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10 unsettling answers to the fermi paradox
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostWhat math says that if there is life elsewhere in the vast, ever expanding universe that they must be here, with us, right now, on earth? Please show your work.“There’s no normal life, Wyatt, it’s just life. Get on with it.” – Doc Holliday
"It doesn't matter what you think" - The Rock
"I borked the entry." - Some dude on the Internet
Have I told you about otters being the only marine animal that can lift rocks?
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostWhat math says that if there is life elsewhere in the vast, ever expanding universe that they must be here, with us, right now, on earth? Please show your work.
It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostWhat math says that if there is life elsewhere in the vast, ever expanding universe that they must be here, with us, right now, on earth? Please show your work.
With pleasure....it's called the Drake Equation
N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L
The Drake Equation is used to estimate the number of communicating civilizations in the cosmos, or more simply put, the odds of finding intelligent life in the universe.
I'm not going to argue with the math"You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski
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there's also the rare earth equation too but i've never attempted that one. i think it's harder. i've done the drake equation a few times and i always come out to one technological civilization per galaxy. but i noticed the 2nd time i did it, i felt bias and like i was trying to fudge my answers to come out the same.
also, the other day i heard them say the milky way hasn't had very many collisions. and actually, i suspected as much! heh
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Originally posted by nullnor View Postthere's also the rare earth equation too but i've never attempted that one. i think it's harder. i've done the drake equation a few times and i always come out to one technological civilization per galaxy. but i noticed the 2nd time i did it, i felt bias and like i was trying to fudge my answers to come out the same.
also, the other day i heard them say the milky way hasn't had very many collisions. and actually, i suspected as much! heh"You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski
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Originally posted by Fresno Bob View PostI wont argue right here, right now, on earth. But the math supports elsewhere and concurrent
With pleasure....it's called the Drake Equation
N = R* • fp • ne • fl • fi • fc • L
The Drake Equation is used to estimate the number of communicating civilizations in the cosmos, or more simply put, the odds of finding intelligent life in the universe.
I'm not going to argue with the math
Very hard to argue the math without numbers.
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Originally posted by nullnor View Postactually i think most galaxies have collisions. i'd have to look it up.
“There’s no normal life, Wyatt, it’s just life. Get on with it.” – Doc Holliday
"It doesn't matter what you think" - The Rock
"I borked the entry." - Some dude on the Internet
Have I told you about otters being the only marine animal that can lift rocks?
Comment
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Originally posted by Gregg View PostThe challenge (at least for now) is that astronomers don't have firm numbers on any of those variables, so any calculation of the Drake Equation remains a rough estimate for now.
Very hard to argue the math without numbers.“There’s no normal life, Wyatt, it’s just life. Get on with it.” – Doc Holliday
"It doesn't matter what you think" - The Rock
"I borked the entry." - Some dude on the Internet
Have I told you about otters being the only marine animal that can lift rocks?
Comment
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Originally posted by Gregg View PostThe challenge (at least for now) is that astronomers don't have firm numbers on any of those variables, so any calculation of the Drake Equation remains a rough estimate for now.
Very hard to argue the math without numbers.
I don't have any idea whether there are other intelligent civilizations in the universe. To say we have evidence one way or the other is false. It's more fun to imagine there other civilizations than not, of course, so that's what I hope for, but this is all being dressed up as way more scientific than it actually is."Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer View PostI'm super uncomfortable with calling this math. It's not that we don't have "firm" numbers for fl, fi, and fc. We don't have any numbers at all. So this is "guessing" or "imagining" or "positing", not math.
I don't have any idea whether there are other intelligent civilizations in the universe. To say we have evidence one way or the other is false. It's more fun to imagine there other civilizations than not, of course, so that's what I hope for, but this is all being dressed up as way more scientific than it actually is.
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Originally posted by Gregg View PostThe challenge (at least for now) is that astronomers don't have firm numbers on any of those variables, so any calculation of the Drake Equation remains a rough estimate for now.
Very hard to argue the math without numbers."You know what's wrong with America? If I lovingly tongue a woman's nipple in a movie, it gets an "NC-17" rating, if I chop it off with a machete, it's an "R". That's what's wrong with America, man...."--Dennis Hopper
"One should judge a man mainly from his depravities. Virtues can be faked. Depravities are real." -- Klaus Kinski
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Originally posted by Fresno Bob View PostWhen you are dealing with numbers like 100 or 200 Billion on the front end, none of the other numbers need to be that big to make a decent probability"Jesus said to them, 'Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you.'"
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Originally posted by Fresno Bob View PostWhen you are dealing with numbers like 100 or 200 Billion on the front end, none of the other numbers need to be that big to make a decent probability
You are correct that they don't have to be "that big", but if you start out assuming one of the unknown factors required for life is 1 in 1000 but in reality it is 1 in a trillion, it means that your 100 or 200 Billion on the front end doesn't help you much.
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