*Official Sports Wagering Thread*

[revo]

DK - in NJ, at least - is giving you $25 if you take any team in the two opening night games on Tuesday and they DON'T lose by at least 76 points.

that will bump me to $363 off an original investment 4 years ago of $25 - a tidy profit borne in large part by dopey promotions but my picks are above water as well.

In PA, it’s Embiid over 7.5 pts.

[Judge Jude]

So I had an interesting night - and keep in mind that with millions of people betting on this game, somebody out there had big money on each of my bets and somebody else had all the opposite:

- I need 27 points to win 3 bucks on first half OVER
- and 278 yards to win 3 bucks on QB Herbert 279 yards OVER
- and 52 points to win 5 bucks on game OVER

I snag a TD with 19 seconds left in the first half for a 17-10 score - SCORE!

after 3 quarters, I only need 17 Herbert passing yards and 12 total points to sweep the night

DraftKings offers me a cash out at profit on the game Over, and is so doomed on Herbert that they don't even bother.

Raiders go on a 19-play drive that ends with a TD with about 6 minutes left and a 24-24 game.

so I just want 17 yards from Herbert to win another bet, and maybe a TD as well.

but LAC goes about 50 yards on all runs, then misses a late FG - then does it again so it's OT.

Herbert 4th quarter: 0 for 1, 0 yards.

I want LAC to win the coin flip, Herbert 18 yards, and again go for the TD.

but VEG wins it, and marches methodically into the red zone. ok, score the TD to win my main bet, and the other 2 mostly cancel each other out.

wait, VEG settles for a 22-yard FG. hmm, I still need 2 points and 18 yards, but ok.

under 3 minutes left in the game, and Herbert finally completes a pass - 53 yards - and I'm 2 for 2 with the ball at the 2-yard line.

nothing on first down, then Herbert fumbles at the goal line on a keeper but his teammate recovers in the end zone to win it and for me.

wait, only the ball carrier can retrieve a fumble forward in the end zone (google "Raiders Dave Casper fumble" from the 1970s).

so 3rd and goal. Herbert tries again, and gets stopped - but a second effort barely gets him in, and I am $10.20 richer, lol

[Judge Jude]

as far as that silly CLE-BAL finish, FanDuel refunded all bets of CLE +3.5 or better, so that the safety didn't cost any of their customers money.

it's a publicity stunt, but an effective one. not unusual with finishes like that one.

[revo]

Week 15 NFL Action
$25 Allen o1.5 pass TD (boosted to +100) - WON $50.00
$10 Sweetheart - DAL +14, CHI +12.5, NE +9 - LOST
$10 Taylor TD (boosted to +300) - WON $40.00
$5 McLaurin o69.5 - WON $9.25
$5 Montgomery o60.5 - WON $9.25
$5 Dobbins TD - WON $11.00
$5 Haskins o230.5 - WON $9.50
$10 Barber u34.5 - WON $19.90
$5 CDavis o63.5 - WON $9.50
$5 AJ Brown o67.5 - LOST
$5 Perriman u44.5 - WON $9.05
$5 Darnold u204.5 - LOST
$5 SGP - u44.5, Perriman u40.5 - WON $17.35
$5 Kupp o59.5 - LOST
$5 Taylor o93.5 rush+rec - WON $9.46
$5 Hilton o59.5 - WON $8.73
$10 Aiyuk o70.5 - WON $17.80
$5 Tua u220.5 - WON $9.75
$5 Godwin o60.5 - LOST
$5 Brady o300.5 - WON $9.55
$5 Pittman o50.5 - LOST
$5 Tonyan TD - WON $13.75
$10 Jones o60.5 - WON $18.00
$10 Allen + Rodgers 2 pass TDs each - LOST
$10 Singletary o54.5 rush +rec - WON $18.93
$10 live bet - Rams +2.5 - LOST

Total Wagered: $190.00
Total Payout: $311.27
Total +/-: $121.27


Had my best prop day of the year, hitting 18 out of 24 wagers.


Sunday Night Football
$15 Browns win + Chubb TD - WON $45.00
$5 Chubb o77.5 - LOST
$5 Parlay Chubb o77.5. Chubb TD, Gallman TD - LOST
$10 Chubb o89.5 rush+rec - LOST
$5 Gallman TD - LOST
$5 Mayfield u240.5 - LOST
$10 Mayfield o224.5 - WON $17.10
$5 Chubb TD - WON $9.00
$5 Chubb 1st TD - PUSH

Total Wagered: $55.00
Total Payout: $71.10
Total +/-: $16.10

[Judge Jude]

I signed up with BetMGM - put in $100, they give you $100

but looks like you only have a couple of weeks to "risk" the free-money $100 or it goes away - which normally would take me months.

hoping to break even overall on a bunch of $10 (!) bets, and then I get a free $90
today it's Colts -7, 49ers -3.5, Chiefs -3

UPDATE:

Colts go up 14-0 early, hibernate for almost 3 hours, then get a late TD for a T
49ers in it all the way, lured in by last-minute Zeke scratch. but L

Chiefs up 14 points w the ball w 11 minutes left, fluke fumble bounces generously to NOS, quick TD. still up 7 w 5 minutes left and 1st and goal. NOW they don't punch it in and settle for a FG?

then Saints convert on 4th down to keep a drive alive and get what pretty likely was going to be a meaningless TD unless you are giving 3 points #cmonman T

so 0-1-2 #weird

[revo]

How Offshore Oddsmakers Made a Killing off Gullible Trump Supporters

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/trump-betting-markets-sportsbooks-offshore-2020-election-gambling.html?utm_campaign=wp_the_trailer&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_thetrailer

[Judge Jude]

if I read my BetMGM promo correctly, I signed up with $100 and they matched AND I just saw that they gave me a pair of $50 "free bets" that expire in a week. so I could wait for two games on Sunday but I'm afraid with the holidays that I'll waste both freebies.

so I took PIT -14 tonight vs CIN as one of the freebies. holy hell I think the Steelers have 5 punts and a fumbled snap in the first quarter, with ZERO first downs.

then again, the Bengals moved the ball 1 whole yard off the fumble and settled for a FG so they lead 3-0.

hoping that's as good as it gets for hapless CIN and that Ben sobers up soon.....

even worse is that Ju Ju danced on the Bengals midfield logo in the pre-game, which proves him to a be a douchebag. what is this, 4th grade? so I kinda don't even want the Steelers to win now.

and gee, the Bengals' secondary looks pretty damn fired up, Ju Ju Genius - and you just got popped and pwned on your fumble, too

[Judge Jude]

you reap what you sow - it's true

[Gregg]

Has there ever been more of a lock than the Bears/Jags game this weekend?

Chicago has to win to stay in the playoff race. Jags have to lose to get that #1 pick. The line is only 7.5. If you were the Jags owner would you want a game that close?

I don't play, but if I did I would be all over that Bears -7.5. Probably at 5 times my normal average bet.

[The Feral Slasher]

Has there ever been more of a lock than the Bears/Jags game this weekend?

Chicago has to win to stay in the playoff race. Jags have to lose to get that #1 pick. The line is only 7.5. If you were the Jags owner would you want a game that close?

I don't play, but if I did I would be all over that Bears -7.5. Probably at 5 times my normal average bet.

Glad you didn't post this last week for the Rams/Jets game! !

[The Feral Slasher]

Glad you didn't post this last week for the Rams/Jets game! !

Ken disagrees

[Judge Jude]

I did not choose CHI in one of my 5 weekly picks, though my co-host (who is under .500) did.

CHI D is stellar but I don't trust their offense.

[revo]

Don't forget the DK promo tonight! In PA, it's Embiid o7.5 pts, but elsewhere it's even more of a slam dunk (pun intended). $25 max bet, +100.

[Judge Jude]

I forgot to "sweat" my Nets +75 points last night for 25 bucks in NJ.

they won by 25, so I guess it was no nailbiter lol.

took PHI Simmons w odds boost on DK for +125 on him hitting four 3-pointers all season. I'll be alive in that one even til the final week!

[Judge Jude]

so on Monday I could have hedged my $50 free bet on PIT on BetMGM with a $25 bet on DraftKings instead of "letting it ride" (and losing their money).

since these bets disappear within days and it's a holiday week, I figured I'd grab a bet I like and get the hedge in this time.

so the other $50 free bet goes to MIN +7 vs NOS. then I went to place $25 on DK but.... its MIN +6.5.

so if NOS wins by 7, I push on 50 and lose 25. damn, that feels like - well, "gambling."