Obama and Afghanistan

[The Feral Slasher]

#1 - Well, let's list the easiest catastrophes in order:

- Our intelligence services are fully exposed as incapable of successfully working in this area of the world.
- Our military was proven to be incapable of training an army with superior numbers and firepower to defend their country.

Those first two don't really seem like catastrophes, just acknowledgement of reality. I suppose I should add that the second point is kind of off base in that there was really no hope that we could train people to defend their country if they didn't want to do it and didn't share our goals. It wasn't a failure of training. Training was not the problem.

EDIT: if the lesson we learn from Afghanistan is that we need to be better at training.... Who am I kidding, we won't learn anything, we'll get to do it all again somewhere soon. And I'm sure better training will make all the difference

[GwynnInTheHall]

#1 - Well, let's list the easiest catastrophes in order:

- Our intelligence services are fully exposed as incapable of successfully working in this area of the world.
- Our military was proven to be incapable of training an army with superior numbers and firepower to defend their country.
- We have hundreds of staff and thousands of Afghan supporters stranded in a country where we hold only the airport.

The first two led to these longer term ramifications:

- The Taliban has been gifted a treasure trove of military material. We don't even know exactly what and how much, but we're talking high-level material - Blackhawks to high-tech armor to drones to gazillions of trucks, personnel carriers and the like. How that'll be used and sold... who knows?
- The lack of self-awareness to understand and plan for a worst-case outcome means we'll likely repeat the same error.

Per #2, I've perhaps not made my point clear. It's not that the President shouldn't listen to his advisors, but it's that every single advisor has failed in their duty and doesn't even appear to realize they've hosed up. His NSA failed him. His leading military advisors failed him. State failed him.

I would counter that the United States military, outside of a couple of weeks in Kuwait, has bothced every military incursion since Korea.

It's not at all a surprise to watch in horror or shame as we drag our asses out of another exercise in arrogance.

It's an expected failure.

The airport is secure, the taliban seem to be honoring the deal trump negotiated with them.

Blaming the failure of the afghan army and govt on Biden or the United States is not really correct.

If you believe that the US should have known that they would collapse, then you should advocate for the united States to annex their country and make it a protected entity like Puerto Rico or Guam.

It IS our fault, but collectively, not just this administration.

Plus, wasn't it trump who let loose the leader of this offensive?

[chancellor]

I would counter that the United States military, outside of a couple of weeks in Kuwait, has bothced every military incursion since Korea.

I'd include Korea, but we're pretty much in agreement.

Blaming the failure of the afghan army and govt on Biden or the United States is not really correct.

The failure was not recognizing how fast the Afghan army would collapse. And, yes, I do hold the Biden administration responsible for that failure. In addition, because we failed to recognize this, inadequate planning was done at the logistical and diplomatic areas, which has led to an inexcusable amount of material lost, much of it Top Secret. That doesn't mean we should have annexed them; in this, I happen to agree we shouldn't have been there more than a few months rather than 20 years.

Seitzer's analogy was good as far as it went. What he left out was that due to the doctor's failure to plan the operation, the diseased leg was taken off without anesthesia. Sure, the doc saved the patient in the end, but did so with needless pain and scarring.

Plus, wasn't it trump who let loose the leader of this offensive?

Yup, and with about 4,000 others, most of whom probably fought in the offensive. And even armed with this information, we still failed to figure out that all of northeastern Afghanistan would fall in less than a weekend.

[rhd]

Kabul 2021: Saigon 1975 2.0

Biden's explanation: Nixon's "Peace with Honor" speech 2.0

[Kevin Seitzer]

One thing that is sad to me is that I don't think that, even though we are finally doing this necessary withdrawal of ground troops from Afghanistan, with all the resultant tragic but inevitable outcomes for many Afghan people, that we are going to abandon the drone war that kills so many (mostly innocent/mistaken) people in Afghanistan and Pakistan or other countries.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I also don't understand the allegations that the withdrawal is being botched and large amounts of secret information and high-tech equipment are being left in Taliban hands. Initially I accepted that because it was said in this thread, but the more I looked into it, the less I saw any substantive evidence for it. I saw stories in the news a week ago that the embassy had been instructed to destroy sensitive information. If they can't destroy the information in a week's time, what's wrong with them? Is that actually happening or are people just stoking fears that it could? And is the equipment that's falling into Taliban hands the equipment that we supplied to the Afghan Army? In which case, maybe the decision to do that in the beginning was the problem and the result of a series of bad decisions? We could hardly take that equipment away from the Afghans as we left, could we? "Hey, um...that Humvee we gave you...um, we're gonna need that back, thanks." The Taliban appears to be letting the American military make an orderly withdrawal, in accordance with the negotiated agreements, and even slower than the negotiated timeline (which was negotiated under the Trump admin, btw). Why would we need to leave any of our sensitive equipment behind?

Intelligence failure - sure.
Embarrassment of having to admit we made a 20-year mistake - absolutely.
Yet another failure of war and military might to solve problems - yes.
Chaos and bad ramifications for many Afghans - yes, and tragically so.

But pinning it all on a poorly executed withdrawal plan? I don't see it.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I will say if there is one tragedy that upsets me, it's the potential that we might not get everyone out of the country who worked for us. That indeed is a troubling turn of events and speaks to a lack of planning.

[DMT]

I also don't understand the allegations that the withdrawal is being botched and large amounts of secret information and high-tech equipment are being left in Taliban hands. Initially I accepted that because it was said in this thread, but the more I looked into it, the less I saw any substantive evidence for it. I saw stories in the news a week ago that the embassy had been instructed to destroy sensitive information. If they can't destroy the information in a week's time, what's wrong with them? Is that actually happening or are people just stoking fears that it could? And is the equipment that's falling into Taliban hands the equipment that we supplied to the Afghan Army? In which case, maybe the decision to do that in the beginning was the problem and the result of a series of bad decisions? We could hardly take that equipment away from the Afghans as we left, could we? "Hey, um...that Humvee we gave you...um, we're gonna need that back, thanks." The Taliban appears to be letting the American military make an orderly withdrawal, in accordance with the negotiated agreements, and even slower than the negotiated timeline (which was negotiated under the Trump admin, btw). Why would we need to leave any of our sensitive equipment behind?

Intelligence failure - sure.
Embarrassment of having to admit we made a 20-year mistake - absolutely.
Yet another failure of war and military might to solve problems - yes.
Chaos and bad ramifications for many Afghans - yes, and tragically so.

But pinning it all on a poorly executed withdrawal plan? I don't see it.

Well said.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I'd include Korea, but we're pretty much in agreement.



The failure was not recognizing how fast the Afghan army would collapse. And, yes, I do hold the Biden administration responsible for that failure. In addition, because we failed to recognize this, inadequate planning was done at the logistical and diplomatic areas, which has led to an inexcusable amount of material lost, much of it Top Secret. That doesn't mean we should have annexed them; in this, I happen to agree we shouldn't have been there more than a few months rather than 20 years.

I'm thinking you're just looking, like a few of my other friends, to lay whatever you can at Biden's feet. there are far more valid and Biden specific criticisms you could argue with more individual merit than this.

We've all agreed that the US Military isn't very good at things, ESPECIALLY making a plan, executing that plan and withdrawing from occupied areas.

They have been getting it wrong for almost 70 years and NEVER seem to learn.

Unless you expected Biden to do what no other President or Admin has done before him, I believe your criticism, though valid in a vacuum, is much ado.

Now let's get out of Iraq and watch it be all f8cked up too.

[TranaGreg]

I also don't understand the allegations that the withdrawal is being botched and large amounts of secret information and high-tech equipment are being left in Taliban hands. Initially I accepted that because it was said in this thread, but the more I looked into it, the less I saw any substantive evidence for it. I saw stories in the news a week ago that the embassy had been instructed to destroy sensitive information. If they can't destroy the information in a week's time, what's wrong with them? Is that actually happening or are people just stoking fears that it could? And is the equipment that's falling into Taliban hands the equipment that we supplied to the Afghan Army? In which case, maybe the decision to do that in the beginning was the problem and the result of a series of bad decisions? We could hardly take that equipment away from the Afghans as we left, could we? "Hey, um...that Humvee we gave you...um, we're gonna need that back, thanks." The Taliban appears to be letting the American military make an orderly withdrawal, in accordance with the negotiated agreements, and even slower than the negotiated timeline (which was negotiated under the Trump admin, btw). Why would we need to leave any of our sensitive equipment behind?

Intelligence failure - sure.
Embarrassment of having to admit we made a 20-year mistake - absolutely.
Yet another failure of war and military might to solve problems - yes.
Chaos and bad ramifications for many Afghans - yes, and tragically so.

But pinning it all on a poorly executed withdrawal plan? I don't see it.

I read something recently about all US embassies requiring 48-hour plans whereby with 2 days notice they can walk out (or get flown out) knowing that everything within it is destroyed or taken with them. I have to assume that was in play here.

I gotta think that army bases or supply bases would have similar plans for removal or destroyal of property, esp arms & ammo ... so yeah, I have a hard time with these claims as well

OTOH, as you point out, US equipment left for the "Afghan Army" ... I'm sure that's now Taliban property

[chancellor]

I also don't understand the allegations that the withdrawal is being botched and large amounts of secret information and high-tech equipment are being left in Taliban hands. Initially I accepted that because it was said in this thread, but the more I looked into it, the less I saw any substantive evidence for it.

"We don't have a complete picture, obviously, of where every article of defense materials has gone, but certainly, a fair amount of it has fallen into the hands of the Taliban, and, obviously, we don’t have a sense that they are going to readily hand it over to us at the airport." - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

From the AP News Wires:

Built and trained at a two-decade cost of $83 billion, Afghan security forces collapsed so quickly and completely — in some cases without a shot fired — that the ultimate beneficiary of the American investment turned out to be the Taliban. They grabbed not only political power but also U.S.-supplied firepower — guns, ammunition, helicopters and more.

The Taliban captured an array of modern military equipment when they overran Afghan forces who failed to defend district centers. Bigger gains followed, including combat aircraft, when the Taliban rolled up provincial capitals and military bases with stunning speed, topped by capturing the biggest prize, Kabul, over the weekend.

A U.S. defense official on Monday confirmed the Taliban’s sudden accumulation of U.S.-supplied Afghan equipment is enormous. The official was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and so spoke on condition of anonymity.

Other media sources ranging from NBC, Reuters, Times of Israel and Fox have similar information.

I understand you don't see these losses as significant nor due to poor planning and execution. Our mileage clearly varies.

[MagSeven]

Those first two don't really seem like catastrophes, just acknowledgement of reality. I suppose I should add that the second point is kind of off base in that there was really no hope that we could train people to defend their country if they didn't want to do it and didn't share our goals. It wasn't a failure of training. Training was not the problem.

EDIT: if the lesson we learn from Afghanistan is that we need to be better at training.... Who am I kidding, we won't learn anything, we'll get to do it all again somewhere soon. And I'm sure better training will make all the difference

Training wasn't the problem as much as their codependence on us to be there for them at all times. We played the part of the enabler that bailed out their military whenever needed. They weren't trained to function on their own.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Training wasn't the problem as much as their codependence on us to be there for them at all times. We played the part of the enabler that bailed out their military whenever needed. They weren't trained to function on their own.

Exactly

[Kevin Seitzer]

"We don't have a complete picture, obviously, of where every article of defense materials has gone, but certainly, a fair amount of it has fallen into the hands of the Taliban, and, obviously, we don’t have a sense that they are going to readily hand it over to us at the airport." - National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan

From the AP News Wires:



Other media sources ranging from NBC, Reuters, Times of Israel and Fox have similar information.

I understand you don't see these losses as significant nor due to poor planning and execution. Our mileage clearly varies.

No, that's not what I said. Those losses are unfortunate or whatever word you want to put on them. I said I don't know how you take that equipment back from the Afghan military as you leave. "Hey, by the way, please give us back the tanks and jets and Humvees because we think you all are gonna fold to the Taliban." How does that work? The mistake was giving them the equipment in the first place. And that mistake happened because we lied to ourselves that we could build up an adequate Afghan military. Or are you suggesting that we should have confiscated the equipment of the Afghan security forces on our way out?

I'm saying the main mistakes in planning and execution in terms of lost valuable equipment happened years or decades ago, and there wasn't much that could be practically done at this point to salvage that situation, other than staying there indefinitely to prop them up.

[Bene Futuis]

The original withdrawal was negotiated by former guy WITH THE TALIBAN and not the Afghan gov't. But now we're upset that the Taliban are the ones getting the benefit of the bargain our country made with the Taliban? And former guy was the one who acceded to the Taliban demand, for reasons unknown, that the Afghan government NOT be a part of the negotiations. This fake hand-wringing and pearl-clutching is disingenuous and infuriating.