The ISIS Speech

[Bob Kohm]

Grade I high genechtagahzoink sprain. Hurts like hell.

[TranaGreg]

...and would you be depopulating the region with enhanced radiation nuclear bombs, biological weapons or chemical weapons, Greg? Stabilizing the region to the point of being able to defend super-high value and extremely vulnerable fixed infrastructure spreading over basically the entire region is going to be quite an undertaking

yes, it would be quite an undertaking, probably comparable to full backing of solar/wind/tidal/nuclear & even coal powerplants, etc.

having said that I like your solution better.

[chancellor]

Grade I high genechtagahzoink sprain. Hurts like hell.

LOL. And I know the emotional pain is probably worse than the physical.

I certainly agree with your path toward energy independence. And unless my memory entirely fails me, we've had that discussion before with me pushing for a Manhatten project type effort to get there. Our lack of pursuance of nuclear power - and, to be fair, not just in this administration, but in three before it as well - borders on criminal. Judas friggin' Priest, if the French can generate 70+% of their electrical needs safely with nuclear power, we most assuredly can.

[Judge Jude]

Have said it before, am always fascinated by Bob K's foreign relations analysis. He's definitely spent a lot of time researching and analyzing that stuff.

[Lucky]

We may have an answer without bumping up nuclear production or relying upon Middle East oil reserves. OPEC's reserves may be grossly overstated. Conversely, we have our own hydrocarbon resources right here, waiting to be tapped. Not those nasty Canadian oil sands, but tight gas and tight oil formations right here in the U.S. Natural gas from shale formations has increased markedly as a percentage of our needs. And there are zillions of MCF there. The price of gas is so low right now, that most operators are holding off completing or are temporarily shutting in their wells. Likewise, there are massive oil reserves in these tight shale formations as well.

It is true that hydraulic fracturing has drawn a lot of fire from environmental groups, but there are technologies other than fracking which show promise if we ever decide to open the valves and produce closer to our capability.

[In the Corn]

Almost 30 days from the speech and the start of airstrikes...doesn't seem like we've accomplished much.

ISIS sitting on the border of Turkey. Turkey's tanks staring at the enemy. Civil unrest in Turkey...anyone see this as the real trigger point?

[Bob Kohm]

The airstrikes are a joke as they inevitably had to be as they were constituted-- we're blowing up the odd pickup truck after taking out the few viable strategic targets-- ISIS controlled oil wells & refineries. The Turks are doing their usual "Look at us, we're more French than France!" kabuki, first entirely refusing the US & allies use of Incirlik and other NATO facilities and then standing by watching ISIS take Kobani with their tanks laagered at the border. I'm not int he least surprised-- Turkey is balancing between defending itself from ISIS and emboldening the Kurds, elements of who have been working toward the fall of the Turkish government for decades now. Turkey's stated rice for puttign their Army intot he war is taking out Assad as well; the unstated price is reining our Kurdish allies.

At some point we need to cut bait with the Turks and throw in with the Iranians if we want to stop ISIS without US ground commitments. These guys picking themselves up off of the carpet and takng Kobani is a very bad sign and could well portend an "Arab Fall", with the ISIS movement spreading to Jordan in the coming few weeks. If we're going to put the brakes on that we need to start working with Iran now or suck it up and give Turkey the green light at the expense (yet again) of the Kurds, whom we've screwed over so badly before. It's a shame as they're likely the only honest players in the entire Middle East.

[chancellor]

If we're going to put the brakes on that we need to start working with Iran now or suck it up and give Turkey the green light at the expense (yet again) of the Kurds, whom we've screwed over so badly before. It's a shame as they're likely the only honest players in the entire Middle East.

Our abject cowardice in being unwilling to arm the Kurds is the blackest stain of this whole bumbling affair by the present administration. We should have cut bait with the Turks immediately upon the refusal of use of Incirlik.

[The Feral Slasher]

Our abject cowardice in being unwilling to arm the Kurds is the blackest stain of this whole bumbling affair by the present administration..

Maybe they should dress up like "moderate" Syrians ?

[chancellor]

Maybe they should dress up like "moderate" Syrians ?

LOL...yeah, good point.

[In the Corn]

Hmm, seems to me that exactly what was promised has so far been delivered. Odd that you think differently.....but I can guess why.

Please do tell, why do you think I think differently. You must think I am some rabid-neo-con. I think you'd be surprised at how opposite of that, I truly am.

[TranaGreg]

Stratfor has an excellent breakdown of the situation with an overview of all the key players & their interests - you need the equivalent of a draft day cheat sheet to keep track tho.

[onejayhawk]

I was thinking about this thread in the context of the Leon Panetta interview. I am reminded of an old joke where a mathematician is confronted with a trashcan fire. He hooks a hose to the facet and declares the solution complete.

J

[onejayhawk]

CIA study indicates that arming and training rebel groups rarely works: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/us...s&emc=rss&_r=1

Counter examples Cuba and Vietnam. The Soviets had good success.

J

[The Feral Slasher]

CIA study indicates that arming and training rebel groups rarely works: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/us...s&emc=rss&_r=1

I wonder how anyone can have any confidence in our foreign policy given what has happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria

"Although Mr. Obama originally intended the C.I.A. to arm and train the rebels to fight the Syrian military, the focus of the American programs has shifted to training the rebel forces to fight the Islamic State, an enemy of Mr. Assad."

Let's go ahead and mock Ron Paul and the isolationists, even though every intervention we've had in the last 20 years has been a miserable failure, with unforeseen consequences. We're not really sure what side we will be on next year, but we've got to do something, we're America dammit !