Electoral College Hopscotch: Make Your Best Scenario for Romney to Get to 270

[Bob Kohm]

A quick look at polling in swing states with Obama polling close but ahead in Michigan, Colorado, Ohio (trending towards a double digit lead), Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania makes this look like a heavy lift for Romney-- unless you invest heavily in Scott Rasmussen's polling, which is always heavily tilted to the right. There's very little chance that Michigan, Pennsylvania or Ohio will swing to Romney after his auto bailout policy debacle. Virginia is a bit up in the air, I'm honestly surprised to see Obama ahead at all in North Carolina, I think that Colorado and Nevada go to Obama while New Hampshire will go to Romney.

So, what's your GOP path to Electoral College victory in November?

[nots]

A quick look at polling in swing states with Obama polling close but ahead in Michigan, Colorado, Ohio (trending towards a double digit lead), Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania makes this look like a heavy lift for Romney-- unless you invest heavily in Scott Rasmussen's polling, which is always heavily tilted to the right. There's very little chance that Michigan, Pennsylvania or Ohio will swing to Romney after his auto bailout policy debacle. Virginia is a bit up in the air, I'm honestly surprised to see Obama ahead at all in North Carolina, I think that Colorado and Nevada go to Obama while New Hampshire will go to Romney.

So, what's your GOP path to Electoral College victory in November?

Just a side note:
Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) has some very interesting data on the polling so far this year. Currently, there are four polls with a greater GOP house effect than Rasmussen has displayed so far this cycle (ABC, Fox, Quinnipiac, Gallup). Additionally, there are 5 polls with a larger left lean than Rasmussen has to the right. The most 'unbiased' poll so far has been YouGov and CNN. These are based on the national numbers.
Rasmussen is usually the one everyone likes to bash on, but his accuracy is fairly strong so far.
To answer your question: I don't see Romney getting near 270 without a game changing event. I don't see Obama leading in Ohio by 10 points--what poll are you referencing?

[frae]

I am guessing the poll Bob is talking about is Quinnipiac. It was from the 19th - 25th of this month and has Obama up 47-38.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1767

[nots]

I am guessing the poll Bob is talking about is Quinnipiac. It was from the 19th - 25th of this month and has Obama up 47-38.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes...ReleaseID=1767

Thanks--I missed that. Try to keep up on these polls but that one got past me.
I blame it on my newborn.

[chancellor]

What would be really fun is if Romney can win Florida, Penn., NC, Wisconsin, and NH while Obama wins Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Michigan, with all others being the same as '08. I think that comes to 269-269.

[onejayhawk]

If you go to http://www.270towin.com/ there is an interactive map. Their battle ground states are:
New Hampshire
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Wisconsin
Florida
Iowa
Virginia
North Carolina
Colorado
Nevada

Allocate them as indicated. You might think that Florida decides the election again, but not so. Giving Florida to Romney makes a 269-269 tie. What if New Hampshire was the pivot state?

J

[Judge Jude]

I'm riding Nate Silver again after his performance in '08.

So... whatever he said.

[onejayhawk]

A quick look at polling in swing states with Obama polling close but ahead in Michigan, Colorado, Ohio (trending towards a double digit lead), Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania makes this look like a heavy lift for Romney-- unless you invest heavily in Scott Rasmussen's polling, which is always heavily tilted to the right. There's very little chance that Michigan, Pennsylvania or Ohio will swing to Romney after his auto bailout policy debacle. Virginia is a bit up in the air, I'm honestly surprised to see Obama ahead at all in North Carolina, I think that Colorado and Nevada go to Obama while New Hampshire will go to Romney.

So, what's your GOP path to Electoral College victory in November?

This would surprise me if the election is at all close. Both states have heavy LDS influence. Romney will have an army of volunteers for door to door and GotV.

J

[Pogues]

Romney wins OH, he wins the election. Not that I think that'll happen.