Corona Virus

[Kevin Seitzer]

The death per capita numbers you used, I was thinking that yes places like NYC, Seattle and SF/LA are very populace, but they are also major international travel hubs which might contribute to the Death Per Capita numbers. I'm not good at analytics, so I was just asking--I may have missed it though.

I don't have any specific data on that. I do suppose it may have contributed to how early some of those places were infected, but in terms of overall case rate, California is actually below average in the U.S. And the early outbreak in Seattle/King County, Washington, was driven by the Life Care Center nursing home.

[Kevin Seitzer]

I see after reading some follow-up that she is predicting that we have already seen the peak in new cases in NYC/New Orleans/Detroit and that she expects their peak in mortality in a week. I find that even harder to believe, given that Washington state has yet to see its peak in mortality.

I also don't know what gives her the idea that any of the three areas she mentioned have already seen their peak in new cases. I would want to see a downward trend in new cases for at least 3-4 non-weekend days before I'd believe we had seen a peak. New York set a record for new cases yesterday. Michigan set a record for new cases the day before. Louisiana's high in new cases was three days ago, dropped two days ago, and resurged yesterday. Washington state has been flat in new cases for basically nine days (500-700 new cases on non-weekend days). I guess you can call that a "peak"? It's not really a true peak if it never goes back down, is it?

New cases the last 14 days in Louisiana:
219
408
508
442
568
227 (weekend report)
484
1211
1186
2683
1066
2314
526 (weekend report)
1857

I don't see the drop yet, but maybe it's started to flatten? Too early to tell, I think. Louisiana has done a relatively good job with testing (14 tests per thousand residents, second only to New York), so it's one of the best states to track progress.

[Moonlight J]

Now, you are correct that the GOP-led House in Wisconsin killed that due to a combination of political animus (the Speaker and Governor detest one another, like to a Hamilton-Burr level) and political calculus (the GOP knows they have more in-person voters than the Dems). There's only one race that matters, and that's for State Supreme Court, so I have little doubt Justice Kelly was pushing for in-person voting hard.

Yea, that's what I was referring to. Actions in the past 3-4 days have been lopsided and confounding given the circumstances.

[Sour Masher]

The Gates Foundation has funded a vaccine that has gotten approval for human testing. They hope to have 1 million shots available by the end of 2020. That is faster than previous reporting suggested was possible: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/hea...01f?li=BBnb7Kz

[revo]

Gov. Evers issues an executive order postponing the Wisconsin Primary until June 9.

[revo]

Boris Johnson in critical condition with coronavirus and was moved to the ICU

[Moonlight J]

Gov. Evers issues an executive order postponing the Wisconsin Primary until June 9.

given he admitted he couldn't do so within the constraints of state law just a few days ago, the appeal would be a slamdunk case, no?

[nots]

given he admitted he couldn't do so within the constraints of state law just a few days ago, the appeal would be a slamdunk case, no?

Smart play by Evers. Even if the courts rule against him, he has effectively delayed the election until the virus passes. Well played

[frae]

Smart play by Evers. Even if the courts rule against him, he has effectively delayed the election until the virus passes. Well played

https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-wisconsin-primary-election-supreme-court-20200406-bzrppmmapnhg3aatqo2d4c5yza-story.html

How much time does this really buy him? Maybe enough to build public opinion and pressure the legislature? It does appear it will almost certainly get overturned. I had thought the R's big objection here was with extending absentee balloting, but now I see they don't want the election moved at all.


“The clerks of this state should stand ready to proceed with the election,” Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, said in a joint statement. “The governor’s executive order is clearly an unconstitutional overreach.”

So they weren't just out to prevent the extension of absentee ballots they want to go right ahead and risk public health. Anyway, this move buys Evers time for public opinion to put more pressure on the Republicans to be concerned with public saftey.

Some more quotes from the whole article...

"Amid the pandemic, thousands of poll workers — many of them elderly and more at risk of dying from the highly contagious COVID-19 — have said they won’t work Tuesday’s election, and the governor had directed the Wisconsin National Guard to help staff election sites. Numerous elected leaders, including longtime Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, have urged voters not to go to the polls and instead try to vote absentee.

“You think about the city of Milwaukee being down to five polling places there and there could be thousands of people at each polling place. That makes no sense,” Evers said. “It is important that we do this. I’m fearful of the possibility of the transmission of the virus at the polls. We follow the science.”"


"After the federal judge declined to reschedule the election, Evers then called the special session for Saturday, requesting that lawmakers vote to shutter polling places, mail every voter in the state a ballot by May 19 and extend the deadline for local clerks to receive those ballots until May 26. That move effectively would have delayed the election by more than a month and made exclusively vote-by-mail.

When that proposal failed, Evers decided to issue Monday’s order even though he previously had said he didn’t have the power to do so."

[Moonlight J]

Smart play by Evers. Even if the courts rule against him, he has effectively delayed the election until the virus passes. Well played

WI SCOTUS just blocked the shut down order....so all systems go tomorrow?

[frae]

WI SCOTUS just blocked the shut down order....so all systems go tomorrow?

Yes it looks like it. The R's in the legislature praised the decision and I don't see what other recourse Evers has? I can't believe they expect people to go vote tomorrow, the older people who typically work the voting stations can't really be expected to go do this? Is there any way this backfires on the R's and their older base doesn't get out to vote?

[The Feral Slasher]

Yes it looks like it. The R's in the legislature praised the decision and I don't see what other recourse Evers has? I can't believe they expect people to go vote tomorrow, the older people who typically work the voting stations can't really be expected to go do this? Is there any way this backfires on the R's and their older base doesn't get out to vote?

Cant they declare a state of emergency or something ? This is madness

[GwynnInTheHall]

So, today I had to venture down South to Baja. I was amazed how easy it was to get down and back and kind of not surprised that very few were sheltered in place or even closing unessential businesses right now.

Mexico is a different animal, No work and you might not eat that day--so i can understand the Ceramic shops et all being open for business and even the vendors in the line being all gathered together.

Still, it's going to be heartbreaking when Mexico is the next country to explode with the Virus.

[rhd]

Another stats update as of 7:46 AM today. Last stats were from 4/4 at 7:46 AM, exactly 3 days ago. The site I'm using now is a live stream so I can rewind the stream back to almost the exact time that I want so I can make the updates exactly 3 days apart now. I will use 3 days because the rates have been doubling about this often:

- 368,453 cases in US, up from 278,492, a 32.3% increase. That's a larger increase but in a longer period of time (29%), so this represents a decline in the rate of increase. The US now has over 2.5 times the # of cases of any other country. We project to pass 1 million cases by at least 4/11. The states w the highest # of cases per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Michigan, and DC. The states w the highest # of tests per capita, in order, are New York, Louisiana, Washington state and Massachusetts. As of 4/6, the US has a testing rate of 5355 per million. For comparison, S. Korea's rate is 8996 per million. But the US's rate seems to be increasing rapidly.
- 11,007 deaths in US, up from 7403, a 48.7% increase which is a larger increase than last time but in a longer period of time (44%), so this represents a decline in the rate of increase. Wyoming still is the only state that has not yet reported a death and American Samoa is the only territory w/o a case. The US mortality rate is now 2.99%, which is higher than 3 days ago, (2.65%). The states w the highest # of deaths per capita, in order, are New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Michigan, Connecticut, and Washington state.
- 1,360,472 cases worldwide, up from 1,133,492, a 20.0% increase which is a slightly smaller increase than last time (21%) and in a longer amount of time so this represents an even sharper decline in the rate of increase. 1,278,732 of these are outside of mainland China, up from 1,051,853, a 21.6% increase, which is a slightly lesser rate of increase than last time (23%), and in a longer amount of time so this represents an even sharper decline in the rate of increase.
- 76,088 deaths worldwide, up from 60,375, a 26.0% increase which is a slightly smaller increase than last time (28%), and in a longer amount of time so this represents an even sharper decline in the rate of increase. 72,757 deaths are outside of China, up from 57,049, a 27.5% increase which is a slightly smaller increase than last time (30%), and in a longer amount of time so this represents an even sharper decline in the rate of increase. Mortality rates continue to rise. The world mortality rate is 5.59%, up from 5.33%. Italy's mortality rate is 12.49%, up from 12.25%, Spain's is 9.82%, up from 9.42%, France's is 9.09%, up from 7.92% and UK's is 10.41%, up from 9.45%. Germany's is still low, 1.76% but up from 1.40%.
- 212 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 1 other (North Korea), up from 208. There are only 15 countries, 11 of which are island republics, that have neither reported nor have suspected deaths: Lesotho, Yemen, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Comoros, Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu. The vast majority of countries have at least 1 death, w Malta having the most cases w no reported deaths, 293.

Rates of increase seem to have dipped across the board. Are we finally seeing the beginning of the flattening of the curve?

[Sour Masher]

The director of the CDC thinks the US death toll will be "much, much lower" than previous projections, because social distancing is working. He seems to think this will come in well under the 100k WH model, which I find hard to believe. Others are hoping he isn't encouraging complacency. I hope he is right and the social distancing has flattened this more than many could have hoped for. The next week or two will tell: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/cd...hcx?li=BBnb7Kz