Russian troops in the Crimera?

[Fresno Bob]

I've heard 700, I've heard 2000 troops. Wooden shields and trebuchets aren't going to hold them off.

[ironfist]

It looks to me like Putin is trying to make Crimea into the next South Ossetia or Transnistria. A sneaky way to effectively annex a foreign territory. From there he can continue to destabilize Ukraine until he either gets the Eastern portion of the country or a new puppet leader arises.

[chancellor]

I'm shocked that Putin would perceive NATO lacks the will to stop him from such a brazen land grab. Shocked.

[Don Quixote]

I'm shocked that Putin would perceive NATO lacks the will to stop him from such a brazen land grab. Shocked.

It's a great way for him to get either an area that Russia grudgingly allowed Ukraine to have at the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, or concessions from Ukraine and/or the weak-willed West, including the very weak-willed "leader of the free world". Look for lots of words of condemnation and "diplomatic initiatives", none of which will impress Putin in the least, then some serious talk centering around what political giveaways it will take for him to withdraw his military.

[ironfist]

It's a great way for him to get either an area that Russia grudgingly allowed Ukraine to have at the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, or concessions from Ukraine and/or the weak-willed West, including the very weak-willed "leader of the free world". Look for lots of words of condemnation and "diplomatic initiatives", none of which will impress Putin in the least, then some serious talk centering around what political giveaways it will take for him to withdraw his military.

A complete betrayal of the terms of the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994 that guaranteed that Ukraine's territorial integrity would be preserved. If we can't honor our treaties, then who can trust any agreements we make?

[chancellor]

A complete betrayal of the terms of the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994 that guaranteed that Ukraine's territorial integrity would be preserved. If we can't honor our treaties, then who can trust any agreements we make?

Reminds me of one my favorite lines from Animal House....

Nor should this have surprised anyone. Russia waited France and Britain out in the 1860s after the Crimean War, and gained access to the Black Sea and Sevastopol, even though they were banned by treaty in 1856. They waited us and the UK out after the Budapest Memorandum, and will retake the Crimea and consolidate their hold on Sevastopol. In both cases, it was due to key parties losing the will to enforce the treaties.

[Bob Kohm]

Kind of a lot of drivel, Chance, Ironfist and La Mancha. An unenforceable treaty is an unenforceable treaty; this one was signed in an era when some thought that everyone from Minsk to Almaty was going to sign up for NATO. How, pray tell, would the gallery like it enforced? Military action in a theater where the Russians have massively superior weight and short internal supply lines? Economic sanctions against the country that has most of Western Europe suckling at the Gazprom teat? What? How about we all come to the realization that Russian antics are relatively meaningless, that they could put ten Black Sea fleets in Sebastopol and still not be able to get a ship into the Med, that the Crimea hasn't been strategically relevant to the West since the Light Brigade and not so much then or that Ukraine is at best a booby prize with a wrecked economy, a population barely viable educationally or economically in the 21st Century and that only when they are sober?

The move here in response to Russia is to lift some restrictions on arms sales to Taiwan and rework the terms of the Filipino F-16 acquisition to pay for the conversion and upkeep of the retired USAF airframes they want. We should also sell the Japanese two or three of the Ticonderoga cruisers sitting in mothballs at Puget Sound upgraded with VLS launchers. The message is, of ocurse, directed at Beijing-- we are an Asian power. The Russians can play whatever sandbox games they like in strategically useless locales liek Ukraine, but you guys need to remember that we give a damn about the Senkakus, Spratlys etc, not just the Filipinos. That's how power is exercised wisely here, imo.

[chancellor]

An unenforceable treaty is an unenforceable treaty; this one was signed in an era when some thought that everyone from Minsk to Almaty was going to sign up for NATO. How, pray tell, would the gallery like it enforced?

Uh, dude, that's just what I was saying. And the Russians knew it when they signed the deal. Wait a while, and there's no will to enforce it. Even if there was, there's not a good solution.

Your second paragraph point is an interesting one. Paul Rahe makes the same point vis a vis Russia here: http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Vladim...-Greatest-Fool

[ironfist]

Kind of a lot of drivel, Chance, Ironfist and La Mancha. An unenforceable treaty is an unenforceable treaty; this one was signed in an era when some thought that everyone from Minsk to Almaty was going to sign up for NATO. How, pray tell, would the gallery like it enforced? Military action in a theater where the Russians have massively superior weight and short internal supply lines? Economic sanctions against the country that has most of Western Europe suckling at the Gazprom teat? What? How about we all come to the realization that Russian antics are relatively meaningless, that they could put ten Black Sea fleets in Sebastopol and still not be able to get a ship into the Med, that the Crimea hasn't been strategically relevant to the West since the Light Brigade and not so much then or that Ukraine is at best a booby prize with a wrecked economy, a population barely viable educationally or economically in the 21st Century and that only when they are sober?

The move here in response to Russia is to lift some restrictions on arms sales to Taiwan and rework the terms of the Filipino F-16 acquisition to pay for the conversion and upkeep of the retired USAF airframes they want. We should also sell the Japanese two or three of the Ticonderoga cruisers sitting in mothballs at Puget Sound upgraded with VLS launchers. The message is, of ocurse, directed at Beijing-- we are an Asian power. The Russians can play whatever sandbox games they like in strategically useless locales liek Ukraine, but you guys need to remember that we give a damn about the Senkakus, Spratlys etc, not just the Filipinos. That's how power is exercised wisely here, imo.

Really appreciate the moronic bigoted remarks about my family in Ukraine, Bob.

[Bob Kohm]

One of the highest rates of alcoholism in the world, unfortunately. During the 70s drunkenness in the workplace was so bad an issue that Moscow moved a ton of ship and aircraft building out of the Ukraine due largely to the insanely bad workmanship of drunken Ukrainians. Alcohol is a major limiting factor in Ukraine's ability to be competitive.

[ironfist]

So is Ukraine within their rights to start a nuclear arms program? Because everyone is so dependent on Russia then they have carte Blanche to invade and annex any foreign territory? What kind of message does this send? Maybe China will now take whatever islands its been salivating over for years now? How about Taiwan? Why not? Who will stop them? All agreements with US are now subject to our whim, right? How can we pressure any other country to give up nuclear arms? And what about Obamas tough talk? What about the so-called costs? If we don't act somehow, we look like fools... And worse weak fools.

I'm not advocating for a war, mind you, but something has to be done. Real penalties not a boycott of the G8 summit. As if Putin cares.

[gungy 2]

How do you suggest we deal with an impotent UN ? - Russia has a seat on the security council how would you convince them to support sanctions against their own - or a UN force tear assing around the Crimea ?
Do you believe the US should disregard our treaty agreements and act unilaterally?
Just what in the hell do you believe we should or can do?

[Bob Kohm]

So is Ukraine within their rights to start a nuclear arms program? Because everyone is so dependent on Russia then they have carte Blanche to invade and annex any foreign territory? What kind of message does this send? Maybe China will now take whatever islands its been salivating over for years now? How about Taiwan? Why not? Who will stop them? All agreements with US are now subject to our whim, right? How can we pressure any other country to give up nuclear arms? And what about Obamas tough talk? What about the so-called costs? If we don't act somehow, we look like fools... And worse weak fools.

I'm not advocating for a war, mind you, but something has to be done. Real penalties not a boycott of the G8 summit. As if Putin cares.

There's nothing to do and nothing in Ukraine worth doing it for, to be perfectly honest. The country makes Albania look prosperous and efficient, the eastern zone of the country was repopulated with emigrant Russians in the 1920s who want to be aligned with Russia. Should we forcibly make them stay Ukranian or allow them to self determine their nationality in the first place?

Ukraine had the world's third or fifth largest stockpile of nukes (depending on source) and gave them up, a widely lauded but incredibly foolish decision-- at the very least they should gave been given massive long term foreign investment in return but didn't bother to negotiate for it effectively. Are they within their rights to try to come up with a new nuclear deterrent? If they want the western part of the country invaded tomorrow, sure, give it a go.

As I said in my first post, thye US should use this as a teachable moment for Beijing by pushing through an arms sale to Taiwan (F-35s or AEGIS/SM3 ABM tech, anyone?) and sending a CBG through the South China Sea. The difference between a few shoals and piles of rocks in the South China Sea/WESTPAC and Ukraine? Teh shoals and rocks are more strategically important to the US. The Ukranians, by virtue of strategic geography and economic backwardness, are pretty much on their own. Maybe the GErmans will lend them a hand, but in temrs of Crimea? Done deal as it probably should be. It's a Russian province.

[ironfist]

I know you are telling it the way Washington sees it and probably the realistic outcome. However the whole thing makes me sad and I still think it's wrong the way Ukraine was duped and no one cares. I am not the least sympathetic about poor ethnic Russians in the east who want to be aligned with Russia. It was Russia who made it so through genocide, harsh Russification programs and deporting the population and now they're being rewarded for it. Hopefully Ukraine finds some oil in its territory and someone will care about them someday.

[nullnor]

Ukraine has elections, get's a more pro but less corrupt russian government, and Crimea stays a part of Ukraine. Russia ends up looking like peacekeepers while getting everything they want.

i do wonder why the head of Ukraine's navy was on a training mission with NATO before he just defected with the flagship.