Romney picks his VP?

[B-Fly]

I think this was a tactical mistake by Romney. I think he had a better chance remaining a policy cloud with no one really sure how conservative or moderate he would actually govern, and by default turning this into a referendum on the incumbent at a time when the voting public is unhappy with the economy. Picking Ryan creates a greater likelihood of turning this election into a referendum on GOP/conservative economic ideology -- slash services and slash taxes. Sure, the latter has intuitive appeal to many, although the cut-taxes-for-the-ultra-rich triggers many voters sense of inequity and a stacked deck against working stiffs. And slashing government services has intuitive appeal for those who don't rely on such services, but a much, much bigger life-altering and vote-rallying impact on those who do rely on or anticipate relying on such services, which is a huge group when you start talking social security, Medicare and Medicaid.

[DJBeasties]

Obama is going to crush Romney.

[onejayhawk]

Obama is going to crush Romney.

In the debate or in the election?

J

[DJBeasties]

In the debate or in the election?

J

I think the election. Its just my gut feeling. I just get that sense. I don't like either candidate all that much myself.

[cardboardbox]

I think this was a tactical mistake by Romney. I think he had a better chance remaining a policy cloud with no one really sure how conservative or moderate he would actually govern, and by default turning this into a referendum on the incumbent at a time when the voting public is unhappy with the economy. Picking Ryan creates a greater likelihood of turning this election into a referendum on GOP/conservative economic ideology -- slash services and slash taxes. Sure, the latter has intuitive appeal to many, although the cut-taxes-for-the-ultra-rich triggers many voters sense of inequity and a stacked deck against working stiffs. And slashing government services has intuitive appeal for those who don't rely on such services, but a much, much bigger life-altering and vote-rallying impact on those who do rely on or anticipate relying on such services, which is a huge group when you start talking social security, Medicare and Medicaid.

dont worry, we'll get back to the economy topic very soon. On election day, the #1 issue will be whether you feel good about Obama's economy.

[GTAXI]

I think the election. Its just my gut feeling. I just get that sense. I don't like either candidate all that much myself.

You could be right, but I feel just the opposite.

I don't sense the same enthusiasm with Obama that he had in 2008. Perhaps that will change in the next 3 months, but I don't see how.

Outside of newly registered voters, do you see him gaining more swing voters? With the state of the economy and the morale of this country as low as it has been in my lifetime. I can't see more people pulling the lever for Obama. He will have his base, but I don't think the turnout will be as high. I know of two Obama voters at my job who said they are not voting this year. They are disapointed in Obama, but cannot vote Elephant. I have to imagine there are many Obama supporters that feel the same way.

I also think he is facing a much better ticket than he was in 2008. McCain/Palin was probably as bad a ticket the Repulican's could have put out there. Romney/Ryan will do more to energy the base and independents.

I could be wrong, but this is how I feel.

[B-Fly]

You could be right, but I feel just the opposite.

I don't sense the same enthusiasm with Obama that he had in 2008. Perhaps that will change in the next 3 months, but I don't see how.

Outside of newly registered voters, do you see him gaining more swing voters? With the state of the economy and the morale of this country as low as it has been in my lifetime. I can't see more people pulling the lever for Obama. He will have his base, but I don't think the turnout will be as high. I know of two Obama voters at my job who said they are not voting this year. They are disapointed in Obama, but cannot vote Elephant. I have to imagine there are many Obama supporters that feel the same way.

I also think he is facing a much better ticket than he was in 2008. McCain/Palin was probably as bad a ticket the Repulican's could have put out there. Romney/Ryan will do more to energy the base and independents.

I could be wrong, but this is how I feel.

I don't think Obama has to gain more voters than he had in 2008, when he won in an electoral college landslide. He basically just needs to hold Florida or to hold Ohio +1 (e.g., Nevada) from among the legitimate swing states. (Pennsylvania is not a swing state.) I'm not "comfortable" as an Obama supporter, but I do think he's still a solid favorite when you look at the map and the polling.

[nullnor]

the more i read lately, Obama was more nasty with the GOP than ppl think.

[nullnor]

we need a middle class. however we can do it.

[onejayhawk]

I think the election. Its just my gut feeling. I just get that sense. I don't like either candidate all that much myself.

I get the volatility. I am not sure the direction. This is roughly where Reagan and Carter stood in 1980. Of course the economy was much worse then.

J

[Fresno Bob]

I've seen a couple of interviews on CNBC where small business owners pimped by the Ryan camp were interviewed about how excited they were for Ryan as the VP. To no surprise, they were all excited....I had to hand it to the CNBC talking heads, most of them got asked, "So, how is your business doing year to year, this year vs last?" and almost everyone of them said that their business was up, much of it coming from infrastructure work....

[nots]

I havent read through the analysis yet but how much does the choice of the vp change the mind of voters?

Is there anyone here (or even your friends) that now votes differently?

I like a lot of what Ryan stands for (though I loathe the tax cut non-sense). He is a very serious minded person, who fully believes his rhetoric. Outside of Christie or Huntsman, their isn't a Republican I feel better about.
Having said that, it doesn't change my feelings about Romney at all. I think Obama has been very mediocre, but Romney is a non-starter for me. A very solid VP pick does nothing to change that.
I don't think I'm alone in those views either.

[Judge Jude]

"And slashing government services has intuitive appeal for those who don't rely on such services, but a much, much bigger life-altering and vote-rallying impact on those who do rely on or anticipate relying on such services, which is a huge group when you start talking social security, Medicare and Medicaid."

I thought that at first - but isn't Obama either vulnerable on the debt because Obamacare will raise it further, or it won't raise it further because of all those cuts in future MediCare/Caid costs that's on paper there?

I never believed a word of those 'future cuts' in the Obamacare plan, but figured it mattered less before. But Ryan is a debt hawk (arguably to a huge fault), yet also supposedly a liability for being 'tough on [long ways in the future] seniors."

But I might be missing something there.

[swampdragon]

I like a lot of what Ryan stands for (though I loathe the tax cut non-sense). He is a very serious minded person, who fully believes his rhetoric. Outside of Christie or Huntsman, their isn't a Republican I feel better about.
Having said that, it doesn't change my feelings about Romney at all. I think Obama has been very mediocre, but Romney is a non-starter for me. A very solid VP pick does nothing to change that.
I don't think I'm alone in those views either.

thanks for clarifying explanation- would there have been a VP candidate that could change your view to vote for Romney?

[nots]

thanks for clarifying explanation- would there have been a VP candidate that could change your view to vote for Romney?

I am a huge Christie fan, but even he wouldn't have done it for me. I am glad he wasn't selected because I don't want to see him hurt his brand for 2016.
I am not in the tank for Obama at all--as I said before, he's been really mediocre on most issues IMO. The problem for me is the GOP primary field (save Huntsman) didn't have a guy I could get behind.