RHD's Latest Top 150 Roto Prospects (End-of-Season Edition)

[rhd]

Here's my latest list. I was going to post it before BA started their League lists last week, but decided to wait until the MLB season was over. I did make some changes after looking at their lists, as well as John Sickels' end of year list.

Same spiel as usual: I generally follow BA's prospect eligibility requirements, which are <=130 MLB AB or <=50 MLB IP. Unlike BA tho, amateurs, unsigned draftees and foreign players are eligible. Also, while BA has a different IP limit for relievers (30 IP?), relievers are eligible as long as they dont have >50 IP. As usual, this is for roto, not 'real' baseball, so pitchers are downgraded some, catchers downgraded somewhat (unless they're elite prospects and their bat will play at any position), actual closers upgraded a lot, SB guys who project to get playing time get upgraded some, and guys who either currently are or project to soon be regulars can get upgraded quite a bit. Position listed is their current primary one to the best of my knowledge (correct me if I'm wrong), not the one they're likely to end up at.

Rnk Name Pos Org +/- Prev
1 Byron Buxton OF Min 0 1
2 George Springer OF Hou 3 5
3 Oscar Taveras OF StL 0 3
4 Xander Bogaerts SS Bos 5 9
5 Miguel Angel Sano 3B Min -1 4
6 Archie Bradley SP Ari 6 12
7 Taijuan Walker SP Sea 6 13
8 Carlos Correa SS Hou 10 18
9 Javier Baez SS CHC 7 16
10 Addison Russell SS Oak 14 24
11 Kris Bryant 3B CHC 6 17
12 Masahiro Tanaka SP Japan 23 35
13 Carlos Rodon SP College 46 59
14 Billy Hamilton OF Cin -8 6
15 Greg Polanco OF Pit -1 14
16 Nick Castellanos OF Det -8 8
17 Francisco Lindor SS Cle 3 20
18 Jorge Soler OF CHC 8 26
19 Clint Frazier OF Cle 9 28
20 Joc Pederson OF LAD 25 45
21 Corey Seager SS LAD 40 61
22 Rougned Odor 2B Tex 91 113
23 Albert Almora OF CHC 2 25
24 Jose Dariel Abreu 1B FA 126 150
25 Noah Syndergaard SP NYM 13 38
26 Jackie Bradley OF Bos -7 19
27 Kevin Gausman SP Bal -6 21
28 Mark Appel SP Hou 6 34
29 Jameson Taillon SP Pit -6 23
30 Alen Hanson SS Pit 10 40
31 Maikel Franco 3B Phi 15 46
32 Austin Meadows OF Pit 31 63
33 Raul (Adalberto) Mondesi SS KC 27 60
34 Henry Owens SP Bos 21 55
35 Lucas Giolito SP Was 1 36
36 Robert Stephenson SP Cin 15 51
37 Kyle Zimmer SP KC 35 72
38 Trea Turner SS College 20 58
39 Tyler Glasnow SP Pit 17 56
40 Carlos Martinez (Matias) SP StL 14 54
41 Yordano Ventura SP KC 35 76
42 Kyle Crick SP SF -5 37
43 Alfredo Despaigne OF Cuba 14 57
44 Andrew Heaney SP Mia 40 84
45 Garin Cecchini 3B Bos -16 29
46 C.J. (Carl) Edwards SP CHC 71 117
47 Trevor Bauer SP Cle -25 22
48 Micah Johnson 2B CHW 53 101
49 Delino DeShields 2B Hou -19 30
50 Rosell Herrera SS Col 57 107
51 Phillip Ervin OF Cin NA NR
52 J.P. (John Paul) Crawford SS Phi NA NR
53 Josh Bell OF Pit 9 62
54 David Dahl OF Col -27 27
55 Rymer Liriano OF SD 14 69
56 Wilmer Flores 2B NYM 53 109
57 Kolten Wong 2B StL -13 44
58 Matthew Davidson 3B Ari -9 49
59 Jonathan Singleton 1B Hou -20 39
60 Max Fried SP SD -10 50
61 Aaron Sanchez SP Tor -8 53
62 Matt Barnes SP Bos 20 82
63 Dylan Bundy SP Bal 41 104
64 Lance McCullers SP Hou 21 85
65 Cesar Puello OF NYM 0 65
66 Jorge Bonifacio OF KC 7 73
67 Jake Marisnick OF Mia -3 64
68 Allen Webster SP Bos -35 33
69 Alex Meyer SP Min 11 80
70 Mike Foltynewicz SP Hou 36 106
71 Julio Urias SP LAD 26 97
72 Luis Heredia SP Pit -1 71
73 Kohl Stewart SP Min 19 92
74 Jose Peraza SS Atl 37 111
75 Travis Jankowski OF SD 25 100
76 Arismendy Alcantara SS CHC -10 66
77 Michael Taylor OF Was NA NR
78 Marcus Semien SS CHW NA NR
79 Reymond Fuentes OF SD 47 126
80 Dominic Smith 1B NYM 11 91
81 Hunter Renfroe OF SD 8 89
82 Hunter Dozier SS KC NA NR
83 D.J. Peterson 3B Sea 5 88
84 Colin Moran 3B Mia 6 90
85 Bruce Rondon RP Det -2 83
86 Danny Hultzen SP Sea -43 43
87 Josh Fields RP Hou NA NR
88 Tyler (Chris) Austin OF NYY -21 67
89 Brian Goodwin OF Was -21 68
90 A.J. Cole SP Was -9 81
91 Lucas Sims SP Atl -21 70
92 Luke Jackson SP Tex 37 129
93 Matt Wisler SP SD NA NR
94 Edwin Escobar SP SF 38 132
95 Travis D'Arnaud C NYM -8 87
96 Michael Choice OF Oak -1 95
97 Chris Owings SS Ari NA NR
98 Jonathan Schoop 2B Bal 12 110
99 Eddie Rosario 2B Min 0 99
100 Mookie Betts 2B Bos NA NR
101 D.J. Davis OF Tor -8 93
102 Roman Quinn SS Phi -60 42
103 Andrew Toles OF TB 42 145
104 Luis Sardinas SS Tex 8 112
105 Jose Ramirez 2B Cle NA NR
106 Jake Odorizzi SP TB -20 86
107 Erik Johnson SP CHW NA NR
108 Zach Lee SP LAD 8 116
109 Jesse Winker OF Cin 9 118
110 Domingo Santana OF Hou 9 119
111 Bubba (Derek) Starling OF KC 9 120
112 Mike Olt 3B CHC -64 48
113 Jesse Biddle SP Phi -35 78
114 Lewis Brinson OF Tex 7 121
115 Nick Williams OF Tex NA NR
116 Ronald Guzman OF Tex -11 105
117 Joey Gallo 3B Tex 5 122
118 Nomar Mazara OF Tex 6 124
119 Rafael Montero SP NYM 12 131
120 Miguel Almonte SP KC 13 133
121 Nick Kingham SP Pit NA NR
122 Hunter Harvey SP Bal NA NR
123 Chris Anderson SP LAD NA NR
124 Adalberto Mejia SP SF NA NR
125 Jorge Alfaro C Tex NA NR
126 Gary Sanchez C NYY -28 98
127 Jace Peterson SS SD NA NR
128 Mallex Smith OF SD NA NR
129 Hak Ju Lee SS TB -2 127
130 Max Kepler OF Min -34 96
131 Trayce Thompson OF CHW -37 94
132 Kaleb Cowart 3B LAA -30 102
133 Franklin Barreto SS Tor NA NR
134 Dorssys Paulino SS Cle -9 125
135 Austin Hedges C SD 4 139
136 Anthony Ranaudo SP Bos NA NR
137 James Paxton SP Sea NA NR
138 Jimmy Nelson SP Mil NA NR
139 Burch Smith SP SD NA NR
140 Marcus Stroman SP Tor 4 144
141 Clayton Blackburn SP SF NA NR
142 Eduardo Rodriguez SP Bal NA NR
143 Dan Vogelbach 1B CHC -6 137
144 Greg Bird 1B NYY NA NR
145 Ji-Man Choi 1B Sea NA NR
146 Brian Flynn SP Mia NA NR
147 Casey Kelly SP SD 0 147
148 Taylor Guerrieri SP TB -96 52
149 Jonathan Gray SP Col 0 149
150 Kenta Maeda SP Japan NA NR

Players that dropped off because of ineligibility (14):
Y Puig (#2), W Myers (#7), G Cole (#10), Z Wheeler (#11), C Yelich (#15), B Miller (#31), M Zunino (#32), M Wacha (#41), A Eaton (#47), J Villar (#74), K Gibson (#75), D Salazar (#77), J Cosart (#79), S Gray (#115)

Eligibles that dropped off (13):
M Williams (#103), J Campos (#114), C Hawkins (#123), R Nunez (#128), R DePaula (#130), J Berrios (#134), J Nicolino (#135), R Ray (#136), N Delmonico (#138), B Brentz (#140), T Story (#141), S Heathcott (#142), M Szczur (#143), B Shipley (#148)

New additions (27):
P Ervin, JP Crawford, M Semien, H Dozier, J Fields, M Wisler, C Owings, M Betts, J Ramirez, E Johnson, N Williams, N Kingham, H Harvey, C Anderson, A Mejia, J Alfaro (back on), J Peterson (back on), M Smith, F Barreto, A Ranaudo (back on), J Paxton (back on), J Nelson (back on, I think), B Smith, C Blackburn (back on), G Bird, J Choi, B Flynn, K Maeda

As always, comments are not only welcome but encouraged. Enjoy!

[james33]

Another great and interesting list, rhd!

1) A minor point - something happened with your spreadsheet's +/- toward the bottom of the list, e.g., 143 Dan Vogelbach 1B CHC 28 137

2) Love how bold you are with Ervin. I drafted him in the reserve round of one league before the MLB amateur draft, and have been really happy with his production and was wondering how high you'd have him.

3) I respectfully disagree with the A.J. Cole drop - after some gopheritis problems early in the year, he righted himself, got promoted to AA, and did 49 K / 10 BB / 3 HR in 45 IP there.

4) the news of Cuba allowing its players to play overseas professionally - did this news come too late to affect your rankings? I don't have any knowledge of Cuban players, but was surprised to see just one on your list; I figured they have more talent than that, and now the likelihood of Cuban players coming to the U.S. just jumped significantly.

5) Josh Bell (Pit) - how does his HR potential compare to others ranked above him? I'm not suggesting you have him ranked too low; just curious. As a Josh Bell owner and sucker for the theory that 2Bs become HRs, I love his 37 2B in 459 AB to go with his 13 HR.

[gcstomp]

Great list rhd, look forward to really digging in. My one issue, which is a compliment to you, is that my league mates use your rankings above all others, Sickels eat your heart out, BA, BP, whatever, nothing is so predictably ingrained than our 1st couple of rds of farm draft being a reciting of your scripture in order.

[rhd]

Another great and interesting list, rhd!

1) A minor point - something happened with your spreadsheet's +/- toward the bottom of the list, e.g., 143 Dan Vogelbach 1B CHC 28 137

2) Love how bold you are with Ervin. I drafted him in the reserve round of one league before the MLB amateur draft, and have been really happy with his production and was wondering how high you'd have him.

3) I respectfully disagree with the A.J. Cole drop - after some gopheritis problems early in the year, he righted himself, got promoted to AA, and did 49 K / 10 BB / 3 HR in 45 IP there.

4) the news of Cuba allowing its players to play overseas professionally - did this news come too late to affect your rankings? I don't have any knowledge of Cuban players, but was surprised to see just one on your list; I figured they have more talent than that, and now the likelihood of Cuban players coming to the U.S. just jumped significantly.

5) Josh Bell (Pit) - how does his HR potential compare to others ranked above him? I'm not suggesting you have him ranked too low; just curious. As a Josh Bell owner and sucker for the theory that 2Bs become HRs, I love his 37 2B in 459 AB to go with his 13 HR.

Thanx as always for the props, James.

1) Thanx for pointing out the error. Should be fixed now.

2) I already had Ervin ranked high before seeing BA's rankings, so they sorta confirmed my own ranking of him. Someone commented on Ervin on my last list (you?). Could be a good power-speed guy, altho BA's rpt says his speed is just slightly above-avg, but it also says he has good SB skills.

3) To me, Cole didnt really drop. There's very little diff between #81 and #90, so he just maintained his ranking. He did have a solid year moving up a minor league level. This list is maybe the farthest away from BA's list of any of my lists because I havent yet seen any recent scouting rpts on any of the players (besides the short-season lists). I'm curious to see what BA says about him in the next week.

4) I think that Cuban players may be less likely to jump to the US now. That was the intent behind this change. We wont know until we see what happens. The money they'll get playing in Mexico will be peanuts to what the best of them could get in the US, so maybe it will have no effect. Then again, we'll be able to scout these players much better now, so overall I think it is a win-win.

5) Bell's always supposed to have had plus-plus power potential. He's been a much maligned guy, so I think I ranked him pretty aggressively. He's another one that I'm curious to see where BA ranks.

[rhd]

Great list rhd, look forward to really digging in. My one issue, which is a compliment to you, is that my league mates use your rankings above all others, Sickels eat your heart out, BA, BP, whatever, nothing is so predictably ingrained than our 1st couple of rds of farm draft being a reciting of your scripture in order.

Wow, that might be the most flattering compliment I've ever gotten. Thanx, gcstomp!

[rhd]

BTW, thanx to whoever replaced the old sticky thread w this new one. (Jason? Revo?)

[onejayhawk]

Wow, that might be the most flattering compliment I've ever gotten. Thanx, gcstomp!

The players that are available and on your list make their way onto my team. I won that league.

J

[rhd]

The players that are available and on your list make their way onto my team. I won that league.

J

Maybe I should make the list subscription-only

Thanx for the endorsement, onejayhawk. (How come I didnt win any of my leagues?)

[onejayhawk]

Maybe I should make the list subscription-only

Thanx for the endorsement, onejayhawk. (How come I didnt win any of my leagues?)

The other players read your book (George C Scott reference)

J

[Judge Jude]

I own in NL-only

15 Greg Polanco OF Pit -1 14
35 Lucas Giolito SP Was 1 36
53 Josh Bell OF Pit 9 62
80 Dominic Smith 1B NYM 11 91

so of course I think Smith is your worst call!

Did Mets overdo it to get a "signable" guy?

also, if you had a top 1,500 list (wait, you might!), would my Jed Bradley and Donavan Tate make the list?
15,000?

[rhd]

I own in NL-only

15 Greg Polanco OF Pit -1 14
35 Lucas Giolito SP Was 1 36
53 Josh Bell OF Pit 9 62
80 Dominic Smith 1B NYM 11 91

so of course I think Smith is your worst call!

Did Mets overdo it to get a "signable" guy?

also, if you had a top 1,500 list (wait, you might!), would my Jed Bradley and Donavan Tate make the list?
15,000?

I keep over 1000 players on my list, but I rank only the first 600. Tate and Bradley are on the list but not in the top 600, w Bradley near the bottom. This is the age-23 season for both so that's why they're still on. Age 24 or so is when I start deleting guys if they dont appear to be going anywhere.

[Hornsby]

Curious as to why you rank Gray so low...is it pitching in Colorado? Sickles end of season update had him 16th overall...

[rhd]

Curious as to why you rank Gray so low...is it pitching in Colorado? Sickles end of season update had him 16th overall...

Thanx for your reply, Hornsby.

Yes, I HATE Rockies' starters, but for someone as good as Gray I want to put him somewhere on the list, so he goes at the back. See today, that Eddie Butler is the BA #1 Sally League prospect, I maybe should have him on the list, too.

[Judge Jude]

not sure that 19 AB is big enough to qualify as "small sample size."
he was 7 for 19 with 2 doubles and a 148 OPS+, but one more out would have moved that meter a bit.

if you mean 13 for 14 in SBs, it's interesting that the only C who threw him out is a Mets non-prospect who may never taste the bigs again. there was an interesting convo on HQ about how some uber-steals guys initially have BETTER SB/CS rates in the majors.

we still don't know if he can hit in the bigs, and if he seems likely to make the Reds roster, Yadier Molina for one will have seen miles of video before Opening Day, I suspect.

[Judge Jude]

13 for 14 SB suggests to me that "sell high" beats "buy low" on this stock, especially with the tiny hitting sample in Hamilton's favor.

very interesting player, but I remain skeptical that he can hit big league pitching. Still, I'd HOLD if I owned him, probably. high upside of course.....