jhonny Peralta for a $16 Matt Carpenter because I was already planning to keep a $20 Rollins and a $6 Owings at SS. I also traded a $5 Zach Wheeler, a $1 Tony Watson and a $40 Adrian Gonzalez for a $5 Todd Frazier. That was on 3/12. Wheeler was diagnosed with a torn UCL on 3/16.

    All stats listed for players below are only the stats the players accrued on my team. In some cases, cap issues forced me to leave really good players (ie Scherzer) on the bench for a week.

    So I went into the auction with these keepers:

    1B Frazier $15 (extended 2 years) .254-5hr
    SS Owings $6 (extended 1 year) .235-2-10-19r-5sb
    3B Carpenter $16 .272-28-101r-84rbi
    MI Rollins $20 .220-13-65r-41sb-12sb
    OF Stanton $15 .265-27-67-47r-4sb
    OF Jon Jay $6 .247-0-6-11r-0sb
    OF M Byrd $3 .244-22-72-56r
    P Kershaw $40 2.23 ERA, 283 K, 15 W, 0.89 WHIP
    P I Kennedy $14 4.62 ERA, 115 K, 7 W, 1.31 WHIP
    RP Rosenthal $7 2.13 ERA, 47sv, 2 w, 82k, 1.26 WHIP

    A pretty solid list for a 12-team NL, but by no means a world-beating group to start.

    The auction

    This league always makes me crazy. (Here’s the thread for this year’s auction:
    http://forum.rotojunkiefix.com/showt...highlight=12to ) I went in this year with a plan of waiting out the crazy stud prices, but it became pretty clear that people had too much money left over, and things like paying $28 for Denard Span were going to happen. My big purchase was a $38 David Wright and then I filled in with 10-20 dollar guys. It was tough since I came in with a LOT less money than most other teams.

    Any time you have an NL only team with the best pitcher and one of the best 2-3 hitters, you've got a good start, but I don't feel like I did a good job filling in. Pitching is strong, but I don't have a lot of trade bait for the dumping teams and I'm somehow light on power even with Stanton.

    Here’s what I ended up buying:

    C Salty $7 .069-1-1-3r
    2B Lemahieu $14 .303-6-85r-61rbi-23sb
    CI D Wright $38 .289-5-17-24r-2sb
    OF Inciarte $10 .303-6-73r-44rbi-21sb
    OF G Blanco $5 .288-4-24-51r-12sb
    UT Y Escobar $11 .305-9-70r-50rbi
    UT Ethier $3 .291-12-51r-49rbi

    Reserve - Brayan Pena, Sean Rodriguez

    P Shelby Miller $13 2.92 ERA, 137 K, 5 W, 1.23 WHIP
    P Y Petit $5 4.01era, 1w, 1.09whip
    P Haren $6 3.08 ERA, 85 K, 9 W, 1.06 WHIP
    P Chase Anderson $2 1.62 ERA, 17 K, 1 W, 0.90 WHIP
    RP Strop $1 3.80 ERA, 26 K, 1sv, 1w, 0.89 WHIP
    RP J Walden $5 0.87 ERA, 12 K 1sv, 1.06whip

    Reserve - Beachy, Mike Dunn, Chris Hatcher (come on, saves!)

    So, in hindsight, Lemahieu, Inciarte, Escobar, Ethier were great. Even Blanco was pretty good. And Haren and Shelby Miller were good too. Anderson got off to a good start and drew interest as a dump target.

    In-season moves

    Added Chris Heston (2.96 ERA, 104 K, 9 W, 1.17 WHIP) for $7 FAAB on 4/13.
    Traded Forrest Wall and Matt Wisler for Craig Kimbrel (2.72 ERA, 80 K, 35sv, 4 W, 1.00 WHIP) on 4/14
    Traded Ryan McMahon and a pick for Michael Morse (.194-1-4-3r) on 4/16 (oops)
    Traded Todd Frazier and flotsam for Wilson Ramos (.227-14-69-37r), Matt Holiday (.262-3-25-16r), Tony Watson, Jeff Locke, Y Solarte (.269-12-53-55r-1sb) on 4/20
    Traded Locke and Watson for Hyun-Jin Ryu on 4/24 (oops)
    Traded Ryu, Owings, Jay, Anderson, Billy McKinney and pick for Desclafani (4.69 ERA, 37 K, 2 W, 1.54 WHIP), Scherzer (3.24 ERA, 172 K, 8 w, 0.88 WHIP), Leake (4.25 ERA, 66 K, 6 W, 1.30 WHIP), Revere (.323-2-31-59r-20sb) on 5/21
    Added Ben Paulson (.274-4-18-16r) for $8 FAAB, Carter Capps (7 K, 0.00 ERA and WHIP) for $3 on 5/25
    Added Jason Motte (3.95 ERA, 11k, 2sv, 2w) for $16 FAAB on 6/8
    Added Eugenio Suarez (.284-12-45-40r-3sb) for $11 FAAB on 6/15
    Added Cole Gillespie (.280-1-7-7-1sb) for $9 FAAB on 7/6
    Traded Touki, Paulson, Capps for G Parra (.256-5-20-35r-7sb) and Jay Bruce (.176-10-30-27rbi) on 7/25
    Traded prospect Christian Arroyo for Mike Fiers (3.32 ERA, 59 K, 2 w, 1.06 WHIP) on 7/31
    Added JA Happ (1.34 ERA, 56 K, 7 W, 0.86 WHIP) for $7 FAAB on 8/3
    Added Tanner Roark for $2 FAAB on 9/7

    Not all of the trades paid off, but getting Scherzer and Kimbrel obviously really helped. I didn’t realize just how mediocre to bad my pitchers were outside the big 4. Getting huge value from 3 unexciting FAAB pickups in Happ, Heston and Suarez really made a huge difference. Having Solarte really helped with position flexibility.

    Even though I basically got nothing out of Wright or Holliday and even Stanton was a mild disappointment, I actually ended up fulfilling the plan of having contributors across the board on offense. I finished 3rd in AVG, HR, RBI, won runs and finished 4th in steals, with no 30 HR or 25 steal guys.

    I ended up winning the league by 2 points. The team behind me had Goldschmidt, Arenado, McCutchen, Bumgarner, Hamels, Strasburg, Heyward, Posey and Brandon Crawford. (Obviously they didn’t have all of them all year). You wouldn’t expect a team like that to lose to Suarez and Solarte and Heston, which is why I say it was mostly luck, but Kershaw and Scherzer did have a lot to do with it too.

    I finished 1st in ERA by a wide margin (3.15 to 3.29), 1st in Ks, only 3rd in wins (thanks, Shelby Miller), 3rd in saves, and 1st in WHIP by a wide margin (1.108 to 1.17). Once Kershaw remembered how to pitch, I knew I had the big ERA/WHIP cushion early which allowed me to chase wins and Ks down the stretch. My team posted 7 wins in the final week (including 2 each by Haren and Scherzer) and lucked into 2 wins from Kimbrel in week 25 to finally break out of the logjam in wins (finished with 82, teams behind me had 79, 76, 74).

  • #2
    Congratulations and great writeup!

    Your FAAB work was amazing.

    Comment


    • #3
      You had some serious breaks, and you needed every inch of them. The timing of you unloading Z Wheeler to some sucker was uncanny. Your in season faab was, dare I say it, fabulous. I absolutely cheered you on as it ceertainly looked like you were an underdog relative to the runner ups all-star team. Also, I made out so well on my rebuild trades with you early on, while I could still sell M Morse as a stud, and getting sterling returns back.

      I am left absolutely puzzled why we have a few middle pack muddlers who dont do rebuilds, and never come close to a money spot. Reading your team is important. There is a formula that you can draw from the history of the league. I took my job as a fun journey in itself, playing for the rebuild is every bit as involved as playing for a money finish, in terms of trying to maximize your footprint. I am giddy this off season, all I will say.

      In any case, I would say your moves worked out so well overall, along with your timing, as well as Kershaw being the alpha dog we all wish we were, led you to a beauty of a win.

      Comment


      • #4
        this one further proves my point, for those who maybe haven't won and panic over any major blunders or misfortunes - THAT'S not why they lose, as evidenced by the many misses. but you kept on plugging and worked the FA and trade avenues. funny that I was in that same W issue til very late, and I also leveraged Kershaw's excess of stats into ham-and-egging him with other players who could provide more W and K while not being able to dent ERA/Ratio.

        congrats!
        finished 10th in this 37th yr in 11-team-only NL 5x5
        own picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 9 in April 2022 1st-rd farmhand draft
        won in 2017 15 07 05 04 02 93 90 84

        SP SGray 16, TWalker 10, AWood 10, Price 3, KH Kim 2, Corbin 10
        RP Bednar 10, Bender 10, Graterol 2
        C Stallings 2, Casali 1
        1B Votto 10, 3B ERios 2, 1B Zimmerman 2, 2S Chisholm 5, 2B Hoerner 5, 2B Solano 2, 2B LGarcia 10, SS Gregorius 17
        OF Cain 14, Bader 1, Daza 1

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