Rebuild the NY Mets

[revo]

You’ve been tasked with rebuilding baseball’s biggest mess, the New York Mets. You need to take into account the Mets’ fans appetite for a win-now approach, as well as the fact the owners have paid boatloads for a new stadium that’s checking in at 75% of capacity.

Some players simply can’t be traded – the injured (and overpaid) Johan Santana and the injured (and overpaid) Jason Bay; and others won’t be, like Ike Davis and Jenrry Mejia.

Of the impending free agents, Carlos Beltran is owed $18.5 for the remainder of this season and has a no-trade clause; K-Rod is owed $11.5m and has a $3.5m buyout for next season; and Jose Reyes is owed $11m. David Wright, the team’s most popular player, is owed $14m for this season, and $15m for next year (and has a $1m buyout for ’13). Other players like Mike Pelfrey have hit a ceiling but may have solid value across the league; Angel Pagan and R.A Dickey were possibly Omar Minaya’s best finds off the scrap heap; and some other young players, like Josh Thole, Bobby Parnell and Daniel Murphy may not amount to much.

Reyes is most likely the team’s most tradable commodity, since he’s healthy and the Mets won’t sign him to the type of contract he’d land on the open market, likely a 6 year, $100m+ deal.

Assume the Mets will be out of playoff contention this season, and be realistic about what teams may be interested in these players as well as the potential return. You can land major-league caliber players in return to field a solid team to appease the fans, but also know the potential financial mess the Madoff scandal has left the team. The Mets current minor league system is also very shallow.


Here’s my rebuild:
1 – the Mets trade SS Jose Reyes to the Cincinnati Reds for OF Chris Heisey, P Mike Leake and SS prospect Billy Hamilton.
The Reds are contenders and view Reyes as their best SS since Barry Larkin. They’re also overloaded with young pitching and solid OFers. The Reds sign Reyes to the long-term deal he wants, and the Mets get a potential ace in Leake, a solid, older prospect who never got much of a chance in Heisey, and a top prospect in Hamilton.

2 – the Mets trade OF Carlos Beltran and $5m to the Texas Rangers for OF Julio Borbon and P prospect Michael Kirkman.
Beltran has a solid year for the Mets but gets the chance to head to the defending AL champs, so he waives his no-trade clause. Borbon is replaceable yet serviceable enough for the Mets, and they get another live arm in Kirkman.

3 – the Mets trade closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Washington Nationals for P Drew Storen.
The Mets find a solid market for K-Rod, with St. Louis, Toronto and the White Sox in the hunt for his services, but the Nationals begin to prepare for the start of the Harper/Strasburg era, and give up on Storen for the luxury of knowing games will be closed out in fine fashion.

4 – the Mets trade P Mike Pelfrey to the Kansas City Royals for prospects P Noel Arguelles and Tim Collins.
The Mets give up on the erratic Pelfrey, and find a willing taker in KC. While the Royals system is the most loaded in baseball, their major league staff is a mess. Even with parting with Arguelles and Collins, the Royals pitching system is still loaded.

5 – the Mets trade OF prospect Fernando Martinez to the Chicago White Sox for C prospect Tyler Flowers.
An exchange of prospects who made need a change of scenery.

6 – The Mets trade OF Angel Pagan and P RA Dickey to the Los Angeles Angels for OF Peter Bourjos and pitching prospect Garrett Richards.
While the Mets, and their fans, appreciate what scrapheap pickups Pagan and Dickey did for the team, the time was right to deal them to a contender that needed a boost. The Angels have fallen behind Texas, and while Bourjos is a solid player they have uber-prospect Mike Trout ready to take over in 2012. Pagan provides insurance for ’12 and can take over for Torii Hunter in 2013 once his contract expires. Dickey solidifies a rotation damaged by injuries and ineffectiveness.


So here’s your 2012 NY Mets:
C – Josh Thole/Tyler Flowers
1B – Ike Davis
2B – Brad Emaus/Reese Havens
SS – Billy Hamilton/Ruben Tejada
3B – David Wright
LF – Chris Heisey
CF – Peter Bourjos/ Julio Borbon
RF – Jason Bay

P1 – Johan Santana
P2 – Mike Leake
P3 – Jonathan Niese
P4 – Jennry Mejia
P5 –Dillon Gee/Chris Young/Garrett Richards
CL – Drew Storen
SU – Bobby Parnell
BP – Tim Collins
BP – Noel Arguelles
BP - Michael Kirkman

Let's see what you would do!

[Bob Kohm]

Sitting in Washington, you're seriously, seriously off the rails if you believe the Nats will give up Storen for the "luxury" of a guy like K-Rod. The Nats view it more like the Strasburg/Harper/Storen era.

[DJBeasties]

I like it overall but feel pretty doubtful on the trade with the Nats and the trade with the Angels.

[mjl]

also, do you think the Royals care what their major league rotation looks like right now?

I think the Reds and Rangers trades look reasonable though.

[cavebird]

also, do you think the Royals care what their major league rotation looks like right now?

I think the Reds and Rangers trades look reasonable though.

Unless the Reds have a long-term deal with Reyes lined up, I don't think they give up that much for a rental. The Rangers deal looks reasonable, but only at midseason when the $5 million is most of what is left on the deal. To get return for Beltran at this point, you have to eat the money.

[chancellor]

Good stuff, revo. The one I'd be most in doubt of is the deal with the Angels. I doubt they'd let Bourjos go for anyone other than a deal that would be a huge boost (ala CC Sabathia to the Brewers in his walk year).

[joncarlos]

Sell it to Cuban and sign Pujols

[Blue&White]

I'm a Mets fan so this could be fun. I'd need to give this some thought, but just a few comments on your initial proposals:

1. I like the Reyes trade and, if they can sign him long term, think that is reasonable. I'd be happy to see that happen. If Reyes becomes an FA, I can see the Phillies trying to grab him as Rollins is in a contract year and the Phils have shown no real interest to date in re-signing him. Reyes in a Phillies uni would be ultimate kick in the nads for the Mets and I think they will do anything to keep them from happening.

2. The Beltran seems reasonable to me too but I think it's going to depend on how things go this season. Beltran is a rental and he's starting to break down. So, it's really not clear how much the Mets can really get for him right now. If he stays hot, and the Mets continue to lose (which is very plausible at this point given how awful their pen is), I can see him being gone in the next 45 days if they can find a taker.

3. There is no way this is going to happen. There is no way the Nats would do that. The only way they move Frankie is if there is a team who really needs a closer and think he's the missing link to a playoff run. Otherwise, the Mets are going to own that deal probably into next year (unless they can avoid giving him 55 finishes). I like the idea, but there is zero chance that happens.

4. I think Pelfrey's trade value right now is close to zero. If he can put together a few decent games then maybe they can get something for him, but it won't be much and it won't be any kind of stud prospects.

5. Love the idea. I don't know anything about Tyler Flowers and I think this idea is awesome.

6. I don't know why the Mets would trade a cheap Dickey or Pagan at this point. I can see moving Pagan but I'm not sure what you really get for him. He's going to be 30 soon, and he's never really been an every day player. He had a nice season last year, but now that he's beginning the season as a named starter he's just been awful. It's not just his lousy average but his whole approach at the plate has just been horrible. He's lucky Duda also crapped the bed because I think if Duda was hitting the Mets would consider moving Beltran back to center, Duda to right, and Pagan to the bench. And, once Bay comes back, I can still see them doing something where maybe Harris goes to center and Pagan goes to the bench. He needs to to pick it up big time if he wants to keep his job. And, Dickey is like 37 or so. I'm not against moving him but I'm not sure what you're going to get for him.

Btw, I think your 75% capacity estimate is way high. I think they are going to be closer to 50% as the season rolls on, and if they trade Beltran and Reyes you will see attendance plummet. That is not a cheap ticket and people are not going to throw away good money to watch an awful product. And, the Mets have been awful for a long time now. Sure, they came 1 out away from the World Series but that was 5 years ago now. Since then, they have been a laughingstock with late season collapses and sub .500 seasons. The quickest way out of this mess is for the Wilpons to sell the team but I don't see that happening so fast either.

A co-worker of mine put the Mets over/under on the Mets season at 75. He and I have a bet and I took the under. I think I'm going to clean up on that bet too. I think they win maybe 70 games this year. Maybe.

[revo]

I had two other potential landing spots for Jose Reyes -- to Boston for Jed Lowrie, Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish and another prospect; or to the Angels for Bourjos, Conger & Chatwood. Again, this assumes Reyes is NOT a rental, that he signs an extension as soon as he's acquired.

Once I made a few of the deals, I realized that Dickey, although cheap, didn't fit, and packaging him with a Pagan (who's up for another round of arbitration after the season) could be a nice cheap solution for a contending team with a couple of holes. The cheapness fits the Mets, but their ages don't. The Angels are also panickers and if they're behind Texas again and Bourjos is struggling, sure I can see them moving him with the thinking Trout is taking his job next year anyway.

K-Rod to Washington? I had a few other possibilities (to STL for Jenkins + Lynn; to TOR for Gose + Z.Stewart; to CWS for Flowers + J. Mitchell) but the Nats are not afraid of spending money and if Storen has a bad year, well, it's not the first time a college closer failed at the MLB level. I don't see him at all in the Strasburg/Harper class, and while I think the likelihood of him being dealt was remote, hey, you never know. The Yankees wouldn't trade Ian Kennedy either, right?

Beltran is an interesting case because if he continues to hit and show he's healthy, by mid-year he'd only be owed $9m or so. The Mets can't afford to trade him just for salary relief -- they need prospects. Texas can make a splash and easily take on his contract, and he's light years better than Borbon/Murphy. I also looked at the Dodgers (who I had giving up Kenley Jansen), but that team is such a mess that who knows what's gonna happen there.

Pelfrey to KC makes sense since even though they're not gonna contend this year, you can't just go all prospects in your rotation. For every one time that works out, 10 times it doesn't. And he's still cheap enough to get a few prospects in return. I also had Detroit and Seattle in the mix for him.

[mjl]

Pelfrey to KC makes sense since even though they're not gonna contend this year, you can't just go all prospects in your rotation. For every one time that works out, 10 times it doesn't. And he's still cheap enough to get a few prospects in return. I also had Detroit and Seattle in the mix for him.

I agree, but I think the Royals are more likely to buy one or two starters on the FA market than trade for one. Granted the prospects we're talking about aren't particularly important ones... but I also don't see the Royals voluntarily taking on Pelfrey's $4m contract during this season. Maybe if the Mets contributed some money, or if it was in the offseason...

- Mike

[ThatRogue]

This is an interesting write-up, but one thing it ignores is the Nationals current bullpen situation. Sean Burnett is a potential find as the Nats closer, and Drew Storen is excelling in the eighth inning set-up role. They have absolutely no need to trade for K-Rod, but instead need to promote their own bullpen as a lights-out combination. Plus they have other power arms (Clippard, Ballester) in waiting that make K-Rod an unnecessary, expensive commodity.

I have to run...but I'll comment further, later...

[cavebird]

I had two other potential landing spots for Jose Reyes -- to Boston for Jed Lowrie, Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish and another prospect; or to the Angels for Bourjos, Conger & Chatwood. Again, this assumes Reyes is NOT a rental, that he signs an extension as soon as he's acquired.

Once I made a few of the deals, I realized that Dickey, although cheap, didn't fit, and packaging him with a Pagan (who's up for another round of arbitration after the season) could be a nice cheap solution for a contending team with a couple of holes. The cheapness fits the Mets, but their ages don't. The Angels are also panickers and if they're behind Texas again and Bourjos is struggling, sure I can see them moving him with the thinking Trout is taking his job next year anyway.

K-Rod to Washington? I had a few other possibilities (to STL for Jenkins + Lynn; to TOR for Gose + Z.Stewart; to CWS for Flowers + J. Mitchell) but the Nats are not afraid of spending money and if Storen has a bad year, well, it's not the first time a college closer failed at the MLB level. I don't see him at all in the Strasburg/Harper class, and while I think the likelihood of him being dealt was remote, hey, you never know. The Yankees wouldn't trade Ian Kennedy either, right?

Beltran is an interesting case because if he continues to hit and show he's healthy, by mid-year he'd only be owed $9m or so. The Mets can't afford to trade him just for salary relief -- they need prospects. Texas can make a splash and easily take on his contract, and he's light years better than Borbon/Murphy. I also looked at the Dodgers (who I had giving up Kenley Jansen), but that team is such a mess that who knows what's gonna happen there.

Pelfrey to KC makes sense since even though they're not gonna contend this year, you can't just go all prospects in your rotation. For every one time that works out, 10 times it doesn't. And he's still cheap enough to get a few prospects in return. I also had Detroit and Seattle in the mix for him.

I don't see a couple of these points. I don't see K-Rod as having any trade value right now given his contract and off-the-field issues. If they can dump the contract they aren't going to get anything in return. I also don't see the Angels thinking of Bourjus as expendable and being replaced by Trout. I think Trout replaces Abreu who won't come back next year. I also wonder about the trade value of Beltran. They could get something for him if they eat the money (whenever the trade takes place), but that assumes that Beltran both hits and stays healthy, both of which are open questions (and I say this as a Beltran fantasy owner). I doubt he is light years better than David Murphy, too. As for Pelfrey, if he starts pitching well, he could fetch something, but I doubt it would be in KC. On the other hand, he isn't that expensive and if he pitches well, the Mets should just keep him. Until his ERA gets below 10, I don't know why anyone would take him at all.

[ShadeEagle]

K-Rod to Washington? I had a few other possibilities (to STL for Jenkins + Lynn; to TOR for Gose + Z.Stewart; to CWS for Flowers + J. Mitchell) but the Nats are not afraid of spending money and if Storen has a bad year, well, it's not the first time a college closer failed at the MLB level. I don't see him at all in the Strasburg/Harper class, and while I think the likelihood of him being dealt was remote, hey, you never know. The Yankees wouldn't trade Ian Kennedy either, right?

It's a marketing thing here; while I agree that he's not in the Strasburg/Harper class, the front office believes (or has been doing their best to act like they believe, at least) that Storen is in that class. Even if the financials and on-field performance make sense, it still wouldn't happen. This isn't a smart group.

[revo]

I don't see a couple of these points. I don't see K-Rod as having any trade value right now given his contract and off-the-field issues. If they can dump the contract they aren't going to get anything in return. I also don't see the Angels thinking of Bourjus as expendable and being replaced by Trout. I think Trout replaces Abreu who won't come back next year. I also wonder about the trade value of Beltran. They could get something for him if they eat the money (whenever the trade takes place), but that assumes that Beltran both hits and stays healthy, both of which are open questions (and I say this as a Beltran fantasy owner). I doubt he is light years better than David Murphy, too. As for Pelfrey, if he starts pitching well, he could fetch something, but I doubt it would be in KC. On the other hand, he isn't that expensive and if he pitches well, the Mets should just keep him. Until his ERA gets below 10, I don't know why anyone would take him at all.

Why assume these deals are to be made "right now?" The Mets are still in it now. If they made these trades today, there would be a rebellion among season ticket holders.

The assumption is these can/will be trades made in June/July.

[Don Quixote]

Why assume these deals are to be made "right now?" The Mets are still in it now. If they made these trades today, there would be a rebellion among season ticket holders.

The assumption is these can/will be trades made in June/July.

The Mets have season ticket holders? If so, they must be the kind who'll put up with anything.

I can think of two good reason to make deals in May--One, that they may get more earlier than later; and Two, they're more likely to find a panicky shmuck of a GM who'll give up the ranch for the mediocrities (other than Reyes) the Mets are offering.

To comment on a few of the proposed deals--

Reyes to the Reds--Not likely to happen any time soon. Janish has been surprisingly decent with the bat this year and always plays very fine defense. Even if they were unhappy with him, Hamilton is the preferred solution down the line, with Renteria or Chris Valaika in the interim. BTW, Heisey is 26, not exactly old, and while he deserves a shot at starting somewhere, I doubt that the NY situation is the right one, as I doubt the fans would appreciate a player who does nothing with excellence but everything well enough.

K-Rod for Storen? Surely you're joking (and don't call me Shirley). Why would the Nationals do this? If they're going to contend (very unlikely), the existing bullpen will have to shine, and if it's good, why trade? If he's dealt, it's to a contender as a setup guy, and i don't see contenders wanting to be saddled with him.

Pelfrey to the Royals? This could happen only if Dayton Moore has another of his epic brain cramps. KC has lots of meh guys at the big league level; why give up prospects for more meh?