Corona Virus

[Kevin Seitzer]

[frae]

Today's I can't believe he doesn't know that or said that. Clearly has no idea what per capita means or what the numbers are. We are well behind many countries including South Korea. He does at the end of this clip say he didn't say anything about per capita I think, but the question was about per capita and he just avoids that and pushes straight ahead with his we have done the most test bit. You guys are better finding that data than me, but it looks like over the last 2 weeks or so we might be ahead of South Korea in raw tests now? But Trump missed the point of the question, we have 327 million people to South Korea's 51 million so we need to be doing better per capita.

Secondly claims Seoul has 38 million people. Seoul has about 9 million roughly. What is weirder is he didn't mix it up with South Korea's total population which is around 51 million. He just pulled a number out of his ass and said it as if he knew it.

[Kevin Seitzer]

We have done about 915,000 tests through yesterday. The latest numbers I can find for South Korea is about 400,000 tests.

[Ken]

We have done about 915,000 tests through yesterday. The latest numbers I can find for South Korea is about 400,000 tests.

Trump said in the news conference today that we passed 1M, was that just a rounding error?

[frae]

We have done about 915,000 tests through yesterday. The latest numbers I can find for South Korea is about 400,000 tests.

Thanks the best article i could find was from 5 days ago so I didn’t want to use it.

[Kevin Seitzer]

Trump said in the news conference today that we passed 1M, was that just a rounding error?

I didn't listen to the news conference. It's quite possible he has more updated numbers than I do. I'm taking my numbers from the various state department of health websites. Some states can lag up to a day or two in reporting various numbers.

Also, I'm counting tests that have come back as either positive or negative. Some states also report the total number of tests collected, pending analysis of the tests being completed. I don't know which number Trump was talking about, nor do I know very much at all about the totals from South Korea.

[nullnor]

i think it was very reckless for Trump to suggest the federal government was going to quarantine NY and then change his mind. as it wouldn't be legal. it's the sort of machination that causes a panic. it shows he has no foresight or thought about what he says or does except if it benefits himself politically. it was reckless to say such a thing at the height of emotions.

but it's going to happen again. the next state it happens in. will people hear it and start fleeing? is Trump going to say it again and then say i wasn't really sure, so forget about it... it's great you know, the defining tragedy in our lifetime and our boat has no oars or rudder except an each man for himself mentality from the captain and POTUS. what could possibly go wrong? i guess we'll find out.

[rhd]

Another update. Last stats were from 3/28 at 8:46 PM, almost exactly 2 days ago:

- 163,862 cases in US, up from 123,871, a 32% increase. That's a much smaller increase than last time (67%). Cases in Northern New Jersey and Connecticut seem to be increasing faster even than in New York. Rhode Island also has seen a sharp jump in cases.
- 3148 deaths in US, up from 2211, a 42% increase which is a much smaller increase than last time (106%). Only 2 states have not yet reported a death: Hawaii and Wyoming. The US mortality rate is now 1.92%, which is up from 1.63% 11 days ago.
- 783,334 cases worldwide, up from 661,986, a 18% increase which is a smaller increase than last time (32%). 701,829 of these are outside of mainland China, up from 580,768, a 21% increase, which is a smaller increase than last time (38%).
- 37,845 deaths worldwide, up from 30,873, a 23% increase which is a smaller increase than last time (38%). 34,541 deaths are outside of China, up from 28.578, a 21% increase which is a much smaller increase than last time (50%). Italy's mortality rate is 11.4%, up from 10.8%. Mortality rates of other western European countries continue to rise, also. Spain's is now 8.8%, France's is 6.8% and UK's is 6.4%. The world mortality rate is 4.83%.
- 204 countries/territories/etc. have confirmed cases w suspected cases in 1 other (North Korea), up from 202. There are only 20 countries, 12 of which are island republics, that have not reported deaths: Lesotho, South Sudan, Malawi, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Yemen, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Comoros, Kiribati, Marshall Is., Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Solomon Is., Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu.

Are the rates of increase finally slowing down? Hopefully. Watch out for places like India, tho.

[Kevin Seitzer]

One thing I have noticed, rhd, is that the reports of new cases tend to slow/stagnate over the weekend and pick back up early in the week. I've seen the slowing for three weekends in a row now, and the last two times Monday and Tuesday new cases more than made up for it. We'll see if that happens again. I hope not, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

[rhd]

One thing I have noticed, rhd, is that the reports of new cases tend to slow/stagnate over the weekend and pick back up early in the week. I've seen the slowing for three weekends in a row now, and the last two times Monday and Tuesday new cases more than made up for it. We'll see if that happens again. I hope not, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

Thanx, I'll keep that in mind.

[Gregg]

As of yesterday Illinois is reporting 30446 as tested. 5,057 positive, with 73 deaths. Deaths are included in the positive number.

This is form the IDPH website this morning.

One weird thing. Every place in the state that has any reporting of positive test have at least one death. The lowest was 5 with one death in LaSalle County.

[TranaGreg]

...
Secondly claims Seoul has 38 million people. Seoul has about 9 million roughly. What is weirder is he didn't mix it up with South Korea's total population which is around 51 million. He just pulled a number out of his ass and said it as if he knew it.
...

here's the source ... Wikipedia's Seoul page, the elevation is right next to the population line ...

Seoul Wikipedia.jpg

[revo]

i think it was very reckless for Trump to suggest the federal government was going to quarantine NY and then change his mind. as it wouldn't be legal. it's the sort of machination that causes a panic. it shows he has no foresight or thought about what he says or does except if it benefits himself politically. it was reckless to say such a thing at the height of emotions.

but it's going to happen again. the next state it happens in. will people hear it and start fleeing? is Trump going to say it again and then say i wasn't really sure, so forget about it... it's great you know, the defining tragedy in our lifetime and our boat has no oars or rudder except an each man for himself mentality from the captain and POTUS. what could possibly go wrong? i guess we'll find out.

He's been spouting nonsense then having smarter people walk it back since the day he took office.

[nullnor]

i'd still like to see the per capita statistics. it's simple math.

we were the most prepared country for a pandemic according to rankings. and we were pretty much hit last out of industrialized nations. yet we will possibly be hit the worst as far as overall infections. that says something. how does a country most prepared and hit last end up worst? i think the answer is obvious but i just wanted to say it. because we are a bunch of cowboys that refuse to listen. even if we had a president to listen to. if you were playing the game pandemic right now you'd say wow, the US really fucked up. we should've been the hardest to infect.

i still say, we are pretty spread out. we don't really have much public transportation systems because our cities aren't as close to each other as european cities. i don't know. even by nature and placement we should've done better. we had all the advantages but some how still blew it.

one organism. that's all it took. that tells you something is fundamentally wrong with our strategy. we should be able to do better. it's going to happen again. that's our lesson. but we won't learn from this. that's another one of the disheartening things. someday when this is over people will forget and it will happen again but even worse.

[Sour Masher]

i'd still like to see the per capita statistics. it's simple math.

we were the most prepared country for a pandemic according to rankings. and we were pretty much hit last out of industrialized nations. yet we will possibly be hit the worst as far as overall infections. that says something. how does a country most prepared and hit last end up worst? i think the answer is obvious but i just wanted to say it. because we are a bunch of cowboys that refuse to listen. even if we had a president to listen to. if you were playing the game pandemic right now you'd say wow, the US really fucked up. we should've been the hardest to infect.

i still say, we are pretty spread out. we don't really have much public transportation systems because our cities aren't as close to each other as european cities. i don't know. even by nature and placement we should've done better. we had all the advantages but some how still blew it.

one organism. that's all it took. that tells you something is fundamentally wrong with our strategy. we should be able to do better. it's going to happen again. that's our lesson. but we won't learn from this. that's another one of the disheartening things. someday when this is over people will forget and it will happen again but even worse.

Good points. I think a lot of why the US has been hit worse than any other countries is our late response to the infection, which allowed it to spread. But even after we responded, started testing and locking down, we still have yet to see the slowdown other countries have, despite the factors you point out that should help. Maybe we are worst than others in terms of following the necessary rules to stop this thing.

I'm reading projections that Italy, the country everyone looked to for how not to handle this thing may have already hit their peak and could be free of new cases by mid-May, yet we are still climbing. I guess the US is officially now the example for how not to respond to this virus. Although, it looks like Spain has a shot at catching us.