The new COVID thread

[Sour Masher]

Update from his wife:

just got off the phone with the doctor, Tom is coming home today. It will be a long recovery. He will come home with oxygen tank to help with the recovery. This is tough but we are happy he is coming home… thank everyone for their prayers and encouragement.

That is great to learn. Thank you for the update. Going home is a big step!

[Sour Masher]

Most older people here have had the Oxford Vaccine + Moderna booster ... I'm pretty sure there's no data on that combo yet. But indications (guesstemations) are that it will be similar to the SA data. There is no data contradicting that as far as I know (yet).

That said, I feel there is a growing problem emerging that could be crushing, and the experts and authorities doesn't seem to even recognize it. The public/political narrative of this variant is almost identical to the previous 2/3 waves, when it's clear the underlying data is very different.

On the one hand, this variant seems insanely contagious, so many people will catch it fast (perhaps millions of consecutive infections in large countries). Even a low/very-low percentage of hospitalizations will be hard to handle at the best of times.

On the other hand, we have a system set up to cope-with the much more dangerous Alpha/Beta and Delta variants (but less contagious). The procedures we have in place to manage Delta could cripple our infrastructure if it's faced with an inundation. In the UK we have a ping system that, by law, demands you isolate if you have been in the vicinity of a positive patient. Given the predicted rate of infections for Omicron, our entire Health service will surely get pinged all at once? If there are no staff in our hospitals because of a farcical-ping-frenzy ... we are going to be f****d. I haven't heard anyone even mention the ping system?

This inundation is going to require fast, decisive, pro-active political leadership - and since modern democracies do-not and can-not provide this, I think we're f****d either way. Even if Omicron is effectively the end of the pandemic, and come March/April we have reached herd-immunity ... this is going to be FUGLY!

One last bungling political farce before normality hopefully returns. Shit show incoming boys.

Yeah, countries will need to adapt to a much more contagious infection with Omicron. I agree, this is going to get worse before it hopefully gets better. Like every variant before it, it has proven significantly more infectious than its predecessors. This time, it seems more mild, but given how it is spreading and how ineffective vaccinations are proving against infection, a whole lot of people are going to get sick very fast. Despite it being milder, it is going to spread everywhere, and it is not only going to hit those with some protection, but those people are going to spread it to those with no protection. Here is a good article that sums up the spectrum of outcomes: https://www.vox.com/22824183/omicron...pfizer-vaccine

The short of it is in its title: Omicron looks to be less risky for each of us, but worse for us collectively. Even with lower mortality rates, the sheer number of infections will likely lead to hundreds of thousands more in hospitals and dead. I sure hope we get to a point where so many people are protected that new variants don't kill as many people and we can just treat it like the common cold. We still seem years away from that right now.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yeah, countries will need to adapt to a much more contagious infection with Omicron. I agree, this is going to get worse before it hopefully gets better. Like every variant before it, it has proven significantly more infectious than its predecessors. This time, it seems more mild, but given how it is spreading and how ineffective vaccinations are proving against infection, a whole lot of people are going to get sick very fast. Despite it being milder, it is going to spread everywhere, and it is not only going to hit those with some protection, but those people are going to spread it to those with no protection. Here is a good article that sums up the spectrum of outcomes: https://www.vox.com/22824183/omicron...pfizer-vaccine

The short of it is in its title: Omicron looks to be less risky for each of us, but worse for us collectively. Even with lower mortality rates, the sheer number of infections will likely lead to hundreds of thousands more in hospitals and dead. I sure hope we get to a point where so many people are protected that new variants don't kill as many people and we can just treat it like the common cold. We still seem years away from that right now.

Has it been established that Omicron is milder ? I have seen differing takes on that

[The Feral Slasher]

Has it been established that Omicron is milder ? I have seen differing takes on that

One example

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1471833968655966212

[Sour Masher]

Has it been established that Omicron is milder ? I have seen differing takes on that

I don't think we have enough data, since SA may have skewed the initial impressions since their population is younger and has already had lots of infections, so many who got Omicron were infections and young. But the small sample sizes we are seeing as it spreads does suggest it is less fatal than Delta (thee fact that the data is mixed makes sense, and we won't really know until it al gets aggregated, but more data so far seems to suggest it is milder to some degree). But it is also far more infectious, so even if it is less deadly for an individual, it is still bad news for society.

[Sour Masher]

One example

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDin...33968655966212

More data is needed on severity, but the data on infection rate is firmer, so we know it spreads faster. So, it is either bad news, or horrible news. I've seen enough to guess it is milder at this point, but maybe not mild enough to make up for the fact that it clearly spreads faster. We just don't know yet. It would have to be very mild to make up for the infection rate. Every variant has been more infectious than the last, but this looks like it may be the largest leap in infection rate so far.

[The Feral Slasher]

I don't think we have enough data, since SA may have skewed the initial impressions since their population is younger and has already had lots of infections, so many who got Omicron were infections and young. But the small sample sizes we are seeing as it spreads does suggest it is less fatal than Delta (thee fact that the data is mixed makes sense, and we won't really know until it al gets aggregated, but more data so far seems to suggest it is milder to some degree). But it is also far more infectious, so even if it is less deadly for an individual, it is still bad news for society.

My impression is there not enough known to conclude much yet regarding severity. If it is less severe, I dont think it will be vastly less severe. Anyway, with how Omicron spreads things appear to be headed in a bad direction. Trevor Bedford is one guy I occasionally get info from. He said something to the effect "after being vaccinated I went back out to restaurants and movie theatres, I will have to stop that due to Omicron". Anyway it appears we are headed for some more difficult times.


edit:added link to article

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/12/america-omicron-variant-surge-booster/621027/

[Sour Masher]

My impression is there not enough known to conclude much yet regarding severity. If it is less severe, I dont think it will be vastly less severe. Anyway, with how Omicron spreads things appear to be headed in a bad direction. Trevor Bedford is one guy I occasionally get info from. He said something to the effect "after being vaccinated I went back out to restaurants and movie theatres, I will have to stop that due to Omicron". Anyway it appears we are headed for some more difficult times.

Yeah, I have stopped venturing out for all but essentials. Infection rates are high in my area, even though Omicron is not dominant yet, or even close to it. It will definitely get worse before it gets better. I am hopeful they develop more effective vaccines to take on Omicron soon. Right now, they are focused on getting boosted with the old stuff, but I think adjustments are coming ASAP that will prove more robust against Omicron. It may end up being that way for a long time, which won't make big pharma sad.

[Sour Masher]

One good thing so far with Omicron is the early evidence that suggest symptoms manifest more quickly than with Delta (severe infection is manifesting faster too; The London data indicates it is taking 6 days to reach hospitalization vs 10 for Delta). If that is true, one would hope it would lead to less people walking around infected without knowing it. But even if that is the case, it seems like the spread is going to quicken. Whether Omicron is less severe or simply that the population it is infecting is more protected (which makes sense at this stage), the end results should be a decline in mortality rate long term as more and more people get infected. But sadly, we still have a long way to go and many lost lives on the road to that. Years and untold dead. It is depressing.

[The Feral Slasher]

Yeah, I have stopped venturing out for all but essentials. Infection rates are high in my area, even though Omicron is not dominant yet, or even close to it. It will definitely get worse before it gets better. I am hopeful they develop more effective vaccines to take on Omicron soon. Right now, they are focused on getting boosted with the old stuff, but I think adjustments are coming ASAP that will prove more robust against Omicron. It may end up being that way for a long time, which won't make big pharma sad.

By numbers Omicron isnt close to dominant, but from a time perspective it is. I saw some speculation that it will be too fast to prepare a specific vaccine booster for.

[Sour Masher]

By numbers Omicron isnt close to dominant, but from a time perspective it is. I saw some speculation that it will be too fast to prepare a specific vaccine booster for.

They will probably get it out too late, but I'd be shocked if they are not touting a new and improved formula at some point, if for no other reason than as a marketing tool to get more people vaxxed and boosted. In the meantime, there is no end in sight for this pandemic.

[The Feral Slasher]

They will probably get it out too late, but I'd be shocked if they are not touting a new and improved formula at some point, if for no other reason than as a marketing tool to get more people vaxxed and boosted. In the meantime, there is no end in sight for this pandemic.

I am sure we are just getting started on vaccine boosters, I was just questioning the ability to develop, test, manufacture, and distribute faster than Omicron will run its course

[The Feral Slasher]

I thought this was a good interview. Highlights how much is still not known, but somewhat optimistic overall

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/the-south-africa-omicron-wave-is-already-peaking-why.html

[johnnya24]

Has it been established that Omicron is milder ? I have seen differing takes on that

Milder is relative. We are just better prepared as a population because of infection-immunity and vaccination/booster immunity. Without 2 years of building up various kinds of immunity who knows how this variant would effect us.? Recent research has suggested that Omicron is 10x less invasive on lung tissue ... so that's presumably why we are seeing less hospitalizations, and no lung/cough symptoms. Only flu-like symptoms.

The South Africa data (and early London data) is clearly suggesting a much milder experience, and there is no data (as yet) counteracting this.

I'm increasingly in the camp of "now's the time to take a stand". We have mass vaccinations and massive booster uptake. Booster gives you a 70+% chance of catching Omicron and having ZERO symptoms, and even if you do get symptoms, the overwhelming early indications are mild/manageable symptoms for only a few days. Of those who have been hospitalized, oxygenation is far less than Delta, and severe cases that require ventilation are very few. Plus Omicron will displace Delta, which will be huge.

What are we waiting for? A highly infectious strain that is also more potent?

The problem is, that people will be hospitalized no matter what, and sadly some will die. Politicians and experts know this. The modern politician/political-party is only concerned with one thing ... their own f*****g asses. They cannot present the upcoming situation is an accurate manner, because their political opponents will use it against them. We have a system that is so decrepit and institutionally corrupt, that it can't even pretend to do the right thing in a time of crisis. How their actions might be seen to affect their future electability is more important than doing the right thing. And we wonder why some people are drawn to crackpots and conspiracy theorists.

Unfortunately, our political system of highly contagious avoidance of responsibility means we will just meander into a situation were lockdown is forced, not because of Omicron, but because of outdated, unnecessary, and pointless isolation protocols. The good news, is that when this happens the politicians can claim it wasn't their fault ... oh ... and people will die anyway, because we aren't stopping the spread of Omicron - it's far too contagious. But at least our politicians can feel snugly insulated from blame ... "it were the varus what did it guvner, we just followed protocols"

Sleep walking into another lockdown because of incompetent cowardly leadership.

[The Feral Slasher]

Milder is relative. We are just better prepared as a population because of infection-immunity and vaccination/booster immunity. Without 2 years of building up various kinds of immunity who knows how this variant would effect us.? Recent research has suggested that Omicron is 10x less invasive on lung tissue ... so that's presumably why we are seeing less hospitalizations, and no lung/cough symptoms. Only flu-like symptoms.

The South Africa data (and early London data) is clearly suggesting a much milder experience, and there is no data (as yet) counteracting this.

I'm increasingly in the camp of "now's the time to take a stand". We have mass vaccinations and massive booster uptake. Booster gives you a 70+% chance of catching Omicron and having ZERO symptoms, and even if you do get symptoms, the overwhelming early indications are mild/manageable symptoms for only a few days. Of those who have been hospitalized, oxygenation is far less than Delta, and severe cases that require ventilation are very few. Plus Omicron will displace Delta, which will be huge.

What are we waiting for? A highly infectious strain that is also more potent?

The problem is, that people will be hospitalized no matter what, and sadly some will die. Politicians and experts know this. The modern politician/political-party is only concerned with one thing ... their own f*****g asses. They cannot present the upcoming situation is an accurate manner, because their political opponents will use it against them. We have a system that is so decrepit and institutionally corrupt, that it can't even pretend to do the right thing in a time of crisis. How their actions might be seen to affect their future electability is more important than doing the right thing. And we wonder why some people are drawn to crackpots and conspiracy theorists.

Unfortunately, our political system of highly contagious avoidance of responsibility means we will just meander into a situation were lockdown is forced, not because of Omicron, but because of outdated, unnecessary, and pointless isolation protocols. The good news, is that when this happens the politicians can claim it wasn't their fault ... oh ... and people will die anyway, because we aren't stopping the spread of Omicron - it's far too contagious. But at least our politicians can feel snugly insulated from blame ... "it were the varus what did it guvner, we just followed protocols"

Sleep walking into another lockdown because of incompetent cowardly leadership.

I've seen several articles that offer hope that Omicron will be less severe, but again, I don't think that has been established or widely accepted at this point.

https://www.ft.com/content/020534b3-5a54-4517-9fd1-167a5db50786

Ferguson said that the data provided “no strong signal of an intrinsically reduced severity of Omicron versus Delta”. But he added that a “much more definitive judgment” could be made “within a week” as more data emerge on Omicron-related admissions, which are increasing “quite sharply” in London and Manchester.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03794-8

Early results suggest a glimmer of hope. Reports from South Africa have consistently noted a lower rate of hospitalization as a result of Omicron infections compared with infections caused by the Delta variant, which is currently responsible for most SARS-CoV-2 infections globally. On 14 December, the South African private health insurer Discovery Health in Johannesburg announced that hospitalization risk has been 29% lower among people infected with Omicron, compared with people infected with a previous variant.

This has fuelled suggestions that Omicron causes milder disease than previous variants. But researchers say it is too early to be sure, and key methodological details of that study have not yet been published. Such details are crucial when interpreting data on disease severity, which can be confounded by factors such as hospital capacity, the age and overall health of those initially infected, and the extent of previous exposure to coronavirus.

But the results from Discovery Health are in keeping with other studies in the country, says Waasila Jassat, a clinician and public-health specialist at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases in Johannesburg. “There are many caveats and disclaimers around early severity data,” she says. “But the picture is very consistent.”

It will take time for a consistent picture to emerge from countries that currently have fewer Omicron infections. On 13 December, Denmark released data showing that hospitalization rates for people infected with Omicron seemed to be on a par with those for people infected with other variants. But this comparison was based on only about 3,400 cases of Omicron infection and 37 hospitalizations.

Similarly, a 16 December report from Imperial College London found no evidence of diminished hospitalizations from Omicron infections compared with Delta in England, although this was again based on relatively few cases. Overall, the numbers are still too small to draw firm conclusions about the severity of disease caused by Omicron, says Troels Lillebęk, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Copenhagen.

Here is another interesting thread. Data in many cases is hopeful, but I think it is still early to have strong conclusions.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1472323464270946308