Obama reelection 2012

[nots]

At this point, the race can't even be calculated. There's still three critical issues that need to work themselves out before polling has any significance:

- Will Romney screw it up?
- Who will Romney choose as VP?
- Will Ron Paul go rogue and run an independent campaign?

All of those questions would seem to favor the President's reelection.
As I see it, Gov Romney has a pretty big electoral map problem. Flipping Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina might not be a major problem, but he's going to need to flip a couple of states that President Obama won by 10% last time. That's a pretty tall task.
But I would agree that the Obama-Romney polling right now is more for fun than having any real predictive value.

[onejayhawk]

At this point, the race can't even be calculated. There's still three critical issues that need to work themselves out before polling has any significance:

- Will Romney screw it up?
- Who will Romney choose as VP?
- Will Ron Paul go rogue and run an independent campaign?

To all of above, what does it matter?

Re-elections are about the incumbent much more than the opponent. You can assess the situation and say that the President is vulnerable, but not critically so. On that basisyou can say that things are too close to call a favorite.

All of those questions would seem to favor the President's reelection.
As I see it, Gov Romney has a pretty big electoral map problem. Flipping Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina might not be a major problem, but he's going to need to flip a couple of states that President Obama won by 10% last time. That's a pretty tall task.
But I would agree that the Obama-Romney polling right now is more for fun than having any real predictive value.

That is not how I would look at the map. There are three key areas: Atlantic coast, West, Great Lakes. The states that are in play are FL, NC, VA, NM, NV, CO, MI, OH. Some other states are also in play, NH, MO, but they dont fit the regions, and are smaller. Romney has real strength in the West. He could sweep those three easily. He has at least some strength in the Great Lakes, particularly Michigan. The real test will be the Atlantic Coast. If Obama can take Florida, North Carolina and Virginia he should win. To overcome that, Romney would need to filp Pennsylvania, which is unlikely in a close election.

From this point, Romney's job is to convince the nation that he is significantly more competent than Obama. If he manages that, he should win.

J

[onejayhawk]

How long until Iran is our next battlefield? Reports coming out of troops massing there and that the 50,000 currently stationed in the area (oh, sorry about the "you'll be home for Christmas" promise, eh?) will be joined by another 50,000 by March.

Let's pencil in another Nobel Peace Prize for Obama!

Irony from supporters. Gotta love it.

I might go back myself. That is not irony.

J

[nots]

To all of above, what does it matter?

If Obama can take Florida, North Carolina and Virginia he should win.

J

Should win? If he wins those three states, he'll finish with around 350 EVs

[onejayhawk]

I stopped being an Obama supporter quite some time ago.

If you are not prepared to vote for the other candidate, Romney here, or sit the election out, then you are a supporter.

It could be worse. You could be an athletic supporter.

Should win? If he wins those three states, he'll finish with around 350 EVs

Not hardly. Do you have him winning any of Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, Missori, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire?

[Bob Kohm]

How long until Iran is our next battlefield? Reports coming out of troops massing there and that the 50,000 currently stationed in the area (oh, sorry about the "you'll be home for Christmas" promise, eh?) will be joined by another 50,000 by March.

Can you document that? Curious that I haven't really seen anything about a new deployment equivalent to 3.5/4 divisions anywhere I can point to. Also, whose troops massing and where? I was int he middle of a speculative piece for a blog about an Iranian move into Syria this afternoon and haven't had time to look up.

[nots]

Not hardly. Do you have him winning any of Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, Missori, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire?

The President won Michigan by almost 20pts, Nevada by 14 or so, NM by double figures--those are pretty big margins to overcome.
McCain won Missouri, so Romney needs to win there just to not fall further behind in the electoral college. NH is certainly doable for Romney, though NHites loved McCain and he still didn't carry the state. Ohio is a very realistic pickup. Colorado was 9--I guess that would be easier than some of the others, but certainly not a gimmie.
Lot of things have to break his way in order to get to 270.

[Wonderboy]

The President won Michigan by almost 20pts, Nevada by 14 or so, NM by double figures--those are pretty big margins too overcome.
McCain won Missouri, so Romney needs to win there just to not fall further behind in the electoral college. NH is certainly doable for Romney, though NHites loved McCain and he still didn't carry the state. Ohio is a very realistic pickup. Colorado was 9--I guess that would be easier than some of the others, but certainly not a gimmie.
Lot of things have to break his way in order to get to 270.

I agree. It seems like lots of things have to break Romney's way, moreso than Obama. I don't think it is realistic to say Obama will carry all of Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire again, but it's equally unrealistic to think he is going to lose all of them.

[nots]

I agree. It seems like lots of things have to break Romney's way, moreso than Obama. I don't think it is realistic to say Obama will carry all of Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire again, but it's equally unrealistic to think he is going to lose all of them.

Just a small correction: though it was very close, McCain won Missouri in 2008.

[onejayhawk]

I agree. It seems like lots of things have to break Romney's way, moreso than Obama. I don't think it is realistic to say Obama will carry all of Nevada, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire again, but it's equally unrealistic to think he is going to lose all of them.

To the contrary, that is dstinctly possible. More likely, he might carry one or two.

J

[Frank]

Can you document that? Curious that I haven't really seen anything about a new deployment equivalent to 3.5/4 divisions anywhere I can point to. Also, whose troops massing and where? I was int he middle of a speculative piece for a blog about an Iranian move into Syria this afternoon and haven't had time to look up.

LMFAO......the numbnuts conjuring these rumors need to sit down with a topographical of Iran to acquire a base understanding of the logistical nightmare a full scale invasion of Iran would provide......no way we have the assets, support or ability to march into Iran......I call the sky is falling, the sky is falling....shesh

[Bob Kohm]

I agree, Frank. That said and contrary to the CW, the Rial is in free fall due to the incredible effectiveness of the US lead sanctions regime and the Mullahs threatened today to impise summary executions on currency teaders. The whels may be coming off in Teheran which could lead to Iran provoking the US or Israel into a nationalism inspiring strike. If we see a tanker hit with a missile this week I won't be at all surprised. Ditto on mines showing up in the Straits.

[bryanbutler]

To the contrary, that is dstinctly possible. More likely, he might carry one or two.

J

he's almost certain to carry NM. i know you've clung to the fact that he might lose it, but there would have to be quite a change for that to happen. your thinking that the republicans may gain the seat that bingaman is vacating (with heather wilson) has more chance than obama losing NM, but as you know i also think that's not going to happen (but i concede the possibility, since martin heinrich could really stub his toe in the race).

[Don Quixote]

I agree, Frank. That said and contrary to the CW, the Rial is in free fall due to the incredible effectiveness of the US lead sanctions regime and the Mullahs threatened today to impise summary executions on currency teaders. The whels may be coming off in Teheran which could lead to Iran provoking the US or Israel into a nationalism inspiring strike. If we see a tanker hit with a missile this week I won't be at all surprised. Ditto on mines showing up in the Straits.

For outfits like Iran, mines are as likely to take out their own ships as those of other nations.

As for provoking the US or Israel into a strike, I just don't see it. If they haven't provoked Israel into action yet, I don't think they'll be able to do it now when it's so obviously designed to be "nationalism inspiring". Israel plays its own game, sometimes to good effect, sometimes not. I don't see the US being provoked, either. We can flatten Iran's military without major trouble, particularly their air farce and navy, so why do it at a time of THEIR choosing?

The most likely scenario IMO--Iran blows up one of its own ships and/or ports and blames it on the US and/or Israel, which yawn and say, "Is that all you got?" The EU sucks up to Iran, Russia and China do the usual blame game, the American left as always assumes the worst about us and Israel and makes a lot of noise, and nothing winds up happening. Sound and fury, signifying nothing.

[onejayhawk]

he's almost certain to carry NM. i know you've clung to the fact that he might lose it, but there would have to be quite a change for that to happen. your thinking that the republicans may gain the seat that bingaman is vacating (with heather wilson) has more chance than obama losing NM, but as you know i also think that's not going to happen (but i concede the possibility, since martin heinrich could really stub his toe in the race).

New Mexico has long been the Democrat leaner in the mountain west. That being said, map makers like U Va are putting it as toss up or a lean Democrat.

This is a generic GOP vs Obama map from U Va

Note the three western states: Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado. These are three states where the Mormon factor will not play against Romney, and may help him, particularly Nevada. Michigan is another, since George Romney is a well remembered Governor. More from U Va

Romney, were he the nominee, could potentially make this generic map even better for Republicans. He has no obvious weaknesses in any of the swing states, at least as measured by head to head polling, which we fully grant is not necessarily all that predictive at this stage. Also, he could potentially make some of the competitive states harder for Obama: he could mobilize the not-insignificant Mormon population in Nevada to help in that state and play off his relative home field advantages in Michigan (his father was governor of the state he grew up in) and New Hampshire (he served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts and has built deep bonds with the Granite State, which paid off in his recent primary romp there). In fact, if Romney were the nominee, we’d likely switch New Hampshire to “leans Republican” from toss-up. While this only represents four electoral votes, consider this: take another five Obama states that went for George W. Bush twice (Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia) and put them in Romney’s column, and then add New Hampshire and all of John McCain’s states, and Romney is president.

J