Corona Virus

[Ken]

The director of the CDC thinks the US death toll will be "much, much lower" than previous projections, because social distancing is working.

Odd, social distancing was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, it's not going to pull the actual death toll of the virus down, unless we plan to keep up the distancing until a vaccine is ready.

[umjewman]

Odd, social distancing was to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed, it's not going to pull the actual death toll of the virus down, unless we plan to keep up the distancing until a vaccine is ready.

If hospitals are not overwhelmed, they might be able to treat people who might otherwise not get adequate treatment because of lack of ventilators or other resources? That could conceivably lower the death toll.

[Sour Masher]

If hospitals are not overwhelmed, they might be able to treat people who might otherwise not get adequate treatment because of lack of ventilators or other resources? That could conceivably lower the death toll.

Yeah, that was always the plan, I think. IDK. We are starting to see the beginnging of a down turn, but it still doesn't look to me like we will end up with under 100k deaths from this, even from this first wave, and it is very unlikely this will be the last wave. And that isn't even factoring in the cases/deaths that are not being reported in these numbers due to lack of testing.

In any event, I hope he is right. It would be great, and surprising, if this thing ends up not killing 100s of thousands.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Testing champions, to date:
New York, 165 tests per 10,000 residents
Louisiana, 139
Washington, 115
Vermont, 114
Massachusetts, 110
District of Columbia, 106
Utah, 104
New Mexico, 104
New Jersey, 100
Hawaii, 98
North Dakota, 95
Alaska, 94

U.S. Average = 58

Testing laggards:
North Carolina, 39
Iowa, 37
Nebraska, 36
Virginia, 34
Oklahoma, 34
California, 33
Kansas, 31
Alabama, 30
Georgia, 30
Texas, 29
Puerto Rico, 14

[Ken]

If hospitals are not overwhelmed, they might be able to treat people who might otherwise not get adequate treatment because of lack of ventilators or other resources? That could conceivably lower the death toll.

Right, but I was not aware they were assuming that the hospitals would be overwhelmed before? Were they? That's the only way social distances decreases death count, if you were previously assuming that hospitals couldn't handle the load (and even then, how would you estimate the deaths in that case with no relevant precedent)

[Kevin Seitzer]

It does seem like there is some evidence that the growth in new cases per day is plateauing on a nationwide level. There is no area in the country that is growing as fast as New York was a couple weeks ago.

Detroit and New Orleans aren't under control yet, and I'm eager to see their updates later today to get a better sense of trends in each city, but they aren't exploding like they were a week ago, either. Pennsylvania is probably the most concerning state in terms of growth of new cases right now. There's a cluster of states in the South and mid-Atlantic, from Pennsylvania, through Delaware, Maryland, DC, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina that is growing faster than the nation as a whole, but I don't see anything in any of them that approaches the growth rates we were seeing a couple weeks ago.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Pennsylvania, new cases per day, last 14 days:
256
341
529
578
533
562
696
853
1086
1203
1225
1936
1137 (weekend report)
1536
1353 (incomplete, reported so far today)

[umjewman]

Right, but I was not aware they were assuming that the hospitals would be overwhelmed before? Were they? That's the only way social distances decreases death count, if you were previously assuming that hospitals couldn't handle the load (and even then, how would you estimate the deaths in that case with no relevant precedent)

I can't really know how they calculate estimated death tolls. But, I think that they were assuming that hospitals would be overwhelmed which is why they implemented the social distancing in the first place. As far as how they would estimate, I am way out of my element in that regard.

So, in conclusion, I'll just stick with the tried and true response to all Ken posts. And that is, "I disagree."

[Gregg]

Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot stated:

According to data from the city, African Americans compose 30 percent of the population, but make up 52 percent of the city's COVID-19 cases. African Americans also make up 72 percent of the city's deaths from COVID-19.

[Kevin Seitzer]

New cases the last 14 days in Louisiana:
219
408
508
442
568
227 (weekend report)
484
1211
1186
2683
1066
2314
526 (weekend report)
1857

I don't see the drop yet, but maybe it's started to flatten? Too early to tell, I think. Louisiana has done a relatively good job with testing (14 tests per thousand residents, second only to New York), so it's one of the best states to track progress.

Today's report of new cases: 1467

So...? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Maybe it's flattening? The average of 1637 new cases in the first two days this week is flat with the average of 1692 new cases per day the last five days of last week. It's definitely encouraging compared to the growth we saw (i.e., new cases quadrupled) from the week before that.

[Kevin Seitzer]

With the daily report in from Michigan, I think it's still too early to say whether the new case curve is flattening there.

New cases per day in Michigan, last 14 days:
503
561
800
996
836
1008
1119
1711
1466
1953
1479
1495
1503
1749 (3pm report today)

Michigan is below average on testing rates (44 per 10,000 people), which makes the picture cloudier there, too.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Just spitballing some math here, if we have another two weeks at the plateau of 30,000 new cases per day, and then ramp down for three weeks after to a level where we have maybe 1000-2000 new cases per day, and we maintain the current shutdown status indefinitely after that until we get a vaccine/treatment, we might end up with 50,000 deaths in the U.S.

Current death toll 12,000
Deaths from those ~60,000 currently hospitalized with Covid-19, let's estimate 15% of them die: 9,000 dead
New detected infections next two weeks, 30k *14 days = 420k * current CFR of 3.2% = 13,400 dead
New detected infection the following three weeks, let's assume will follow roughly the inverse of the current curve, 380k infections * 3.2% mortality = 12,000 dead
And then 50 weeks of 1-2,000 new detected infections = maybe 75,000 * 3.2% = 2400 dead

As awful as that scenario is, I think we'd all take it over removing the shutdown prematurely and allowing uncontrolled spread and several hundred thousand to a couple million deaths.

I don't know how reasonable my estimates are, but I do feel better that there are some signs that social distancing and statewide shutdowns are helping.

[rhd]

If you want to see an inspirational success story amid all the massive failures around the world in this CV-19 crisis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaOAxS8L7aY

Taiwan, a country of 24 mil, has only 376 cases and 5 deaths!!! Masks!

[Sour Masher]

Just spitballing some math here, if we have another two weeks at the plateau of 30,000 new cases per day, and then ramp down for three weeks after to a level where we have maybe 1000-2000 new cases per day, and we maintain the current shutdown status indefinitely after that until we get a vaccine/treatment, we might end up with 50,000 deaths in the U.S.

Current death toll 12,000
Deaths from those ~60,000 currently hospitalized with Covid-19, let's estimate 15% of them die: 9,000 dead
New detected infections next two weeks, 30k *14 days = 420k * current CFR of 3.2% = 13,400 dead
New detected infection the following three weeks, let's assume will follow roughly the inverse of the current curve, 380k infections * 3.2% mortality = 12,000 dead
And then 50 weeks of 1-2,000 new detected infections = maybe 75,000 * 3.2% = 2400 dead

As awful as that scenario is, I think we'd all take it over removing the shutdown prematurely and allowing uncontrolled spread and several hundred thousand to a couple million deaths.

I don't know how reasonable my estimates are, but I do feel better that there are some signs that social distancing and statewide shutdowns are helping.

I think there is no way that Trump and the economic bulls like Navarro in his admin will let the economy stay shut down after the downturn. We will open back up, wait for another spike, MAYBE shut down again, depending on how far along we are on a vaccine or other treatments at that point, but more likely we will just have more masks made by then and recommendations to wear them in public to keep numbers down. That's my prediction. What we are doing now will buy us some time. Expecting a sustained shut down is going to lead to disappointment, and may be unnecessary, if we have masks and other treatment options.

[The Feral Slasher]

I think there is no way that Trump and the economic pulls like Navarro in his admin will let the economy stay shut down after the downturn. We will open back up, wait for another spike, MAYBE shut down again, depending on how far along we are on a vaccine or other treatments at that point, but more likely we will just have more masks made by then and recommendations to wear them in public to keep numbers down. That's my prediction. What we are going now will buy us some time. Expecting a sustained shut down is going to lead to disappointment, and may be unnecessary, if we have masks and other treatment options.

We will likely go from a handful of cases to more than a million in under 3 months. I really hope we have a good plan when we try to get going again.