Active BA Leader

[amcg]

As of today, we have a tie at the top of the active MLB career BA leaderboard.

The two names: Ichiro Suzuki and... Albert Pujols, both proudly supporting a career AVG of .3308 since their rookie seasons in 2001.

Just one more reason why Pujols is fricking incredible.

[Hammer]

and Ichiro is underrated because he isnt nearly as valuable in fantasy baseball as he is in reality baseball.

[Wahoo]

and Ichiro is underrated because he isnt nearly as valuable in fantasy baseball as he is in reality baseball.

Is that true? I always thought he was plenty valuable in fantasy baseball given his BA and SBs but that he was overrated in real baseball, despite his great D, because of his lack of walks and power, resulting in a career .805 OPS (which is not much better than average for an OF).

[Hammer]

Is that true? I always thought he was plenty valuable in fantasy baseball given his BA and SBs but that he was overrated in real baseball, despite his great D, because of his lack of walks and power, resulting in a career .805 OPS (which is not much better than average for an OF).

perhaps its my own personal bias but I rate him a tick above guys like Pierre and Bourn, yet he always goes 100 or so picks higher. His defense is terrific and 200+ hits 10 years in a row cant be overlooked.

[schlesinj]

I play in 4x4 leagues so those guys always have a ton of value. One thing I love about Ichiro is he does not walk, so that .330 BA have more value than a much higher batting average of a player that walks a ton.

[Gregg]

perhaps its my own personal bias but I rate him a tick above guys like Pierre and Bourn, yet he always goes 100 or so picks higher. His defense is terrific and 200+ hits 10 years in a row cant be overlooked.

Me too. That is why I have never owned him.

[amcg]

One thing I love about Ichiro is he does not walk, so that .330 BA have more value than a much higher batting average of a player that walks a ton.

This is key to Ichiro's fantasy valuation and where he should go in drafts. His best BA years are the equivalent to Bonds' 73HR or Rickey's 100+ SBs in terms of dominating a category.

A lot of people don't take the time to value BA properly and instead perform a mental calculation similar to >.280 good, <.280 bad... They don't realise just HOW good Ichiro's BA can be.

[Judge Jude]

BBHQ value results for Ichiro, Pierre, Bourn, going backward from 2010 to 2006:

Ichiro 27 28 27 33 30
Pierre 29 17 16 27 26
Bourn 23 28 14

(Pierre was a part-timer in 2009 and 2008, Bourn came up in 2008)

As for real baseball, Ichiro's career OPS+ is just 117, which is strong for a CF but would be somewhat mediocre for a corner OF. His durability in unbelievable, too, which makes him a bit better than that figure. Puckett was a 124 for 7831 PA, Ichiro has 7366 PA so far.

[schlesinj]

Just as a comp in my NL 4x4 Bourn went for $40 plus the last two years and Ichiro went for $40 in the AL.

[RSF]

and Ichiro is underrated because he isnt nearly as valuable in fantasy baseball as he is in reality baseball.

I'd think the opposite is actually the case, really. His not-extraordinary OBP and lack of power take some bite out of his real-world value (though his defense adds some back) while his real-baseball useless runs and real-baseball overrated steals are highly valued in fantasy. With most leagues using BA and not OBP, that too plays to his strength in fantasy

[ThatRogue]

This is where sabermetrics goes too far. Exceptionally fast and successful basestealers change the way the game is played. The pitcher loses some focus on the hitter (less likely to throw offspeed stuff, pitchouts creating hitters counts), the defense is configured differently (runner breaks, guys move out of position, holes are created), etc. This has an impact on a team's ability to score runs. Similarly, certain faster players tend to score more as a percentage of times on base. At some point in the past I did this analysis on Jose Reyes, which helped explain that despite his lower than desired OBP for a leadoff hitter, the Mets had a significantly better record when he played as compared to when he did not. As an example, despite Matt Holliday having a .053 advantage in OBP and a .111 advantage in SLG (due to 70 more doubles and 107 more HRs), he scores in 15.5% of his plate appearances (669/4318) as compared to Jose Reyes scoring in 14.9% of his plate appearances (638/4283). Back out the HRs (Holliday reaches base 36.1% of the time in which he does not homer, and Reyes reaches base 32.3% of the time he does not homer) and Reyes scores more frequently when not driving himself in, despite Holliday maintaining his significant OBP advantage. Now I know there are many factors I have not included (lineup quality, ballparks, etc.), but there is an argument that elite speed has a value that sabermetrics tends to underrate.

The Mariners are routinely at the bottom of the AL standings in SLG. That can be attributed both to their home ballpark and to the quality of players in their lineup. In such a case, playing station-to-station baseball and waiting for the three-run home run has limited value for the Mariners as compared to other teams. By getting on base at a .376 clip and moving himself into scoring position at an 81% success rate, Ichiro is putting his team in a better position to score runs.

[Judge Jude]

"Exceptionally fast and successful basestealers change the way the game is played. The pitcher loses some focus on the hitter (less likely to throw offspeed stuff, pitchouts creating hitters counts), the defense is configured differently (runner breaks, guys move out of position, holes are created), etc. This has an impact on a team's ability to score runs."

It sounds good on paper, but if the correlation is actually there in terms of wins and losses - beyond some isolated look - I haven't seen it. And if the correlation between an attribute and results doesn't hold up on a large scale, then maybe the original hypothesis needs tweaking.

But maybe there are newer studies that found something older ones did not.

[RSF]

Agreed; this is where sabermetrics is its most valuable---when it challenges conventional wisdom.

Now, that said, it's quite fair to suggest speed on the bases impacts pitching, and also that our ability to measure that impact is limited and imperfect. However, everything I've seen on the subject is consistent with what Judge Jude says---it is not THAT large, either.

Just as the fact we can't measure it perfectly doesn't mean it is valueless, it also doesn't mean we can assign huge value to it without a basis for doing so

[ThatRogue]

I'd be interested in seeing a study of runs scored per PA (exclusive of HR, obviously) for elite speedsters (multiple 30 SB seasons with career success rates of 80% or more). I'd also be interested in a study of elite power hitters that examines whether guys who are perceived to hit the ball harder tend to have higher than average BABIP.

Sheehan noted something interesting here. He said that runners on first tend to be more disruptive to the defense...but also implied it was beneficial to keep that runner on first than have him steal second, despite noting the increase in runs scored when a runner is on second than when a runner is on first. I understand what he was trying to explain...but that stuck me as an odd point to make because it is always better to have a runner on second than on first, assuming all other things are equal.

[RSF]

I'd be interested in seeing a study of runs scored per PA (exclusive of HR, obviously) for elite speedsters (multiple 30 SB seasons with career success rates of 80% or more). I'd also be interested in a study of elite power hitters that examines whether guys who are perceived to hit the ball harder tend to have higher than average BABIP.

Sheehan noted something interesting here. He said that runners on first tend to be more disruptive to the defense...but also implied it was beneficial to keep that runner on first than have him steal second, despite noting the increase in runs scored when a runner is on second than when a runner is on first. I understand what he was trying to explain...but that stuck me as an odd point to make because it is always better to have a runner on second than on first, assuming all other things are equal.

Those studies won't address the prior points being made, though they might be interesting---though perhaps not, I think.

The point is not that SBs lack any value, it is that they are worth more in fantasy than in real baseball. In fantasy, depending on your league and approach to SGP, they are (as a category) something towards 20% of offense and they are the most highly concentrated offensive stat. These things together mean elite speedsters are valued far more than other skillsets.

There is virtually zero chance you'll get anything like that level of impact of SBs on overall offensive scoring in real baseball, and that's why the comments earlier were made.