Corona Virus

[Sour Masher]

You MAGAts sure know how to burn.

Those who continue to defend this man and fail to see what a narcissistic, self-serving sociopath he is--I have no words for them.

[Sour Masher]

Fauci, who seems to be a well-respected expert, is pretty optimistic on the outcomes. He says we can go as high as 100,000 to 200,000 deaths, but we are trying to prevent that, and Trump says, I assume based on his experts, to expect a peak in the curve in about two weeks for the country. That worst case of 100-200k is about half of what my best case was based on the global evidence and projections. I'd say we will end up very lucky if we end up with mortality numbers that low.

I don't know what to make of their projections/models. I consider myself an optimist on this and even I thought 500k deaths was likely our best case based on the rate of infection and deaths we have been seeing early on. And the peak of the curve in two weeks is also faster by nearly a month than I'd have expected. Maybe they are assuming 100 cases of COVID-19 per reported ase as opposed to my 10-20. That would explain both their faster peak and their lower death counts.

If their models are right, and they are not lying to us about them, this could really end up only being about twice as bad as the worst flu season we've had in the last 50 years or so. IDK. Not there yet, but I hope they are right.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...Oyy?li=BBnb7Kz

[Judge Jude]

Sour Masher,
is this field an area of expertise for you? I don't know.

I understand all of the skepticism about Trump, obviously. but I don't really understand the multiple posters here coming up with their own numbers on projected death rates.

and I don't mean to be harsh - I just seriously don't understand it. maybe a form of coping ahead of possible worst outcomes, is that it?

I have no idea how it plays out, frankly, and can't even hazard a guess.

[Sour Masher]

Sour Masher,
is this field an area of expertise for you? I don't know.

I understand all of the skepticism about Trump, obviously. but I don't really understand the multiple posters here coming up with their own numbers on projected death rates.

and I don't mean to be harsh - I just seriously don't understand it. maybe a form of coping ahead of possible worst outcomes, is that it?

I have no idea how it plays out, frankly, and can't even hazard a guess.

I am no expert at all, and my estimates are more optimistic than most here, for two main reason: I assume that there are are least 10x the number of cases not reported as reported, so that means we are farther along and than the mortality rate is much lower than being reported. I also believe the vast majority of cases tested in the US are the sick and elderly, which skews mortality rates further. So, I look at Germany, since they seem to be testing everyone, and I see a mortality rate closer to 1% (less, but they go by all cases, not just resolved ones, so I figure in the 1% range is fair, if not under), and that is what I'm going by for here, and with the exponential spread we are seeing, I'm thinking at least 50-100 million infections int he US seems likely, which leaves you with 500k-1 million dead.

As far as where everyone is getting their numbers, including ones far worse than my estimates, it is a combination of estimates and models from credible medical sources that previously put ultimate infections rates globally in the 100s of millions or even billions and the mortality rate in the 2-6% and over range, as well as simple math from reported cases and mortality rates, which paint an even gloomier picture. There are dozens of recent articles that have said the mortality rate and the likely to worst outcomes for this are far worse than what we are just now haring from the WH. I could link a dozen of them now, but they are easy to find. Maybe they are all wrong or sensationalized to scare us into action and the WH models are the right ones. As I've said, I've always leaned toward the more optimistic projections, because it is my belief there are far more cases than are being reported, and I don't see that fully taken into account in a lot of the articles I have seen. Others can chime in on where they get their figures.

[Sour Masher]

Also, in addition to other seemingly credible sources that claim far worse outcomes, and the current numbers suggesting the same, there is, as you say, the issue of WH credibility. For weeks as FS was warning us that this thing was serious, Trump insisted it was nothing. He said this thing would go from 15 to 0 cases in short order. So, I do take what he says with a grain of salt, but by all accounts I have seen Fauci is a credible and trusted figure, so his estimate of 100k-200k dead as a worst case gives me hope, even though it does not jive with lots of other sources right now. Hope is a good thing, if it is balanced with continued caution and care.

[The Feral Slasher]

Also, in addition to other seemingly credible sources that claim far worse outcomes, and the current numbers suggesting the same, there is, as you say, the issue of WH credibility. For weeks as FS was warning us that this thing was serious, Trump insisted it was nothing. He said this thing would go from 15 to 0 cases in short order. So, I do take what he says with a grain of salt, but by all accounts I have seen Fauci is a credible and trusted figure, so his estimate of 100k-200k dead as a worst case gives me hope, even though it does not jive with lots of other sources right now.

A lot depends on how we respond. Not doing enough natjonally but some local governments will save a lot of lives. And some wont

[Judge Jude]

ok, thanks for the response, SM.

just seems like if numerous credible sources project a super-massive number of casualties, and it turns out to be "only" 100,000 - well, I can see where that plays out politically.

[Sour Masher]

A lot depends on how we respond. Not doing enough natjonally but some local governments will save a lot of lives. And some wont

True. And maybe the WH models know things we and other sources do not. We have not seen a slowdown of the curve yet. We will know a lot more about the outcomes once we do. But we have not seen it yet, so it seems hard to me for us to know the worst case outcomes yet. Could our measures lead to 100-200k deaths or even less? I didn't dare to dream in before. I hope so. I still fear 500k or more and will hold that fear until we see the first dip in the first curve, and even then I fear we could see another curve in the coming months...we won't be out of the woods until we get a vaccine or herd immunity.

[GwynnInTheHall]

what is the cure for tds?

[GwynnInTheHall]

Those who continue to defend this man and fail to see what a narcissistic, self-serving sociopath he is--I have no words for them.

Lick a toilet?

[Sour Masher]

ok, thanks for the response, SM.

My advice, if you haven't done so already, would be not to go down the dark path of research. Better to believe the relative optimism of these latest estimates from the WH, as long as they don't breed complacency. Lots of previous estimates from credible sources suggested far worse outcomes, which get overwhelming in the scope of the loss they project. I am not at all trying to fight anyone on the numbers. I'm eager for more optimistic projections, if they are backed by credible science, and it would mean our efforts are working to overt the worst case. I want to feel hope for a return to normalcy and lower deaths and less misery for all. I'm just not 100% convinced of a peak n two weeks and a worst case of 100-200k deaths just yet. I hope so, though!

[Sour Masher]

I just looked again at the global numbers. We are at 34k fatalities with just 722k reported cases. If you figure 10X as many actual cases, and no additional fatalities not reported as COVID-19 deaths (which seems near impossible), you are still at only 1 in 1k people on the planet getting this yet, when most estimates put the eventual infection rate at least 100 times higher than that. IDK. Seems hard to believe we won't see millions dead of this thing globally before its all said and done, and Fauci's numbers as the best case in the US, not the worst. I feel a lot better when we get to the top of the curve.

[rhd]

Fauci, who seems to be a well-respected expert, is pretty optimistic on the outcomes. He says we can go as high as 100,000 to 200,000 deaths, but we are trying to prevent that, and Trump says, I assume based on his experts, to expect a peak in the curve in about two weeks for the country. That worst case of 100-200k is about half of what my best case was based on the global evidence and projections. I'd say we will end up very lucky if we end up with mortality numbers that low.

I don't know what to make of their projections/models. I consider myself an optimist on this and even I thought 500k deaths was likely our best case based on the rate of infection and deaths we have been seeing early on. And the peak of the curve in two weeks is also faster by nearly a month than I'd have expected. Maybe they are assuming 100 cases of COVID-19 per reported ase as opposed to my 10-20. That would explain both their faster peak and their lower death counts.

If their models are right, and they are not lying to us about them, this could really end up only being about twice as bad as the worst flu season we've had in the last 50 years or so. IDK. Not there yet, but I hope they are right.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...Oyy?li=BBnb7Kz

Do you realize that we will be at 100K deaths by April 14? And at 200K deaths 3 days after that? That's based on the deaths doubling every 3 days which is actually somewhat conservative since it more than doubled in just the past 2 1/3 days. Whatever the real # of infections is, the rate is not slowing down in the US. What's more, the rate in Italy, which had maybe a 2-week head start on us, isn't slowing down either. So we have no reason to expect a slowing of the increase from what's happening in Italy. It's not slowing down in any western democracy that I know of. The more I observe things, the more this seems like the 1918 pandemic all over again, only worse because the world has more people, more mobility, less trust in governments and authorities and the disease is harder to detect and thus harder to keep from spreading. It's estimated that 28% of the US population was infected in the 1918 pandemic, so even using a relatively conservative mortality rate of 1%, that would be about 926,000 deaths. The estimated US deaths from the 1918 flu was "only" 500-675,000 but if this flu is as deadly, and I think it is at least as deadly, since the US has 3.2 x the population now as in 1918, this would mean 3.2 x the # of deaths, or 1.6-2.16 mil deaths. If the rates continue to double throughout April, at the end of the month we will have 4 million deaths in the US!!! Hopefully by then the curve will become less steep, but I see nothing that indicates to me that rates of increase will slow down before then.

[Sour Masher]

Do you realize that we will be at 100K deaths by April 14? And at 200K deaths 3 days after that? That's based on the deaths doubling every 3 days which is actually somewhat conservative since it more than doubled in just the past 2 1/3 days. Whatever the real # of infections is, the rate is not slowing down in the US. What's more, the rate in Italy, which had maybe a 2-week head start on us, isn't slowing down either. So we have no reason to expect a slowing of the increase from what's happening in Italy. It's not slowing down in any western democracy that I know of. The more I observe things, the more this seems like the 1918 pandemic all over again, only worse because the world has more people, more mobility, less trust in governments and authorities and the disease is harder to detect and thus harder to keep from spreading. It's estimated that 28% of the US population was infected in the 1918 pandemic, so even using a relatively conservative mortality rate of 1%, that would be about 926,000 deaths. The estimated US deaths from the 1918 flu was "only" 500-675,000 but if this flu is as deadly, and I think it is at least as deadly, since the US has 3.2 x the population now as in 1918, this would mean 3.2 x the # of deaths, or 1.6-2.16 mil deaths. If the rates continue to double throughout April, at the end of the month we will have 4 million deaths in the US!!! Hopefully by then the curve will become less steep, but I see nothing that indicates to me that rates of increase will slow down before then.

As I said in the posts above, the only logical explanation for Fauci's optimism, besides poor models or lying, is their models assume a rate of infection far exceeding the ones you or even I am assuming. There is no way around this being far worse, as you say, unless they are assuming that 100x or more people have this already than have been tested and verified as having this. IF that is the case, and, again, that is the only situation I can see for such optimism as the apex of the curve happening in two weeks (if it is, that 100k death by then would represent about the midpoint, which fits within the upper end of Fauci's estimates). If rather than 142k people having this in the US right now there is already 14.2 million, and yet we are now at 2500 dead, you can get to the numbers they are projecting, or even lower. If someone has a better explanation for those low numbers than the assumption that we already have millions of infections and thus the mortality rate is far lower than we fear, I'd love to hear it. Or if you just think they are outright lies, express that too. I am open to any possibility.

[Judge Jude]

I understand the math.

I also understand that if some of the new efforts - one is antibodies for 45-minute testing, for example - are successful quickly, then the mass media hype of millions of deaths, though grounded in some science, also will seem to have been massive media overhype.

guess what the result of that will be come November?

the seeming 'confidence' of millions of deaths - it's not the right word, but it LOOKS like that - in the US sets up an amazingly low bar for declared success if that doesn't happen. it also doesn't account for possible "deus ex machinas" like I mentioned.

once again, I am feeling Cassandra moments - and there is still nothing I can do about it.

talk about a brutal scenario: be right with grim projections, and it's Armageddon.
be wrong, and.... well....