Presidential race: Close or Not?

[onejayhawk]

That's hysterical. Virginia is the home of "TransVaginal McDonnell" and if you think that the voting gap in women will be an issue elsewhere in the country, then welcome to Viriginia. Safe blue. You may have heard about the elderly living in Florida, and all of those nice non-Miami Cuban Hispanics mid state? Safe blue. Wisconsin? They have an auto industry there? Ryan doesn't deliver his home state. I think that Jason actually missed North Carolina, for the record-- shaky for Obama, but the Hispanics put him over there, too. Heck, I think it stays red this cycle but does Romney's weak number in Georgia just scare the living crap out of you? It should, as it's the same trajectory that Virginia has ridden and that Texas & Arizona are on over the next three cycles.

For all the past talk about the GOP being a regional party... well, I think we are actually finally getting there.

I am just going on pollling that has it a dead heat, McDonnell or no McDonnell.

Flip Florida and Pennsylvania and it's still 274-264 for the incumbent

To flip Pennsylvania you need to flip Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire first, not even checking the western states.

National polling shows a 2%-3% convention bounce for President Obama vs 7-10 days ago.

Debates could be very important in this election. Romney has not stood out as a debator, so you have to like the Presidents chances. OTOH, gas prices continue to rise after a pull back in the spring.

J

[B-Fly]

As much as I fear complacency, I'm finding it hard to see how Romney wins this. I think at best Romney poaches NC, IN, FL, VA and NV from Obama's 2008 states, which still leaves him a 284-254 loser. Even if he gets CO, too, which I don't see happening, then he's still a 275-263 loser. I just don't see OH, WI, IA or NH as winnable for Romney.

[DJBeasties]

My prediction

What's the website where you can select who is going to win each state?

[onejayhawk]

What's the website where you can select who is going to win each state?

https://www.270towin.com

J

[onejayhawk]

As much as I fear complacency, I'm finding it hard to see how Romney wins this. I think at best Romney poaches NC, IN, FL, VA and NV from Obama's 2008 states, which still leaves him a 284-254 loser. Even if he gets CO, too, which I don't see happening, then he's still a 275-263 loser. I just don't see OH, WI, IA or NH as winnable for Romney.

Wisconsin is surprisingly in play, contrary to long history. Ohio is the Bell Cow IMO. Whomever wins Ohio wins the election. All other states are less evenly divided.

Betting odds are about 2-1 that Obama gets re-elected at this point. Romney needs a full point or so in the baseline numbers between now and November. But a point or a bit more would be enough. In 2008 we saw a move of about 5 points from date to election.

J

[DJBeasties]

Thanks J!

[DJBeasties]

So last night I had my wife (3rd grade teacher) fill out the map on the battleground states and she had Obama winning with 295 electoral votes.

Then we did it from scratch without the red or blue states filled in and suddenly she had Obama with 322 electoral votes. Haha what a bias woman. I wonder who she is voting for.

[B-Fly]

So last night I had my wife (3rd grade teacher) fill out the map on the battleground states and she had Obama winning with 295 electoral votes.

Then we did it from scratch without the red or blue states filled in and suddenly she had Obama with 322 electoral votes. Haha what a bias woman. I wonder who she is voting for.

She obviously has better taste in Presidential Candidates than in men.

[DJBeasties]

She obviously has better taste in Presidential Candidates than in men.

HA! I would sweep the electoral with her!