This is one of the twitter accounts I have been following. Good news, since his earlier estimate was 40-70% infection. My dad is 87 and takes care of my mom who is 85. It is a hard conversation to warn them of the risks and explain why it might not be good to visit them so often until there is better information and why they shouldn't see other people since elderly folks are at much higher risk.
Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.
Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.
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