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2030 might be optimistic ... but it's in the ballpark. The question is how much they are prepared to risk. For the big agencies, it could only take 1 huge public relations disaster to make them run for cover. I think caution will overtake rhetoric when push comes to shove ... even for Space X. They will need to have a lot of infrastructure ready to deploy as a fall back to the myriad of potential problems that could emerge.
But then again, Elon Musk will be 60 years old in 2030. How long will he be prepared to wait? His visions for the future of Mars involve more than a first trip. How much will he be prepared to risk in order to push the game along? This is now a valid question in the era of private space enterprise.
The aggressive goals of the Chinese space program could be the best thing that happened recently. USA, EU and Russia won't want to be overshadowed by the Chinese, who I'm presuming won't have the same strictures as NASA for instance ... and just last week NASA and Russia announced a plan for a Lunar station, presumably as a response to China.
But then again, Elon Musk will be 60 years old in 2030. How long will he be prepared to wait? His visions for the future of Mars involve more than a first trip. How much will he be prepared to risk in order to push the game along? This is now a valid question in the era of private space enterprise.
The aggressive goals of the Chinese space program could be the best thing that happened recently. USA, EU and Russia won't want to be overshadowed by the Chinese, who I'm presuming won't have the same strictures as NASA for instance ... and just last week NASA and Russia announced a plan for a Lunar station, presumably as a response to China.
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