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on deck: Hurricane Irma

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  • #1

    on deck: Hurricane Irma

    already a cat 5 Hurricane ... and now this from the National Hurricane Centre this am ...

    ... Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records.
    I'm assuming that we don't have any RJ members in the Turks and Caicos or Puerto Rico ... at this point the trajectory (very preliminary) has it crossing the Florida Keys & turning north towards the Florida panhandle.

    edit: pic added ...
    Last edited by TranaGreg; 09-05-2017, 01:12 PM.
    It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    If that heads due north into FL as some models project, it's going to soak up a ton of moisture from the everglades & Lake Okechobee too and decimate the central part of the state that is mostly trees, lakes, and a lot of mobile homes

    Comment

    • #3
      Don't some of these run out into the Gulf, lose steam and die? (I hope.)
      If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. - Karl Popper

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by Redbirds Fan View Post
        Don't some of these run out into the Gulf, lose steam and die? (I hope.)
        my recollection of past ones is that the gulf - being relatively shallow, thus warmer water - actually fuel them to become stronger.
        It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

        Comment

        • #5
          Lets hope that projection is wrong and it turns north just in time. The projection does show it dropping to a cat 3 as it nears florida so thats something at least.
          "The Times found no pattern of sexual misconduct by Mr. Biden, beyond the hugs, kisses and touching that women previously said made them uncomfortable." -NY Times

          "For a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real, whether or not she forgets facts" - Joe Biden

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          • #6
            updated path projection as of 11am below; a few misc notes:

            -initial islands are planning for a 20 ft storm surge ... further along the path are some lower Bahama islands where the max elevation is 10 ft.
            -the storm has >180mph sustained winds for more than 24 hours (the most any other Atlantic hurricane has had was 18 hours)
            -a friend from work who is in the Dominican Republic is being evacuated this morning (a local carrier sent 7 planes this am to get Canadians on vacation back home).
            -even the president has weighed in ... "It looks like it could be something that will be not good. Believe me, not good."

            edit: I'm looking at the current weather conditions for the BVI where the eye is supposed to hit in about an hour - it shows current wind speeds of 127mph with gusts to 81 mph ... even the wind gauges can't keep up

            Last edited by TranaGreg; 09-06-2017, 10:58 AM.
            It certainly feels that way. But I'm distrustful of that feeling and am curious about evidence.

            Comment

            • #7
              Cripes....

              Polk County Sheriff.jpg
              I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

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              • #8
                Originally posted by heyelander View Post
                Cripes....

                [ATTACH=CONFIG]990[/ATTACH]
                I am aware of laws which require convicted sex offenders to register their residence, and even ones which prohibit them from residing within a certain distance of schools, etc., but I was not aware of any laws which prohibited convicted sex offenders from seeking emergency shelter.
                If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. - Karl Popper

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by heyelander View Post
                  Cripes....

                  [ATTACH=CONFIG]990[/ATTACH]
                  During Hurricane Katrina, predators preying on vulnerable people in shelters was an issue, wasn't it? I assume this is an attempt to prevent a repeat of that.
                  "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
                  "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
                  "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by senorsheep View Post
                    During Hurricane Katrina, predators preying on vulnerable people in shelters was an issue, wasn't it? I assume this is an attempt to prevent a repeat of that.
                    I don't recall any coverage of issues regarding convicted sex offenders preying on people in shelters. I remember concerns about sex offenders being free to roam the streets and move across the country, as if they couldn't already do that.

                    There were a ton of sexual assaults in NOLA following Katrina, but everything I remember tied it to the general lawless state of affairs and the fact that the victims couldn't get assistance from police, National Guard or anyone else due to the chaos. I don't recall anything about increased activity by convicted sex offenders.

                    Quiz: What's the difference between a sex offender and a sexual predator?

                    EDIT: I looked for something in FL law about sex offenders and shelters, couldn't find anything. Louisiana law seems to be that you cannot keep someone out because they are a convicted offender.

                    You can certainly arrest someone with an outstanding warrant, although it didn't work out so well when those 600 inmates were left in a flooded jail in Orleans Parish back in 2005.

                    In Florida, the difference between an offender and a predator is the seriousness of the offense for which you were convicted.
                    Last edited by Redbirds Fan; 09-07-2017, 04:43 PM.
                    If we extend unlimited tolerance even to those who are intolerant, if we are not prepared to defend a tolerant society against the onslaught of the intolerant, then the tolerant will be destroyed, and tolerance with them. - Karl Popper

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Redbirds Fan View Post
                      I don't recall any coverage of issues regarding convicted sex offenders preying on people in shelters. I remember concerns about sex offenders being free to roam the streets and move across the country, as if they couldn't already do that.

                      There were a ton of sexual assaults in NOLA following Katrina, but everything I remember tied it to the general lawless state of affairs and the fact that the victims couldn't get assistance from police, National Guard or anyone else due to the chaos. I don't recall anything about increased activity by convicted sex offenders.
                      Hurricane Katrina left survivors vulnerable to sexual assault. Here’s how to protect Irma evacuees.
                      https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/8/30/16221902/hurricane-harvey-katrina-sexual-assault-survivors
                      Aid workers have learned that evacuation doesn’t always mean safety.


                      Originally posted by Vox
                      Almost a third of sexual assaults reported during that storm and Hurricane Rita, which hit New Orleans a month later, took place at evacuation shelters, according to a survey by the National Sexual Violence Resource Center. Shelters were the most common site of reported sexual violence.
                      "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
                      "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
                      "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by senorsheep View Post
                        https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/...ault-survivors
                        and the next couple of paragraphs from your article...

                        The most dangerous shelters tended to be those that were understaffed, or where staff were not trained in disaster relief, said Greg Forrester, the president of National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster, which is helping to coordinate shelter efforts in Texas.

                        Overcrowding and chaotic shelter conditions can put evacuees at increased risk of sexual assault, said Gebhardt. So can inadequate lighting and an abundance of out-of-the-way areas where people can commit violence unobserved.

                        Every shelter needs workers distributed throughout who can be on the lookout for signs of sexual violence, said Ann Robison, the executive director of the Montrose Center, which offers mental health counseling and other services for LGBTQ people in Houston. “It’s almost like posting a guard,” she said.
                        No where does the article say anything about it being helpful to threaten to lock up people with too many unpaid parking tickets...
                        I'm not expecting to grow flowers in the desert...

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                        • #13
                          The police would be told to arrest anyone attempting to enter the shelters that had outstanding warrants. According to the ACLU the majority of those warrants are for parking tickets and moving violations.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by heyelander View Post
                            No where does the article say anything about it being helpful to threaten to lock up people with too many unpaid parking tickets...
                            That's how you read the tweet you posted? That they'll be locking up people for parking tickets? It seemed to me that they were looking to separate sex offenders and sexual predators from the general shelter populations. Is the second part of the message not connected to the first?
                            "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
                            "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
                            "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Lurker765 View Post
                              The police would be told to arrest anyone attempting to enter the shelters that had outstanding warrants. According to the ACLU the majority of those warrants are for parking tickets and moving violations.
                              If that's true, that's crazy. I hope the second part of that message was a clarification of the first part.
                              "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less."
                              "The question is," said Alice, "whether you can make words mean so many different things."
                              "The question is," said Humpty Dumpty, "which is to be master - that's all."

                              Comment

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