*Official Sports Wagering Thread*

[umjewman]

+1100 on the Pads to win it all with their new and improved rotation?

[revo]

MNF
$50 Spread the Love - WON $95.45
$50 Newton u1.5 pass TDs - WON $89.00
$10 Allen u279.5 - LOST
$5 SGP: Knox TD, Moss TD, Allen u267.5 - LOST
$5 Knox TD - LOST
$5 Beasley o4.5 rec - LOST
$5 Morant o1.5 treys & MEM win - LOST

Total Wagered: $130.00
Total Payout: $184.45
Total +/-: $54.45

[Judge Jude]

that's $45.45 in "free money profit" along with $39 on a favorable "Odds Boost" countered by all $30 lost in traditional bets.

still, a profit of $54.45. maxing out when the odds are sweet and going modest with neutral wagers will leave you in the money almost every weekend.

meanwhile, here's an analysis of DK's offers in PA:

https://www.pennbets.com/draftkings-...ny-generosity/

[revo]

that's $45.45 in "free money profit" along with $39 on a favorable "Odds Boost" countered by all $30 lost in traditional bets.

still, a profit of $54.45. maxing out when the odds are sweet and going modest with neutral wagers will leave you in the money almost every weekend.

meanwhile, here's an analysis of DK's offers in PA:

https://www.pennbets.com/draftkings-...ny-generosity/

Yup, not every week we get sweet promos like this.

I usually get sucked in for $10-$20 in lost profits/added losses on parlays that rarely hit -- just what the books are looking for!


BTW, Keith told me late Tuesday night about a promo on FD that was "Two 3-pointers within the first 3 minutes of the MEM-PHX game" that amazingly, some goober at FD forgot to take it down upwards of 20 minutes after the game started -- and the bet had already hit! We bet the max on it, thinking it would be voided at worst. But it paid out! Free $50.

[revo]

Frae Arb of the Day, NYE version:

- take the NCAA Basketball +100% boost (not in NJ, sorry fellas)
- bet $50 on Idaho ML (+130) on DK
- bet $105.62 on Northern Arizona (-142) ML on FD
- walk away with a cool $24.38 in yer pocket

[revo]

Fox has a promo on Alabama & Clemson winning boosted to +100 ($10 max bet). Normal odds are -206.

[umjewman]

Fox has a promo on Alabama & Clemson winning boosted to +100 ($10 max bet). Normal odds are -206.

I used a boost on DK to get Bama money line and Clemson -7 up to +137. Not bad.

[revo]

I think we may have discussed this earlier, but FanDuel has Same Game Parlay insurance for up to $25, if one leg doesn't hit and your overall odds are greater than -200.

Using this, you can do a 3-leg NBA parlay with two -5000 props (such as alternate lines) and then a 1st basket, which is normally at least +400. So the total parlay with two -5000 legs and one +400 leg will be around +400 total, meaning a $25 wager would pay ~$150-$175, and you have the insurance if it doesn't hit but the two legs do.

Not a guarantee of course, but a good way to play the NBA on a daily basis with a shot at big $$ hits with a high level of protection.

[Judge Jude]

wow, 'bama now only giving 18.5 points to the Floundering Irish on FanDuel

#yesplease

[Judge Jude]

ah, the purity of amateur athletics at its finest.

ND trails 31-7 with under 4 minutes left and it's 4th and 8 at their own 45.

Coach Kelly waves the white flag and calls for a punt (it's COVID, you can hear it on the broadcast).

I kind of like that the coach doesn't know what the point spread is.

but somebody in the booth does, and they must have been screaming TIMEOUT TIMEOUT in his headset like a honey badger had just gotten into the booth or something.

after the timeout, Kelly now decides to go for it because - well, the high-rolling alums at least want you to kiss their ring and give the cover the old college try.

so they convert the first down, but things are winding down until - well, Coach Saban appears to have some sort of angry seizure on the Bama sideline. (maybe HIS boosters called in?)

the 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Saban energizes the hapless Irish, and they score a TD with 56 seconds left that literally flips millions of legal and illegal dollars from one set of pockets to the other.

ND recovers the onside kick, and gets down to the 15-yard line with 7 seconds left and call a timeout because - hey, it's only a 3-score game and a lot can happen! or something.

final is 31-14, Irish cover all wagers.

alternative theory: broadcast had shown ND with an 0-6 record in its last 6 "big games" since 1998 - I believe it was playoff or bigtime New Year's Day games, with an average losing margin of 24 points.

this was going to be a losing margin of - hey, lookee there, 24 points!

so now it's 0-7, but the losing average margin now is a mere 23 points, so there's that.

[Judge Jude]

Clemson now available at -7 on DK, down from 7.5

[umjewman]

Clemson now available at -7 on DK, down from 7.5

Looks like a solid bet (fart noise).

[Judge Jude]

the sequel.......

what a time to be alive:

I've got Texas A & M tonight at -10 points for 5 bucks and OVER 65.5 for 2 more bucks (after skipping any day bowl games entirely).

turns out to be very competitive, and at 27-27 midway through the 4th quarter, I realize my only salvage likely is OT, where in college 30-40 points can be scored due to their silly rules.

I'm looking good with 4 minutes left, A & M has the ball on their own 25. just one punt away from a couple of dice rolls.

then disaster seemingly strikes - my Aggie barely escapes a couple of tackles and suddenly runs 75 yards to daylight.

OMG, 34-27 so lead by only 7 and still UNDER.

UNC has 3 timeouts left so they can now punt on their 4th and 2 with 3 minutes left. instead they go for it and get stopped around their own 35.

this is a dream scenario - almost in FG range already, and UNC can stop the clock to force them to go for the push.

one 1st down, and now I like the push although I'll lose the OVER.

wait, another run for glory and..... my guy is stopped at the 1-yard line with 1:30 left. but UNC is still saving these timeouts like a subject of a reality-show hoarding episode. so A&M runs another play - TOUCHDOWN!

and I win both bets, miraculously!

wait, UNC can go all "Notre Dame" on me and snag the back-door cover - until a couple of sacks end that worry.

meanwhile, my $5 minus 10 bet had an odds boost, so instead about a $4.50 profit, it's doubled.

bottom line, I got back my Bama-ND money

[revo]

I had A&M -10 also with the 100% boost. Made up for other garbage NCAA picks, lol.

Week 17 NFL
$15 Round Robin - Chubb, Taylor, Dobbins TDs - WON ALL 3 $44.09
$5 Jefferson o79.5 - WON $9.05
$5 Watson o287.5 - WON $9.50
$10 Dobbins TD - WON $22.60
$3 SGP Dobbins o68.5 + TD - WON $9.01
$10 DAdams TD (boosted to +300) - WON $40.00
$10 Agholor o52.5 - WON $19.60
$5 Swift o52.5 - WON $8.50
$10 Henry o125.5 - WON $19.60
$5 Thielen TD - LOST
$3 Thielen TD + Jefferson over - LOST
$10 Chubb o72.5 - WON $20.80
$10 Taylor o83.5 - WON $18.16
$10 AJ Brown o61.5 - WON $17.10
$5 Kittle 52.5 - WON $9.55
$5 Chubb TD - WON $8.45
$5 SGP Chubb TD + Chubb o72.5 - WON $12.69
$10 Dobbins o68.5 - WON $19.43
$5 Cousins o270.5 - WON $9.00
$10 Gallman o50.5 - WON $18.70
$10 Taysom Hill TD - WON $26.20

Total Wagered: $161.00
Total Payout: $313.93
Total +/-: $152.93

21-2 on prop bets in the afternoon games!!!

I only lost the Thielen TD, which also cost me a small SGP! Dayum!


SNF
$5 McLaurin o45.5 - LOST
$10 WAS -6.5 - LOST
$5 Hurts o56.5 rush - LOST
$5 Hurts TD - WON $15.00
$5 McKissic o27.5 rec - WON $9.55
$10 McLaurin o3.5 rec - WON $15.68
$5 SGP: Gibson TD + McKissic o27.5 rec - lost
$5 SGP: Gibson TD, McKissic o29.5 rec, Hurts o56.5 rush, Hurts TD - LOST
$10 Gibson o66.5 rush+rec - WON $18.93
$5 Gibson TD - LOST
$10 WAS to win NFC East - WON $33.00

Total Wagered: $75.00
Total Payout: $92.16
Total +/-: $17.16


Final tally of 2020
Starting seed money: $300.00
Current Bankroll: $1,552.00
Total +/-: $1,252.00
Total return: 417%

[Judge Jude]

DK giving away $25 in NJ, probably other states: you win unless there are NO TDs scored in any of the playoff games this weekend.

not in PA, sorry guys.

I believe Iowa just went legal, and Michigan is maybe sometime this week. check you local listings for details.