Presidential race: Close or Not?

[onejayhawk]

Since Bob is doing polls, here is one more.

Will the Presidential race be close, convincing or blow out?

J

[Moonlight J]

this is why it won't be close

There will be at least a 60 electoral gap vote in the end

[Moonlight J]

My prediction

[onejayhawk]

Flip Florida and you will get a lot of company. I might add Virginia and maybe Wisconsin.

J

[Bob Kohm]

Flip Florida and you will get a lot of company. I might add Virginia and maybe Wisconsin.

J

That's hysterical. Virginia is the home of "TransVaginal McDonnell" and if you think that the voting gap in women will be an issue elsewhere in the country, then welcome to Viriginia. Safe blue. You may have heard about the elderly living in Florida, and all of those nice non-Miami Cuban Hispanics mid state? Safe blue. Wisconsin? They have an auto industry there? Ryan doesn't deliver his home state. I think that Jason actually missed North Carolina, for the record-- shaky for Obama, but the Hispanics put him over there, too. Heck, I think it stays red this cycle but does Romney's weak number in Georgia just scare the living crap out of you? It should, as it's the same trajectory that Virginia has ridden and that Texas & Arizona are on over the next three cycles.

For all the past talk about the GOP being a regional party... well, I think we are actually finally getting there.

[Moonlight J]

Flip Florida and you will get a lot of company. I might add Virginia and maybe Wisconsin.

J

Flip Florida and Pennsylvania and it's still 274-264 for the incumbent

[Moonlight J]

That's hysterical. Virginia is the home of "TransVaginal McDonnell" and if you think that the voting gap in women will be an issue elsewhere in the country, then welcome to Viriginia. Safe blue. You may have heard about the elderly living in Florida, and all of those nice non-Miami Cuban Hispanics mid state? Safe blue. Wisconsin? They have an auto industry there? Ryan doesn't deliver his home state. I think that Jason actually missed North Carolina, for the record-- shaky for Obama, but the Hispanics put him over there, too. Heck, I think it stays red this cycle but does Romney's weak number in Georgia just scare the living crap out of you? It should, as it's the same trajectory that Virginia has ridden and that Texas & Arizona are on over the next three cycles.

For all the past talk about the GOP being a regional party... well, I think we are actually finally getting there.

I'm playing NC conservatively -- I'm rather confident in the rest of it

[senorsheep]

I still don't have much of a sense which way Colorado will swing. There's been a lot of speculation as to why Republicans have rolled back their advertising barrage here. Both sides have put their spin on it, with Republicans saying they've got it in the bag, and Democrats saying the opposite is true and they're pulling up stakes to battle in other swing states. Every local poll I've seen has shown Obama up 4-5 points, so if somebody really does have Colorado in the bag, I'd guess it's The Democrats.

[nots]

Silver has Georgia at 96% likely to go to Romney FWIW.
I think MJ is on the money with his map, though I think Florida may be winnable for Romney.
I think President Obama wins Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania fairly easily (4+ points).

[Bob Kohm]

You don't pull out of a contestable state in a close election when you have the monetary advantage if you think you can win it. You also don't pull out if you think you're way ahead but the outside polling is giving it convincingly to your opponent as perception will most assuredly become reality in that situation. Given the way the GOP has moved in that race, I cannot believe that Colorado is in play for Romney. Put it in the blue column at this point.

[Bob Kohm]

Silver has Georgia at 96% likely to go to Romney FWIW.
I think MJ is on the money with his map, though I think Florida may be winnable for Romney.
I think President Obama wins Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania fairly easily (4+ points).

Oh I agree that Georgia flipping this cycle would be a surprise. Next cycle? Not so much. 2020? No surprise, Given the growing voting blocs of Hispanics in Arizona & Texas, they're sitting one cycle back of Georgia.

[frae]

I don't see anyway PA shifts away from blue. There hasn't been but one poll since June that had the race under a 5 point gap and most have been in the 6-9 range.

I like Jason's map, but I wasn't sold on Florida and thought maybe Romney squeaks out one more of the purple states, Iowa maybe? So I put it at a 20-50 point win. Going into the conventions I was much more concerned about the possibility of a squeaker, but having watched them I just don't see Mitt closing the gap and getting Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Colorado, or NH.

[Moonlight J]

I cannot believe that Colorado is in play for Romney. Put it in the blue column at this point.

That's another one I leaned conservative on because I thought 323 was too strong

On a board where these bets are permissible, I bet a loudmouthed poster Obama gets at least 300 votes and the loser never posts again. Best part is, even other conservatives are now hoping I win

[senorsheep]

You don't pull out of a contestable state in a close election when you have the monetary advantage if you think you can win it. You also don't pull out if you think you're way ahead but the outside polling is giving it convincingly to your opponent as perception will most assuredly become reality in that situation. Given the way the GOP has moved in that race, I cannot believe that Colorado is in play for Romney. Put it in the blue column at this point.

State Republicans have stepped into two big cow pies the past couple of weeks, and I think both are gonna stick to their shoes. First, they launched a very clumsy and clearly partisan attempt to "clean up" the (Democrat) voter rolls, and completely cocked it up in every way imaginable, ultimately relenting to public pressure and dropping the entire effort. Second, they engaged in some sleazy tactics to undermine Amendment 64 - the Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol citizen ballot initiative. They used some procedural chicanery to remove the entire Pro argument from the Blue Book, a non-partisan voter guide which is supposed to provide citizens with Pro and Con arguments for the various initiatives. Colorado has a big, cranky independent voting bloc with a history of punishing this kind of shady maneuvering from either side, so if it is close, the local GOP may have just cost the national party the state.

[Moonlight J]

SS -- FL is doing the same thing down here at the request of the Governor himself and thankfully, appellate courts stopped it.