Corona Virus

[The Feral Slasher]

I've had this thought for a while that a massive number of Americans have already been infected and recovered and dont know it.

That doesnt seem consistent with any data i have seen, i don't see how this could be true. It would be great news if it was though

[Ken]

I've had this thought for a while that a massive number of Americans have already been infected and recovered and dont know it. Like you said, the virus likely got here much earlier than we thought. My wife and I were both dealing with bronchitis for weeks in late January through Feb, I had the strangest dry cough for a while.

That theory was going around on facebook and already debunked a couple times right? Isn't that a psychological issue where a large portion of the population is sick with some bug every year, and as soon as some new virus is in the news a percentage assumes that they had it?

The lack of deaths from the "early coronavirus" pretty much rules out that conspiracy theory doesn't it?

[umjewman]

That doesnt seem consistent with any data i have seen, i don't see how this could be true. It would be great news if it was though

I think I may have had it in early March. I woke up on a Saturday morning and felt like I was hit with a ton of bricks. Had the chills and a fever with a pretty bad cough. I was sick for about a week (the cough lingered a bit longer), so it might have just been an ordinary cold (although I do not get fevers very often), but given the timing and the fact that I was all over NYC in the days preceding it, I'm believing I may have had it. No way to know for sure, but I don't think it's crazy to suspect that there are people who have had it and don't know it. I don't know if the number is "massive" but it wouldn't surprise me if there was a decent number of people who did have it. The flip side of course is what gcstomp said that there are very likely many deaths in the last few months which were not classified as corona deaths. Maybe those numbers just cancel out.

[The Feral Slasher]

I think I may have had it in early March. I woke up on a Saturday morning and felt like I was hit with a ton of bricks. Had the chills and a fever with a pretty bad cough. I was sick for about a week (the cough lingered a bit longer), so it might have just been an ordinary cold (although I do not get fevers very often), but given the timing and the fact that I was all over NYC in the days preceding it, I'm believing I may have had it. No way to know for sure, but I don't think it's crazy to suspect that there are people who have had it and don't know it. I don't know if the number is "massive" but it wouldn't surprise me if there was a decent number of people who did have it. The flip side of course is what gcstomp said that there are very likely many deaths in the last few months which were not classified as corona deaths. Maybe those numbers just cancel out.

There are certainly many people who have had it and where never confirmed. What i cant figure out is how it could be a massive number from months ago with no surge in deaths or hospitilizations. And apparently no exponential growth in cases

[Ken]

There are certainly many people who have had it and where never confirmed. What i cant figure out is how it could be a massive number from months ago with no surge in deaths or hospitilizations

Or how the initial cases in the US all were travel related? Yeah, the reason you can't figure it out is because it's just a conspiracy theory.

[rhd]

100,000 deaths worldwide now

[swampdragon]

Greetings from Northern New Jersey

I live in Essex County and work in Bergen - both have populations of around 900,000 people
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/...il-9-2020.html

The testing numbers are way under - you just cant get tested, so if/when you get it (or something similar) you just stay at home - maybe use telemedicine with a dr. at best. This concept of testing centers at walgreens and that anyone can get tested is just a flat out lie
250 tests are available 3 days a week at the drive through testing center - there are 900,000 people in the county https://patch.com/new-jersey/newarkn...avirus-testing

I haven't been out of the house for 28 days now - except to walk around the block. When I go out we there just aren't many people out there and I live in a city of 30k people. The few restaurants wait for 2-3 customers and many are selling groceries too,
Getting groceries requires going to the supermarket and hoping people stay the hell away - and cashiers have masks, gloves and plexiglass shields - no time to price shop - if they have close take it - no paper goods and cleaning supplies bare rare
Instacart, prime, fresh direct, local deliver etc are non-existent - all spots are filled - I even try in the middle of the night - it isnt happening - some people have been ordering from high end restaurant suppliers - you can get $250 bucks worth of foie gras much easier than black beans

I still teach online everyday but this week was "spring break". I posted that students should go here https://artsandculture.google.com/st...vRHV70gQ?hl=en and not be a barney, practice these phrases https://www.wavetribe.com/blogs/surf...and-surf-slang
(and study engineering too)
I have no idea how we are going to get them back in academic mode after a 9 day break.

OK - back to grading and curriculum writing

stay safe and way from each other

[DMT]

Ezra Klein with a sobering review of the next steps being proposed.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

[cardboardbox]

That theory was going around on facebook and already debunked a couple times right? Isn't that a psychological issue where a large portion of the population is sick with some bug every year, and as soon as some new virus is in the news a percentage assumes that they had it?

The lack of deaths from the "early coronavirus" pretty much rules out that conspiracy theory doesn't it?

Its just a thought I had for quite a while last month, not sure why you call it a conspiracy theory. Is that what you call any idea you dont agree with? Early deaths in Jan or Feb may have simply been misdiagnosed.

[The Feral Slasher]

Ezra Klein with a sobering review of the next steps being proposed.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/202...n-unemployment

I saw the proposal for testing everyone every two weeks. If we find a way to do that, and it is effective, it would be amazing.

[GwynnInTheHall]

I find it very telling that it's consistently the conservative/Trump supporters who continually suggest this thing isn't as bad as the doctors say it is, or find ways to dilute the numbers so they're not as bad.

Not surprising at all.

[Sour Masher]

Its just a thought I had for quite a while last month, not sure why you call it a conspiracy theory. Is that what you call any idea you dont agree with? Early deaths in Jan or Feb may have simply been misdiagnosed.

Yes, this came up with an article GITH posted with the same theory for Cali. I don't doubt we have deaths from COVID-19 that have no been counted as such, and this may have been here a bit earlier than we thought. But the idea it was here months ago, with the spread rate we are seeing now, it isn't possible. We'd have seen overwhelmed hospitals and massive spikes in deaths that we just didn't see. So, yeah, it may have been here a couple of weeks earlier than we thought, but it it had been months, we would have noticed.

[cardboardbox]

There are certainly many people who have had it and where never confirmed. What i cant figure out is how it could be a massive number from months ago with no surge in deaths or hospitilizations. And apparently no exponential growth in cases

We have about 500k confirmed infections right? Would another 1.5 million count as a massive amount of unconfirmed cases? I was thinking higher, 5+ million.

[GwynnInTheHall]

Ezra Klein with a sobering review of the next steps being proposed.

https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/202...n-unemployment

Interesting plan, never will happen.

[cardboardbox]

Yes, this came up with an article GITH posted with the same theory for Cali. I don't doubt we have deaths from COVID-19 that have no been counted as such, and this may have been here a bit earlier than we thought. But the idea it was here months ago, with the spread rate we are seeing now, it isn't possible. We'd have seen overwhelmed hospitals and massive spikes in deaths that we just didn't see. So, yeah, it may have been here a couple of weeks earlier than we thought, but it it had been months, we would have noticed.

I think its reasonable to theorize the virus was here and spreading in January.