Originally posted by Kevin Seitzer
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Ruth Bader Ginsburg Died
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Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View Posta short term feeling of haha fuck you libs.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostMight not. We'll know soon - if McConnell schedules hearings shortly after he gets the name, then he's confident he has 50. My betting line is he goes all-in, and if there's any doubt, offers Manchin a committee chair to lock up his vote. If I'm wrong, he'll be figuring out how to lame duck it shortly after the election, which will likely lock up at least one of those three votes.
If the push through a Nomination pre election and lose out to the Dems in all 3 branches, the Dems will expand the court, pack it and then bring PR and DC into the Union to assure they hold it for a while. There already looking for retribution over the past 4 years and I doubt pushing through someone will do anything to change that. They could wait until after the election and maybe get those votes if any of the No votes lose re-election, but any vote take after the election would be contested in manners not seen at a national level before. If they just skip it, they still hold a 5-4 majority.
THE issue that would set the country on fire would be--They cram though a Justice, they lose but contest the election, the SCOTUS decides it in Favor of Trump 5-4 with the new Justice casting the deciding vote. The Country Burns.
I just don't see how ramming through a nominee, against their own 2016 reasoning, does anything by provide a short term feeling of haha fuck you libs.
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Originally posted by chancellor View PostMight not. We'll know soon - if McConnell schedules hearings shortly after he gets the name, then he's confident he has 50. My betting line is he goes all-in, and if there's any doubt, offers Manchin a committee chair to lock up his vote. If I'm wrong, he'll be figuring out how to lame duck it shortly after the election, which will likely lock up at least one of those three votes.
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Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View PostDo they even have the votes? I count at least three no votes for the gop and the candidates have been nominated yet
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Do they even have the votes? I count at least three no votes for the gop and the candidates have been nominated yet
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Originally posted by Teenwolf View PostA little worrisome that many of the battles over which ballots get counted in the Presidential election are counted or not could be decided by a Supreme Court with 5 conservatives and 3 Liberals.
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A little worrisome that many of the battles over which ballots get counted in the Presidential election are counted or not could be decided by a Supreme Court with 5 conservatives and 3 Liberals. I think Trump's ability to rig the election just went through the roof. Biden needs a blowout to overcome these challenges.
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Originally posted by madducks View Post
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Originally posted by onejayhawk View PostI agree, but that's the way the game is played. Were the situation reversed, there is no doubt Schumer would say the same thing.
All that said, I do not expect this to move that rapidly. The Court can scarcely move left, regardless of the new Justice, and no one along the lines of Garland would pass. After Kavanaugh, only an outright Democrat majority would suffice. Moreover, I expect a nomination soon after the election, for the new Senate to consider. My gut says either Amy Barret or Amur Thapar. you may rest assured a short list will be widely available before voting. Again, that's the way the game is played.
As if you played fair the last four years.
Trump will win reelection. The question is whether the Republicans expand their majority in the Senate and/or win back the House.
J
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Originally posted by Sour Masher View PostVery sad day. It is incomprehensible to me how McConnell can sell the idea of trying to replace her before November when Scalia died in February, Garland was nominated in March, and he and other Republicans argued it was much too little time to get it done and it was immoral to do so with the election just a short 8 months away.
It is easy to forget she was considered a moderate most of her life, but the SC had moved so far to the right, she became a liberal by comparison, and the court is far more conservative now and likely to get even more so.
All that said, I do not expect this to move that rapidly. The Court can scarcely move left, regardless of the new Justice, and no one along the lines of Garland would pass. After Kavanaugh, only an outright Democrat majority would suffice. Moreover, I expect a nomination soon after the election, for the new Senate to consider. My gut says either Amy Barret or Amur Thapar. you may rest assured a short list will be widely available before voting. Again, that's the way the game is played.
Originally posted by GwynnInTheHall View PostDon't despair too much--The Dems should win the WH, the Senate and keep the house--IF the GOP pushes through another Justice, the Dems simple expand the court and pack it with their choices. No need to play fair anymore.
Trump will win reelection. The question is whether the Republicans expand their majority in the Senate and/or win back the House.
J
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Originally posted by frae View PostI can't do the political calculus tonight, I will instead just be sad for RBG and her family. Hell of a justice.
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