Active BA Leader

[chancellor]

The point is not that SBs lack any value, it is that they are worth more in fantasy than in real baseball.

Hmmm...interesting hypothesis, but I don't agree. Mathematically, I'm not clear on how to prove it either way, however. If SBs are that low in value in real baseball, why do teams reduce their pitching effectiveness (by pitching out of the stretch and often changing their pitch type strategy) and fielding effectiveness (by changing the fielding position of the first baseman)?

[cavebird]

Hmmm...interesting hypothesis, but I don't agree. Mathematically, I'm not clear on how to prove it either way, however. If SBs are that low in value in real baseball, why do teams reduce their pitching effectiveness (by pitching out of the stretch and often changing their pitch type strategy) and fielding effectiveness (by changing the fielding position of the first baseman)?

Don't know why, but baseball teams have done less effective things "by the book" many times in history. Greg Maddux was one of the most heady pitchers in baseball history and he just ignored the baserunners.

[ThatRogue]

In the 10th inning of the Mets-Nats game, with one out, Jose Reyes took off to steal 2B. David Wright then hit a chopper to 3rd base and, as Hairston threw to first, Reyes kept going and wound up on 3B. While the Mets failed to capitalize (walk to Davis, ground out by Pagan), that's the kind of thing about speed that Sabermetrics currently fails to qualify/value (and trust me, I am a believer in the value of statistical analysis).

[RSF]

I think there's been a ton of research on this, and it is pretty clear that the value of a SB in MLB is pretty low. Here's one article http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...alue_of_th.php

We can calculate the value in Fantasy, and it's hugely larger than that.

So, I'm not sure I see where you get the ambiguity about the relative value. Granted, there's imperfections in both sides of the measurement here...but the value in fantasy is many, many times greater than in real baseball, isn't it? That has to swamp the potential measurement errors, unless I'm missing something very large

[Judge Jude]

Well, by all accounts a caught stealing is something like twice as bad as a stolen base.
So 20 steals in 30 attempts isn't really getting you anywhere, on balance.

That's part of the disconnect - a speedy guy at first may or may not distract a pitcher, but if he gets thrown out, he's quite a rally killer for the offense.

[Don Quixote]

This is where sabermetrics goes too far. Exceptionally fast and successful basestealers change the way the game is played. The pitcher loses some focus on the hitter (less likely to throw offspeed stuff, pitchouts creating hitters counts), the defense is configured differently (runner breaks, guys move out of position, holes are created), etc. This has an impact on a team's ability to score runs. Similarly, certain faster players tend to score more as a percentage of times on base. At some point in the past I did this analysis on Jose Reyes, which helped explain that despite his lower than desired OBP for a leadoff hitter, the Mets had a significantly better record when he played as compared to when he did not. As an example, despite Matt Holliday having a .053 advantage in OBP and a .111 advantage in SLG (due to 70 more doubles and 107 more HRs), he scores in 15.5% of his plate appearances (669/4318) as compared to Jose Reyes scoring in 14.9% of his plate appearances (638/4283). Back out the HRs (Holliday reaches base 36.1% of the time in which he does not homer, and Reyes reaches base 32.3% of the time he does not homer) and Reyes scores more frequently when not driving himself in, despite Holliday maintaining his significant OBP advantage. Now I know there are many factors I have not included (lineup quality, ballparks, etc.), but there is an argument that elite speed has a value that sabermetrics tends to underrate.

The fact that Reyes leads off and has the "meat" of the order (if one can say that about the Mets #2-5) behind him, while Holliday hits 4th and has the #5-8 guys behind him probably accounts for the difference.

[ThatRogue]

I think there's been a ton of research on this, and it is pretty clear that the value of a SB in MLB is pretty low. Here's one article http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...alue_of_th.php

We can calculate the value in Fantasy, and it's hugely larger than that.

So, I'm not sure I see where you get the ambiguity about the relative value. Granted, there's imperfections in both sides of the measurement here...but the value in fantasy is many, many times greater than in real baseball, isn't it? That has to swamp the potential measurement errors, unless I'm missing something very large

My premise was never that steals are as valuable in real baseball as they are in fantasy baseball. That's not even an issue for debate. My premise is that elite speedsters, such as Reyes and Ichiro have a value that, in some cases, is not measured by current sabermetric analysis.

Well, by all accounts a caught stealing is something like twice as bad as a stolen base.
So 20 steals in 30 attempts isn't really getting you anywhere, on balance.

That's part of the disconnect - a speedy guy at first may or may not distract a pitcher, but if he gets thrown out, he's quite a rally killer for the offense.

This is pretty standard knowledge...and recent research indicates that the true breakeven is closer to 75% than 66.7%...but again, that's not my issue. If the analysis indicates that success rates below 75% are bad for your team, where are the metrics that identify the incremental value of an 80%+ basestealer (i.e. the benefit for exceeding breakeven quite substantially)? Or the value of a player than can go from 1st to 3rd on an infield groundout...or other feats of speed. I think there has been such a rush to condemn stolen bases (and rightfully so, because the cost of the failed SB attempt needed to be understood), that even elite speed tends to be discounted. RSF stated that runs are a useless statistic in real baseball and that SBs are overrated, and I think this is an overreaction.

We all know that there are specific times in which small ball tactics have usefulness. One example is when trying to advance a runner late in a ballgame when the value of the run means more because of a decreased number of opportunities to score...especially with a slow, less powerful batter at the plate that is more likely to hit into a double play than advance the runner with a hit. But, in these instances, when the baserunner is extremely fast with an 80%+ SB success rate, the odds would seem to indicate that attempting to steal is a better tactic to move the player to second because it has a much lower chance of causing an out than a bunt (although I have not done the specific analysis of man on second with 0 out, vs. man on second with 1 out, vs. man on 1st with one out, vs. no one on with one out).

Basestealing analyses have been done in the aggregate, and, what I am suggesting is that additional analysis is needed to examine the benefits of elite speedsters (both for basestealing and general baserunning), to determine the impact of such players on teams' ability to score runs.

[ThatRogue]

The fact that Reyes leads off and has the "meat" of the order (if one can say that about the Mets #2-5) behind him, while Holliday hits 4th and has the #5-8 guys behind him probably accounts for the difference.

I think that their historical home ballpark disparity would probably balance out the difference in lineup position.

Again, it is a fact that despite the difference in doubles (again, not considering HRs), Reyes is in scoring position far more often than is Holliday...and can leverage his speed to score from first or second more frequently than can Holliday.

[RSF]

My premise was never that steals are as valuable in real baseball as they are in fantasy baseball. That's not even an issue for debate. My premise is that elite speedsters, such as Reyes and Ichiro have a value that, in some cases, is not measured by current sabermetric analysis.

Agree with this part of it---I think the assumption of 'zero impact' or 'near-zero' in mainstream saber circles is underestimating the impact of speed. I'm not sure how large an impact it is, but instinctually do feel it is being underplayed some.

I suspect this may be an example of where the proof standard generally used in sabermetrics makes it hard to prove impacts, in other words....a very high bar will tend to hide some real impacts as well as some unreal ones.

[RSF]

To clarify one thing that appears to be incorrectly stated in this thread:

The "break even" percentage at which stolen bases are a boon or a bane to a club is not a fixed number. It is dependent on the total offense in the league for that year and will change on a yearly basis. People normally use 75% but that's just because it's easy, not because it's mathematically correct.

Moreover, there are different SB values and penalties based on individual situations. A runner on first with no outs is worth .9116 runs, statistically speaking. Stealing second bumps that up to 1.811 runs but getting caught knocks it all the way down to .2783. The penalty for getting caught is more than twice the gain for success. Those figures change dramatically based on circumstance. Runners don't go often when there's a guy on 1st and 3rd with no outs. Why not? Well the expected runs in 1st and 3rd with no outs is 1.8807. The expected runs for 2nd and 3rd with no outs is 2.0356. The expected runs for a runner on 3rd with 1 out is 1.0303. It's just not worth the risk.

Quite true. And even beyond that, it changes based on score, inning, pitcher, and upcoming batters if we want to get to the level of analyzing a specific decision, rather than the general idea of a SB.

[ThatRogue]

Wouldn't that indicate that Ichiro's value on a team with substandard offensive production (i.e. the Mariners) is higher than some might think?

(Of course, if Ichiro would swing for the home run more often, considering what most people assume is his true power potential, that would increase his value even further and improve the Mariners' overall offensive production. But that is another issue.)