President Joseph Biden

[The Feral Slasher]

It isn't about whether he is a kind a caring person. Coal mining has always had an outsized footprint in terms of identity in his area. He hears them, because they are the WV cowboys and a lot more folks identify with them than are them. He will listen or it could cost him. He has to be able to spin his stance as pro miners.

So maybe I am missing something, but wouldn't supporting the miners union allow him to do that ?

[Sour Masher]

At least they got housing and weekly minimum salary increases this year. You think they'll get anything from the new CBA?

Ha, I had to double check my spelling there after this comment. But seriously, he will either sign an altered version that he can claim as a victory, or if he rejects it, he really has to explain it in a way that makes sense to appease miners and those that support them. This isn't about me defending the guy. He cost me money with his last round of this stuff, and he has cost the Dems and all the people who had high hopes for what they could get done so much. Believe me, I am not fan of his.

But the idea that his spin on this will be, whatevs, miners are only a tiny fraction of my voters misses how big mining is to the fantasy a lot of folks embrace in WV. It is like the cowboy mythos. They have outsized influence for that reason.

[The Feral Slasher]

Ha, I had to double check my spelling there after this comment. But seriously, he will either sign an altered version that he can claim as a victory, or if he rejects it, he really has to explain it in a way that makes sense to appease miners and those that support them. This isn't about me defending the guy. He cost me money with his last round of this stuff, and he has cost the Dems and all the people who had high hopes for what they could get done so much. Believe me, I am not fan of his.

But the idea that his spin on this will be, whatevs, miners are only a tiny fraction of my voters misses how big mining is to the fantasy a lot of folks embrace in WV. It is like the cowboy mythos. They have outsized influence for that reason.

But his position is apparently against what the coal miners union wants. I'm struggling to understand this.

[Sour Masher]

So maybe I am missing something, but wouldn't supporting the miners union allow him to do that ?

Given the comments that have come to light recently, it is clear he doesn't think much of most working class folks. I think it is likely he believes rejecting the bill is good for him and maybe even the miners. If so, again, he will exert his will and tremendous leverage to get the changes he wants, which will be another win for him, or he will put a lot of effort into spinning not signing as being to the benefit of his voters, including miners. He has already highlighted some of what needs to happen for him to support it. he wants money to only go to parents he considers in need, and he wants it to go to grandparents who care for kids, because of their drug addict parents. He is really worried that druggie parents whose kids are being watched by those in his generation will get the money and spend it on more drugs. Or at least that is what he is saying. But he can say and do whatever he wants. The Dems have to crawl back to him, catering to whatever his demands are. This isn't over yet. I still think some version of it gets passed, once Manchin gets to make whatever changes he wants. And when that happens, that union, and all his voters will embrace him fully.

[Sour Masher]

But his position is apparently against what the coal miners union wants. I'm struggling to understand this.

It is at the moment. I am saying that will not last. I am saying he will eventually sign something that will make that union happy, or he will do what it takes to win them over in some other way. I'm just saying he cannot and will not completely dismiss coal miners and those that support them. It would be like a Republican saying "I don't care about the military." It isn't gonna happen. But we have seen time and again, repubs gets away with spinning bad policy for the military as good for them and being cheered for it. He will either have to do right by them or find a way to sell the wrong as right.

[The Feral Slasher]

It is at the moment. I am saying that will not last. I am saying he will eventually sign something that will make that union happy, or he will do what it takes to win them over in some other way. I'm just saying he cannot and will not completely dismiss coal miners and those that support them. It would be like a Republican saying "I don't care about the military." It isn't gonna happen. But we have seen time and again, repubs gets away with spinning bad policy for the military as good for them and being cheered for it. He will either have to do right by them or find a way to sell the wrong as right.

ok, this sounds like a completely different discussion. He is clearly not taking his current position because he is supporting coal miners as was suggested earlier.

[Sour Masher]

ok, this sounds like a completely different discussion. He is clearly not taking his current position because he is supporting coal miners as was suggested earlier.

My pushback was on the idea that he does not care what coal miners think. I think he does, because he cares about maintaining power, and despite there only being 11k coal miners in WV (you were accurate in saying less than 15k, but it is even less than 12k), if he loses them (not just union leaders, but the rank and file), I think he would lose his seat. Their votes don't sway anything, but the next person that runs against him puts a bunch of them in ads saying Manchin a chump, it would have a huge negative impact on him.

Time will tell how he will win them over, but it ain't over yet. I assume he ends up signing once he gets whatever he wants out of the deal. He has all the power. He can play whatever games he wants right now, as long as when it is time to vote for him again, he can sell whatever the final outcome of this is to his constituents. Until we know the end game here, we don't actually know if his move here will help or hurt coal miners more. Maybe the final bill will have to include more pork for them. I don't think he will leave them hanging, and, again, that is not a argument about what is in his heart, or how he cares about the little people. He already said he thinks people will just blow tax credits on drugs and hunting trips. But we don't know the final outcome yet. I do know he will most assuredly screw a lot of people with the changes he demands, but I think that group will likely include me, but not coal miners in WV. It just would not make sense for him from a self-preservation standpoint.

[The Feral Slasher]

My pushback was on the idea that he does not care what coal miners think. I think he does, because he cares about maintaining power, and despite there only being 11k coal miners in WV, if he loses them (not just union leaders, but the rank and file), he would lose his seat. Time will tell how he will win them over, but it ain't over yet. I assume he ends up signing once he gets whatever he wants out of the deal. He has all the power. He can play whatever games he wants right now, as long as when it is time to vote for him again, he can sell whatever the final outcome of this is to his constituents. Until we know the end game here, we don't actually know if his move here will help or hurt coal miners more. Maybe the final bill will have to include more pork for them. I don't think he will leave them hanging, and, again, that is not a argument about what is in his heart, or how he cares about the little people. He already said he thinks people will just blow tax credits on drugs and hunting trips. But we don't know the final outcome yet. I do know he will most assuredly screw a lot of people with the changes he demands, but I think that group will likely include me, but not coal miners in WV. It just would not make sense for him from a self-preservation standpoint.

I am just struggling to believe that he is somehow supporting coal miners by ignoring what the coal miners union apparently wants. Also struggling to believe his position is based on what is good for his constituents. Anyway, I have said more than enough

[Sour Masher]

I am just struggling to believe that he is somehow supporting coal miners by ignoring what the coal miners union apparently wants. Also struggling to believe his position is based on what is good for his constituents. Anyway, I have said more than enough

None of that matters much to him or most politicians. What matters is how his actions will be perceived. Right now, they are perceived negatively by the coal miners' union. Whether his actions ultimately help or hurt his voters, what I believe he will be very aware of is how they are perceived, not at this moment, but in the long run. Those two things may not end up lining up.

[heyelander]

It's complicated:

that's enough to kill anything

[The Feral Slasher]

None of that matters much to him or most politicians. What matters is how his actions will be perceived. Right now, they are perceived negatively by the coal miners' union. Whether his actions ultimately help or hurt his voters, what I believe he will be very aware of is how they are perceived, not at this moment, but in the long run. Those two things may not end up lining up.

I understand all that, my comments were in response to a post that suggested Joe Manchin's position is based on his concerns about how this bill will impact coal miner jobs. Which I don't believe, but I'm probably just cynical

[The Feral Slasher]

that's enough to kill anything

complicated is enough to pass anything when it benefits the wealthy, but enough to kill anything that doesn't. It's complicated.

[chancellor]

So maybe I am missing something, but wouldn't supporting the miners union allow him to do that ?

If you believe union leadership actually represents the political views of their members. Reality is vastly different.

[The Feral Slasher]

If you believe union leadership actually represents the political views of their members. Reality is vastly different.

I'm actually in a union and understand that. I still don't believe that Manchin's position is based on his concern about coal miners jobs. You or others probably disagree.

EDIT: I probably should say that if you think Joe Manchin actually represents coal miners, reality is vastly different.

[The Feral Slasher]

If you believe union leadership actually represents the political views of their members. Reality is vastly different.

Simple question, do you believe that Joe Manchin is motivated by concern about coal miners? Is that why he takes the positions he does? Out of concern for coal miners?

EDIT: I am probably far too cynical to have these conversations. Maybe Joe does care about people other than himself.