Would you keep Jose Fernandez or Cody Allen this year only?

[cardboardbox]

Its more complicated but essentially the question is: Would you keep a $6 Fernandez or a $6 Cody Allen this year only in a league that uses Saves + Holds instead of Saves? Using BHQ custom $ values Allen is $2.41 more profitable but since there is an unlimited supply of holds available as free agents in season, I'm thinking SP is better to keep even at lower profit.

[GwynnInTheHall]

In a holds plus saves league it's far easier to pick up that category off the waiver. However, do you really think Fernandez will return early enough and be effective enough to warrant keeping him at all?

[cardboardbox]

In a holds plus saves league it's far easier to pick up that category off the waiver. However, do you really think Fernandez will return early enough and be effective enough to warrant keeping him at all?

HQ is projecting 92 IP, probably July 1 return date. Of course he could have setbacks and not return until Sept, or next year.

[GwynnInTheHall]

HQ is projecting 92 IP, probably July 1 return date. Of course he could have setbacks and not return until Sept, or next year.

That's what I would weigh v a bankable value in Allen. Guys returning from TJ surgery are never a great bet out of the gate. Can you trade him for something else of greater value?

[cardboardbox]

That's what I would weigh v a bankable value in Allen. Guys returning from TJ surgery are never a great bet out of the gate. Can you trade him for something else of greater value?

I tried, made some good offers to teams without enough keepers but no one accepted and the deadline has passed. If Fernandez is back in the Auction, I expect he'd go for more than $10 on keeper value alone so thats a plus, he'd soak up money.

[madducks]

I'm leaning toward Allen but it's close. I never gave it much thought before but saves+holds really does diminish the value of closers.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I tried, made some good offers to teams without enough keepers but no when accepted and the deadline has passed. If Fernandez is back in the Auction, I expect he'd go for more than $10 on keeper value alone so thats a plus, he'd soak up money.

That's an excellent way to look at it and if YOU can possibly get him back cheap he'd be on a new contract correct?

[cardboardbox]

That's an excellent way to look at it and if YOU can possibly get him back cheap he'd be on a new contract correct?

Yes he'd be on a new contract, but I'm all in for this year so I won't be able to get him back. I'd probably go to 9 or 10 and I doubt thats enough to get him. Assuming he's back to 100% next year, thats a $30+ SP in my league. If there are just two rebuilding teams who dont care about 2015, I could see bidding going well past $15.

[cardboardbox]

I'm leaning toward Allen but it's close. I never gave it much thought before but saves+holds really does diminish the value of closers.

yes it kills their value. Even if I bought no RP at the auction, I could find plenty of holds in the free agent pool. A closer with poor peripherals like Hawkins is worthless, better to find a good setup guy.

[joncarlos]

Is this a H2H league? If so then I'm definitely keeping Fernandez.

Either way, if you keep Fern, you can stash him on the DL for the first 2 months and get value out of a Shawn Kelley type.

I seriously love Allen and I'm not sure that's even enough to sway me, but it's a consideration.

[GwynnInTheHall]

yes it kills their value. Even if I bought no RP at the auction, I could find plenty of holds in the free agent pool. A closer with poor peripherals like Hawkins is worthless, better to find a good setup guy.

I do this every year in my hold plus saves league. I keep Chapman and load up on guys with K rates over 9

[cardboardbox]

Is this a H2H league? If so then I'm definitely keeping Fernandez.

Either way, if you keep Fern, you can stash him on the DL for the first 2 months and get value out of a Shawn Kelley type.

I seriously love Allen and I'm not sure that's even enough to sway me, but it's a consideration.

No, regular 5x5 but with holds + saves instead of saves. Its also weekly lineups.

June 15th is the earliest Fernandez could be back but I'm expecting July 1 or later. Why are you so sure you'd keep Fernandez? Is it because a good SP (I'm not expecting great his first 3 months back) is worth way more in this format than a great RP?

[chancellor]

With saves+holds, I'd keep Fernandez, too. You should get good, though not great, production for half the season, followed by what should be a full return to monsterness in 2016. Or, if you're in the running for a pennant, a $6 Fernandez will carry a whole lot more value than a $6 Allen and could bring you valuable piece(s) back in a dump deal.

[minnehan]

Fernandez threw off the mound today without any issues. Most sources point to a June 1st return. Yes, he'll be on a pitch count, but he's still worth owning this year.

[cardboardbox]

With saves+holds, I'd keep Fernandez, too. You should get good, though not great, production for half the season, followed by what should be a full return to monsterness in 2016. Or, if you're in the running for a pennant, a $6 Fernandez will carry a whole lot more value than a $6 Allen and could bring you valuable piece(s) back in a dump deal.

Saves + holds is what complicates this issue. I'd say Fernandez just because his name alone has significant trade value, almost regardless of the numbers he puts up this year, assuming he stays healthy upon return.

I cant keep Fernandez next year. He's going back into the auction in 2016. If I could keep him, yes I would definitely favor him over Allen. I think I would lean to Fernandez if it was certain he'd pitch half a season and be good, but not great. I worry that he has set backs and I get nothing out of him.

Fernandez threw off the mound today without any issues. Most sources point to a June 1st return. Yes, he'll be on a pitch count, but he's still worth owning this year.

First I've heard of that early a return. He'll probably get shutdown early so not sure an early return matters if it simply means he'll be done for season in August instead of Sept.