Corona Virus

[Sour Masher]

eventually we are going to have the face the fact that the only choice is to open up everything and let the virus run it's course.

it's not the end of the world. it's a trial run for next time it happens.

I have always believed this was the inevitable outcome, but we were stalling to develop antivirals and a vaccine. I think it was the right move. Within the next 6 months, we will have more effective antivirals and vaccines that will be at least 70% effective, most likely. At that point, given many, many millions won' trust taking a vaccine, we will still be far from beating this thing, but at that point, good enough will have to do. Life will have to go on--hopefully by that point this thing is only killing as many people per month as the flu in a bad flu season, though that may be too optimistic.

[nullnor]

I have always believed this was the inevitable outcome, but we were stalling to develop antivirals and a vaccine. I think it was the right move. Within the next 6 months, we will have more effective antivirals and vaccines that will be at least 70% effective, most likely. At that point, given many, many millions won' trust taking a vaccine, we will still be far from beating this thing, but at that point, good enough will have to do. Life will have to go on--hopefully by that point this thing is only killing as many people per month as the flu in a bad flu season, though that may be too optimistic.

at some point we can't rely on science to bail us out. remember and apply that to when we are talking about other arguments- for example if we can't control a virus how can we control the weather; or other systems prone to chaos. this virus is so asymptomatic and can infect more species at the same time than any other virus in history. growing old or living unhealthy or having underlying conditions through no fault of oneself is now truly a death sentence. while I feel bad for people, and I say that being very guarded because it's a bad thing, dying. this is why immortality was always a bad idea. our job is to die, but make the world a better place for the next generation. and pass on what we learn, whether we do it naturally thru genes or historically through literature.

nature is getting impatient with us and decided to start picking us off herself. it's a strange world. I don't agree with the rules but I can't deny it's logic. as the first technologically intelligent civilization in the universe, if we don't learn from our mistakes we are doomed to repeat them.

[nullnor]

it should be noted that it took months for heath care to adapt and find the best treatments. that the virus was depleting oxygen in the blood in addition to lungs.

maybe this is where they will really shine, compared to 1918, modern heath care is pretty awesome. I learned a lot as a regular at veterinarians. medical professionals are like soldiers. if something specific needs to be done they do it flawlessly. but when you start bombarding them with a disease with a constellation of symptoms it becomes to hard to maintain the initiative.

the medical world was completely ready. that may sound odd and contradictive, but I don't think you'd ever find a world more ready for, and at the same time, more unprepared for COVID-19.

it's not like this is a one time event. we'll get by this time, maybe. but what about next time? SARS, MERS, COVID-19, Fill in the blank, conditions haven't changed. whether it's gain of function or natural. it's out there stalking us. Covid-19 didn't happen out of some large random unlucky occurrence. and there's nary a chance of altering conditions from preventing a similar spillover again. or will we go 2-2 and science will save us again.

someday diseases like this will just be a tee-shirt of the week. people will say, yeah, but the stock market is up to 30k. we already do it now.

[nullnor]

you actually have to respect the crowd at the WH during the final night of the RNC. those guys weren't stupid. they were rich, healthy, had the best medical care. did anyone see pictures of that hot woman in a black dress you could almost see the muscle tone in her arms like an anatomy picture. some chick worth billions that works out all day at the gym- while her husband works with Mitch McConnell shipping goods to China with his Secretary of Transportation wife. ah, the American dream.

that crowd did the math. and some people will probably fall ill and die; even irresponsibly, people they interact with that weren't there. they didn't not social distance or wear masks because they were stupid. unlike other rally's with so-called poor people, they know the risks. but they did it anyways to make a statement. that's cut-throat. they are willing to die from a virus for what they believe in. and that scares me.

[TranaGreg]

For a fairly optimistic viewpoint , from the science world no less ...

I’m Optimistic That We Will Have a COVID-19 Vaccine Soon

[nullnor]

For a fairly optimistic viewpoint , from the science world no less ...

I’m Optimistic That We Will Have a COVID-19 Vaccine Soon

https://news.yahoo.com/im-infectious...113047962.html

We're Unlikely to Eradicate It

it's not a bad article for yahoo.

[rhd]

As if things werent messed up enough as it is:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/513704-cdc-says-asymptomatic-people-dont-need-testing-draws-criticism-from-experts

The basic idea of the article is contained in the last part of the above link. This is completely counter to what the CDC said just months ago. Is it any wonder that this pandemic is as bad as it is here when the leading medical organizations, both national and international, that everyone is relying on for sound info and recommendations are as incompetent and/or corrupt as this?

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 8/24 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago. Mortality rate is figured using the current death total divided by the total cases from the update 3 weeks ago (8/10):

- 6,175,008 cases in the US, up from 5,874,295, an increase of 5.10% which is a smaller increase than last time (5.51%). The new cases for this period were 300,713 which gives a 7-day daily average of 42,959, down from 43,790. A comparison w last period's new cases (306,530) gives a new cases increase rate of 0.981, higher than that of the last update (0.834) but still below 1.00.
- 187,227 deaths in the US, up from 180,605, an increase of 3.67% which is a smaller increase than last time (4.31%). At this rate of increase, the US projects to have 200,000 deaths by about 9/13. The new deaths for this period were 6,622 which gives a 7-day daily average of 946, down from 1,067. The mortality rate is 3.60% (187,227/5,200,313), lower than last time (3.75% (180,605/4,813,984)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 1.71% (6,622/386,329), about the same as last time (1.69% (7,466/441,992)).
- 25,396,341 cases worldwide, up from 23,595,204, an increase of 7.63% which is a smaller increase than last time (8.07%). The new cases for this period were 1,801,137, which gives a 7-day daily average of 257,305, up from 251,682. A comparison w last period's new cases (1,761,772) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.022, which is higher than last time (0.968).
- 851,839 deaths worldwide, up from 813,784, an increase of 4.68% which is a smaller increase than last time (5.17%). At this rate of increase, the world projects to have 1,000,000 deaths by about 9/25. The new deaths for this period were 38,055, which gives a 7-day daily average of 5,436, down from 5,717. The mortality rate is 4.26% (851,839/20,012,523), lower than last time (4.47% (813,784/18,202,448)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 2.10% (38,053/1,810,075), lower than for the previous period (2.22% (40,016/1,806,587)).

Rates of increase for both cases and deaths were smaller than last time for both the world and the US. New case rate increases went up for both the US and the world. Overall mortality rates continue to decrease for both the world and the US.

Cases continue to surge in Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, Spain, France, Romania, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Ukraine and Iraq. And cases have surged in recent weeks in Israel. India set the record of most new cases in 1 day for any country with 78,761 and the infection numbers continue to get worse there.

[rhd]

More CDC shenangigans:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scnShiL0FzU

Get ready to do mass distribution of a vaccine by Nov. 1st? 2 days before the election??? A national health care organization is supposed to be doing their best to protect the health of the nation's citizens, not to further the political agenda of the executive branch, or of any other gov't branch or any other entity. My opinion of the CDC now is not quite as bad as that of the WHO but it's trending in that direction.

And FAuci says he expects the US will have a safe, effective vaccine by the end of the year. I dont believe that either. I hope that I'm wrong.

And only 260 cases and 1 death traced to the Sturgis motorcycle meet-up? If there are as few as that, that is truly a divine miracle.

[GwynnInTheHall]

More CDC shenangigans:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scnShiL0FzU

Get ready to do mass distribution of a vaccine by Nov. 1st? 2 days before the election??? A national health care organization is supposed to be doing their best to protect the health of the nation's citizens, not to further the political agenda of the executive branch, or of any other gov't branch or any other entity. My opinion of the CDC now is not quite as bad as that of the WHO but it's trending in that direction.

And FAuci says he expects the US will have a safe, effective vaccine by the end of the year. I dont believe that either. I hope that I'm wrong.

And only 260 cases and 1 death traced to the Sturgis motorcycle meet-up? If there are as few as that, that is truly a divine miracle.

Does anyone really believe the numbers coming out ever since the white house took over covid reports.

I know I don't

[rhd]

More good news re: vaccines:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-oQI2RoXPI&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell

This video has helped change my thinking re: CV-19 vaccines. Previously, I thought that perhaps anti-viral drugs might be more influential than vaccines in ending this pandemic. That's because typically it takes years to develop safe, effective vaccines and because there have been promising results w certain anti-virals so far, in particular remdesivir in combination w other drugs such as clofazimine (sp?). E.g., AIDS, which appeared 35-40 years ago, is caused by a virus and we still dont have a vaccine for it. But, whereas AIDS used to be a death sentence, we now are able to control it very well w anti-virals.

But this video says that if things keep going well we could begin distribution of a safe, effective vaccine by the end of October. The video is by John Campbell, a New Zealand doctor. I've posted a few videos by him before and I find him to be very impressive. It's long but if you want to know more in detail about this subject I recommend watching the whole thing. He says there are 3 main vaccines that appear very promising and that are expected to be available soon: 1) Oxford/AstraZeneca, which is from the UK and Sweden; 2) Moderna, from the US; 3) Pfizer/BionTech, from the US and Germany. AstraZeneca is based on an adenovirus, which is old, proven technology. The other 2 are based on RNA, a completely new technology. The AstraZeneca vaccine is expected to be ready for widespread worldwide distribution by late October. Moderna is expected by the end of the year, according to Fauci. The Pfizer vaccine is expected also by the end of October. He said he would expect results of the Phase 3 trials of 1 or more of these vaccines to be published sometime this month.

Anyway, this doctor is very excited and optimistic about these and now so am I, particularly AstraZeneca. And the CDC's statement urging readiness for mass distribution of a vaccine by Nov. 1 apparently does have a valid basis. But it was still disturbing. (In another video, Dr. Campbell says he doesnt think the AstraZeneca vaccine will be the one distributed in the US by Nov 1. I dont know why he said this).

[revo]

More CDC shenangigans:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scnShiL0FzU

Get ready to do mass distribution of a vaccine by Nov. 1st? 2 days before the election??? A national health care organization is supposed to be doing their best to protect the health of the nation's citizens, not to further the political agenda of the executive branch, or of any other gov't branch or any other entity. My opinion of the CDC now is not quite as bad as that of the WHO but it's trending in that direction.

And FAuci says he expects the US will have a safe, effective vaccine by the end of the year. I dont believe that either. I hope that I'm wrong.

And only 260 cases and 1 death traced to the Sturgis motorcycle meet-up? If there are as few as that, that is truly a divine miracle.

Truly terrible that Dopey has made this entire health crisis political. He should drink a gallon of covid and burn in hell.

[rhd]

Truly terrible that Dopey has made this entire health crisis political. He should drink a gallon of covid and burn in hell.

But read my post from this morning.

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 8/31 at 7:46 AM, exactly 7 days ago. Mortality rate is figured using the current death total divided by the total cases from the update 3 weeks ago (8/17):

- 6,460,421 cases in the US, up from 6,175,008, an increase of 4.62% which is a smaller increase than last time (5.10%). The new cases for this period were 285.413 which gives a 7-day daily average of 40,773, down from 42,959. A comparison w last period's new cases (300,713) gives a new cases increase rate of 0.949, lower than that of the last update (0.981).
- 193,253 deaths in the US, up from 187,227, an increase of 3.22% which is a smaller increase than last time (3.67%). At this rate of increase, the US projects to have 200,000 deaths by sometime on 9/14. The new deaths for this period were 6,026 which gives a 7-day daily average of 861, down from 946. The mortality rate is 3.47% (193,253/5,567,765), lower than last time (3.60% (187,227/5,200,313)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 1.64% (6,026/367,452), slightly lower than last time (1.71% (6,622/386,329)).
- 27,289,930 cases worldwide, up from 25,396,341, an increase of 7.46% which is a lesser increase than last time (7.63%). The new cases for this period were 1,893,589, which gives a 7-day daily average of 270,513, up from 257,305. A comparison w last period's new cases (1,801,137) gives a new cases increase rate of 1.051, which is higher than last time (1.022).
- 894,204 deaths worldwide, up from 851,839, an increase of 4.97% which is a larger increase than last time (4.68%). At this rate of increase, the world projects to have 1,000,000 deaths by about 9/24. The new deaths for this period were 42,365, which gives a 7-day daily average of 6,052, up from 5,436. The mortality rate is 4.10% (894,204/21,833,432), lower than last time (4.26% (851,839/20,012,523)). The rate for the week's new deaths is 2.33% (42,365/1,820,909), higher than for the previous period (2.10% (38,053/1,810,075)).

New case rate increases went down for the US but went up for the world. New case and death increases and mortality rates continue to go down almost every week for both the US and the world so unless they go up I wont report these going forward. For this update, the world's death increase got higher and the current week's mortality rate got higher. This was due in part to a massive amount of reported deaths in Ecuador and Bolivia all at one time.

Cases continue to surge in Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia, Mexico, Spain, France, Romania, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Ukraine, Iraq and Israel. And cases have surged in recent weeks in Morocco. India again set the record of most new cases in 1 day for any country with 90,632 and it now has the 2nd highest number of cases of any country, passing Brazil. It may take 2-3 months or so but it looks like it also will pass the US.

[rhd]

Dr. John Campbell has a couple recent videos describing more substances that can reduce the mortality and seriousness of CV-19 infections. I said before that he is from New Zealand but actually he is in the UK:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5fKWr_Dx1A&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell

This video has 4 topics that are very worthwhile learning about but the one I'll focus on is the last one (beginning at 21:08 - lasts about 7 mins) which is about the efficacy of steroids in reducing CV-19 sickness. It's a study of 1703 critically ill patients from 12 countries over several months. The steroids administered were either dexamethasone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone. The death rates of the steroid groups of patients ranged from 29-32% (methylprednisolone results were inconclusive) whereas the rates of the control groups were 40-41.4%. He said these numbers were very convincing that these steroids reduce the mortality of severe CV-19 patients. And these steroids are very inexpensive. He notes that these steroids must be prescribed by doctors and should never be taken outside a competent doctor's care.

The 2nd video is about Vitamin D:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Ks9fUh2k8&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell

This was from a Spanish study of about 76 hospital patients. 50 were given Vitamin D and the control group was not. Only 1 Vit. D pt needed the ICU whereas half of the control group required ICU. No Vit D pts died whereas 2 of the control group died. The Vitamin D administered was a very high dose and was a special form (calcifediol) that was already "activated", whereas the Vit D capsules you could buy at a store require about 7 days for the liver and kidneys to activate them. Altho this was a small sample, he was very impressed by the results because the statistical significance was very high (99.99%) and he thought the study was very well done. Obviously, more and larger trials need to be done. He was very critical of the WHO, CDC and other major health organizations for not having done large-scale clinical trials of Vitamin D up to this point. Vitamin D is cheap and readily available over the counter and he expressed that this could be a game-changer for combatting CV-19.