2016 Presidential Battleground States?

[Erik]

Bottom line, unless they become progressives, diverse, committed to equality and demand the separation of church and state the GOP will never again have a sitting president.

It can happen if the economy completely crashes under the Dems' watch or a Dem president has a Watergate-level scandal. (No, Whitewater, Benghazi and the email thing aren't at that level.)

But, many issues in the GOP platform are total losers on the nationwide level, and will become moreso as more of the current GOP base dies off. The platform doesn't have to become "progressive" per se to fix this, but it does need to move on from 1950s era ideas such as xenophobia and gay-bashing. In state and Congressional-district contests, this is less of a problem.

[GwynnInTheHall]

A little light on the statistics there Doig.

Judge Jude already said it, but never say never in politics. A vast right wing conspiracy may beat Hillary.

J

Only a Democrat can beat Hillary.

[GwynnInTheHall]

It can happen if the economy completely crashes under the Dems' watch or a Dem president has a Watergate-level scandal. (No, Whitewater, Benghazi and the email thing aren't at that level.)

But, many issues in the GOP platform are total losers on the nationwide level, and will become moreso as more of the current GOP base dies off. The platform doesn't have to become "progressive" per se to fix this, but it does need to move on from 1950s era ideas such as xenophobia and gay-bashing. In state and Congressional-district contests, this is less of a problem.

I agree, but the chances of those things happening are slim to none as the Democrats won't allow free range grazing by the financial markets.

[onejayhawk]

Only a Democrat can beat Hillary.

Consider it done then.

J

[Wonderboy]

I agree with just about everything here except the 'Hillary ain't no Kerry'.

You have a much higher opinion of the campaigning skills of Kerry than I do. Other than Dukakis, Kerry was the worst campaigner I've ever seen. And that includes Mondale. He sat around while the Swiftboaters trashed his military record. "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it." A VP candidate that he wasn't on speaking terms with. Wind-surfing.

Hillary isn't perfect, but she isn't anywhere close to as bad as Kerry, and he got 252 electoral votes against a sitting president.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Oh I have no Doubt Hillary will whoop anything the GOP runs out, but am still not impressed with her ability to change the status quo which i think is the direst of needs in Washington.

[nots]

You have a much higher opinion of the campaigning skills of Kerry than I do. Other than Dukakis, Kerry was the worst campaigner I've ever seen. And that includes Mondale. He sat around while the Swiftboaters trashed his military record. "I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it." A VP candidate that he wasn't on speaking terms with. Wind-surfing.

Hillary isn't perfect, but she isn't anywhere close to as bad as Kerry, and he got 252 electoral votes against a sitting president.

If you're talking worst ever, Al Gore would like to have a word. VP during 8 years of unprecedented growth, yet somehow how winds up (narrowly) losing to, let's be kind, an intellectual lightweight. Great decision to have one of the most popular Presidents of the 20th century sitting on the bench while you run around the country yelling 'lockbox'. Even if you believe he won, he should have won with about 350 EVs.
The one debate where he wandered around aimlessly still has to be one of the most bizarre things if ever seen by a nominee for President.
'No thanks, Bill, I got this'.

[GwynnInTheHall]

If you're talking worst ever, Al Gore would like to have a word. VP during 8 years of unprecedented growth, yet somehow how winds up (narrowly) losing to, let's be kind, an intellectual lightweight. Great decision to have one of the most popular Presidents of the 20th century sitting on the bench while you run around the country yelling 'lockbox'. Even if you believe he won, he should have won with about 350 EVs.
The one debate where he wandered around aimlessly still has to be one of the most bizarre things if ever seen by a nominee for President.
'No thanks, Bill, I got this'.

You are correct he should have won by more than he did, though I don't know if he would have been brought back for a second term but it would have definitely been interesting to see how he handled 9/11 over JRs debacle.

[Judge Jude]

Gore also lost his home state of Tennessee, or they wouldn't have had to play paper-rock-scissors to determine the overall outcome in 2000.

Hillary has a chance to be awful, although her IQ might be as high as Kerry, Gore, and GW Bush combined.

Already she announced her campaign on social media (memo to millennials: "I'm hip!"), rode to Iowa in a van, and stopped outside of Toledo at a Chipotle where she didn't talk to anyone but tipped off the NY Times to her visit.

Put her in a tank wearing a windsurfing outfit and shouting "Mission Accomplished!" and she'll be off to the races, lol.

[onejayhawk]

Hillary has a chance to be awful, although her IQ might be as high as Kerry, Gore, and GW Bush combined.

More than a chance if last week is any example.

J

[swampdragon]

More than a chance if last week is any example.

J

I get it - you dont like her.

Who would make YOU happiest to win and how can they win?

[chancellor]

The cringiest moment for Kerry, imo, was the whole SUV fiasco --- talking smack about other people riding in SUVs and then off into the sunset in your own.

Hmmm...interesting. I thought it was the boat/yacht issue.

[Judge Jude]

Well, it's like the divorce that supposedly is triggered because one spouse couldn't stand how gross the other one kept their toothbrush. It's never really about any one thing like that. It's about a series of mistakes that lead to an inexorable conclusion.

Kerry was wildly wealthy and pretended to be interested in "the regular Joe." It never rang true, and each blunder underscored it.

Hillary has the same vulnerability to start, and dopey ideas like ordering from Chipotle during a trip in a van (rather than her preferred private jet) are bricks in the wall. That one didn't matter in itself because not many paid attention. But if she can't figure out how to shake off a vague sense among the populace that she is phony, she eventually will run into trouble.

She actually had a 'winning moment' at that New Hampshire primary in 2008 when she wavered a bit and seemed human. The challenge is that she and Bill are both focus-group obsessed. That's ok for Bill, because he could bullshit his way through anything. When Hillary tries the same thing, it tends to fall flat.

Even MSNBC had a panel groaning about her start.

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/msnbc-pan...campaign-ever/

[DMT]

All aspirants to the presidency face the same problem of trying to appeal to the masses while being in the uber-elite.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Except some of them will presumably act against the "best interests" of the 1%, even though they are in that group. I actually find that pretty admirable, to be honest.

Elizabeth Warren TYVM.