Corona Virus

[The Feral Slasher]

This is one of the twitter accounts I have been following. Good news, since his earlier estimate was 40-70% infection. My dad is 87 and takes care of my mom who is 85. It is a hard conversation to warn them of the risks and explain why it might not be good to visit them so often until there is better information and why they shouldn't see other people since elderly folks are at much higher risk.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464

Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.

[Ken]

This is one of the twitter accounts I have been following. Good news, since his earlier estimate was 40-70% infection. My dad is 87 and takes care of my mom who is 85. It is a hard conversation to warn them of the risks and explain why it might not be good to visit them so often until there is better information and why they shouldn't see other people since elderly folks are at much higher risk.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464

Because I am now less certain of where the R0 will end up (and how it may vary geographically) I am going to revise downward the range of outcomes I consider plausible to 20%-60% of adults infected. This involves subjectivity about what range of R0 may turn out to be true.

I think your low end is too high. 20% is well above the lower bound IMO

[The Feral Slasher]

I think your low end is too high. 20% is well above the lower bound IMO

Not my estimate, it is from the guy who tweeted. But i hope u are wrong.

[Ken]

Not my estimate, it is from the guy who tweeted. But i hope u are wrong.

Lol, oops that's the same mistake as the 49-1

But seriously 20% can't be the low end. 20% of the population is over 1 billion infected. We are still in the 90K range. That kind of projection is akin to opening day baseball stat projections

The low end has to be far less than 20% to be reasonable IMO as we are seeing the potential of the China outbreak tapering off. Granted, the high end can be large, which is the scary part.

[The Feral Slasher]

Lol, oops that's the same mistake as the 49-1

But seriously 20% can't be the low end. 20% of the population is over 1 billion infected. We are still in the 90K range. That kind of projection is akin to opening day baseball stat projections

The low end has to be far less than 20% to be reasonable IMO as we are seeing the potential of the China outbreak tapering off. Granted, the high end can be large, which is the scary part.

Ok, now I hope you are right !

[The Feral Slasher]

I think your low end is too high. 20% is well above the lower bound IMO

I think I messed that up. Anyway, i certainly hope less than 20% are infected.

[Ken]

I think I messed that up. Anyway, i certainly hope less than 20% are infected.

I'd love to see the math behind this guy's calculations. I wish he'd publish them. Until/unless he does, it seems like junk

[The Feral Slasher]

I think your low end is too high. 20% is well above the lower bound IMO

It's interesting to read some of the comments in the thread. To keep it below 20% might take lifestyle changes that people don't really want to make. And they should probably happen sooner rather than later.

[The Feral Slasher]

I'd love to see the math behind this guy's calculations. I wish he'd publish them. Until/unless he does, it seems like junk

well, like anything it probably has a lot of assumptions baked in. Are people ready to stay in their houses and avoid social contact to stop the spread ? At this point it doesn't seem like it. I'll link another interesting twitter feed that is local to Seattle when I have a chance

[The Feral Slasher]

well, like anything it probably has a lot of assumptions baked in. Are people ready to stay in their houses and avoid social contact to stop the spread ? At this point it doesn't seem like it. I'll link another interesting twitter feed that is local to Seattle when I have a chance

https://twitter.com/trvrb?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Trevor Bedford in case the link doesn't work. I am not smart enough to know if he or Marc Lipsitch are correct. Anyway, he has spent a lot more time than I have, and is much more knowledgeable and suspects there are hundreds of undetected cases in my city. Let's hope he is wrong

[Ken]

It's interesting to read some of the comments in the thread. To keep it below 20% might take lifestyle changes that people don't really want to make. And they should probably happen sooner rather than later.

But we already see it occurring really - in China they have quarantined and the spread has tapered off. And all around I'm reading about conferences and events cancelled. In Italy they are playing soccer with no one in the stands. People are adjusting.

[The Feral Slasher]

But we already see it occurring really - in China they have quarantined and the spread has tapered off. And all around I'm reading about conferences and events cancelled. In Italy they are playing soccer with no one in the stands. People are adjusting.

Agreed. Not sure how much Americans and Europeans and going to voluntarily do this, or how their lifestyles compare to Chinese. Time will tell.

[The Feral Slasher]

But we already see it occurring really - in China they have quarantined and the spread has tapered off. And all around I'm reading about conferences and events cancelled. In Italy they are playing soccer with no one in the stands. People are adjusting.

I really hope you are right. Or that warmer weather helps out.

[The Feral Slasher]

https://twitter.com/trvrb?ref_src=tw...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Trevor Bedford in case the link doesn't work. I am not smart enough to know if he or Marc Lipsitch are correct. Anyway, he has spent a lot more time than I have, and is much more knowledgeable and suspects there are hundreds of undetected cases in my city. Let's hope he is wrong

But we already see it occurring really - in China they have quarantined and the spread has tapered off. And all around I'm reading about conferences and events cancelled. In Italy they are playing soccer with no one in the stands. People are adjusting.

Clearly if everyone stays in their home for a month then things will change....but is that going to happen?

[Ken]

Clearly if everyone stays in their home for a month then things will change....but is that going to happen?

It depends. I think the more it spreads, the more concerned people become, the more likely that they take the appropriate actions.

Hell I'd love to stay in my house for a month with my family. Staycations are the best