2012 was not a close election, but it was a lot closer than the electoral vote indicates. Of the 126 vote margin, 58 attribute to Florida, which was extremely close, less then 1%. This was very much a ground war election. Barack Obama swept the close races, except for North Carolina. Much of the credit needs to go to historic GotV numbers, which may have swung three populous states.
These states were under 6%
* Iowa
* New Hampshire
* Colorado
* Pennsylvania (tipping point state)
* Virginia
* Ohio
* Florida
* North Carolina
As with 2000 and 2004, Florida and Ohio are very close. Virginia only slightly less close. A Republican needs two of three, but that is very doable. Pennsylvania (or Colorado) is the tipping state, but only by 2 EV. New Hampshire's four votes is enough. Other potential flip states are Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa.
Going the other direction, North Carolina is the only close state that the Democrats can target. Wisconsin and Minnesota are closer than Georgia, the next closest red state.
www.270towin.com lets you start with the NBC battleground states as toss ups. The initial position is 232 blue - 164 red. Florida is almost required for the Republicans to win, again. Moving it 1%, easily within the scope of GotV, in 2012 changes the EV margin from 126 to 68.
J
These states were under 6%
* Iowa
* New Hampshire
* Colorado
* Pennsylvania (tipping point state)
* Virginia
* Ohio
* Florida
* North Carolina
As with 2000 and 2004, Florida and Ohio are very close. Virginia only slightly less close. A Republican needs two of three, but that is very doable. Pennsylvania (or Colorado) is the tipping state, but only by 2 EV. New Hampshire's four votes is enough. Other potential flip states are Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa.
Going the other direction, North Carolina is the only close state that the Democrats can target. Wisconsin and Minnesota are closer than Georgia, the next closest red state.
www.270towin.com lets you start with the NBC battleground states as toss ups. The initial position is 232 blue - 164 red. Florida is almost required for the Republicans to win, again. Moving it 1%, easily within the scope of GotV, in 2012 changes the EV margin from 126 to 68.
J
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