Corona Virus

[madducks]

My 63 year old sister is a self employed beautician who rents a chair from a salon in Wisconsin. She is shut down and has no unemployment benefit. My wife and I will help her but it won't be enough.

Our good friend works at the school and was told today they are done until next Sept. May or may not get unemployment.

My daughter was laid off with her last day Monday. She lives with us and will be able to get unemployment. My youngest daughter is finishing school but is going to on line classes to finish the year. She has moved back in with us. Keeping her room at the campus doesn't make sense.

My wife and I are staying at my in-laws house. We were staying there to help with both of them in home hospice. Father in law passed three weeks ago, Mother in law passed early Sunday Morning. We need to attend to things here and now we should stay quarantined so we cannot be with the rest of the family.

Her funeral or interment is Tuesday. Only 8 people can attend. It is a military cemetery. Ceremony has been suspended and we can't even get out of the car.

This is a very sad, and challenging time for us. I do have faith that we will get through it. Just have to take it one day at a time.

Sorry to hear about this Gregg. May your faith guide you and your family through this and help you find the strength to move forward.

[Redbirds Fan]

My 63 year old sister is a self employed beautician who rents a chair from a salon in Wisconsin. She is shut down and has no unemployment benefit. My wife and I will help her but it won't be enough.

Our good friend works at the school and was told today they are done until next Sept. May or may not get unemployment.

My daughter was laid off with her last day Monday. She lives with us and will be able to get unemployment. My youngest daughter is finishing school but is going to on line classes to finish the year. She has moved back in with us. Keeping her room at the campus doesn't make sense.

My wife and I are staying at my in-laws house. We were staying there to help with both of them in home hospice. Father in law passed three weeks ago, Mother in law passed early Sunday Morning. We need to attend to things here and now we should stay quarantined so we cannot be with the rest of the family.

Her funeral or interment is Tuesday. Only 8 people can attend. It is a military cemetery. Ceremony has been suspended and we can't even get out of the car.

This is a very sad, and challenging time for us. I do have faith that we will get through it. Just have to take it one day at a time.

Gregg, very sorry for what you and your family are going through.

[Sour Masher]

Gregg, I echo others is sending you condolences and wishing you strength in these very difficult times. I think JJ may be right about the self-employed thing, but I can't find anything on it. I hope it is correct.

[Sour Masher]

Here's an excellent, comprehensive video on the coronavirus, it's characteristics what the world's people should do about it. It's an interview w a Korean doctor. It's long, over 30 mins, and in Korean w English subtitles but if everyone watched it we'd be much better off. He explains that a big reason why S. Korea (as well as other Asian countries) has been more effective in dealing w this is because everyone is wearing masks, as well as washing hands thoroughly, whereas in the West people have been told that wearing masks is not effective against contracting the virus (WHO and US surgeon general, et al) and thus not nearly as many people wear them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

We are being told not to wear masks, and likely being lied to about their effectiveness, because we don't have enough for everyone, and our government wants the limited supply we have to go to health care workers that are exposed most to the virus. Also, it needs to be the right masks. A lot of the masks people can find are not rated to stop this. They need to be the N95 masks, which most have banned the sale of. The lower quality ones likely don't do much, and those are the ones lots of overpaying for right now.

[Sour Masher]

My theory is you are right that we were hit by the virus probably weeks before we realized it and it has torn through the population faster than many realize. The infection rate is at least 10x what we think it is. I have a feeling that when this thing is studied and analyzed we find out that the mortality rate isnt so much higher than the flu, its just that 70% of us will get it unless we stay 6 feet away from each other for at least the rest of the year.

The evidence is overwhelming that the mortality rate is far, far worse than the flu. I think Germany, with its younger population, its tremendous healthcare system that has not yet been overburdened by their infection rate, and their testing of nearly everyone, represents the best case scenario for the mortality rate. Their mortality rate is .74% (although that is counting unresolved cases, so the actual mortality rate may be higher, even accounting for them maybe not testing ALL cases) as opposed to the 10.2% we see in Italy, or the 7.6% we see in Spain.

Given the fact that our population is older, we are testing and tracking far less, and our health care system is already overwhelmed, I go back to my initial estimate/prediction that our mortality rate will be between 1-2% of actual cases (as opposed to tested for cases). Many will say I'm being optimistic with that estimate, but it is still 10-20 times worse than the flu. It is still likely over 1 million deaths in the US, given the rate of infection. The number of flu deaths in the US ranges between 3,000 and 49,000 a year, in the worst year in the last 45 years. It is a lot worse than the flu. In the very best case, it is going to kill 10x more people than the worst seasonal flu we've had in the last 45 years.

[Judge Jude]

Gregg,
This is from The Washington Post:

"In crafting their coronavirus aid package, lawmakers in Congress opted against wading into the thorny war over who qualifies as an employee. Instead, lawmakers set up a fund focused on self-employed workers affected by the outbreak yet ineligible to receive traditional unemployment insurance. The workers can soon apply in their states for aid, and until the end of July, they will see a $600 boost to each of their checks, lawmakers said."

[The Feral Slasher]

We are being told not to wear masks, and likely being lied to about their effectiveness, because we don't have enough for everyone, and our government wants the limited supply we have to go to health care workers that are exposed most to the virus. Also, it needs to be the right masks. A lot of the masks people can find are not rated to stop this. They need to be the N95 masks, which most have banned the sale of. The lower quality ones likely don't do much, and those are the ones lots of overpaying for right now.

I dont believe your statement about needing to be N95 is accurate. My understanding is just about any mask offers some level of protection

[Judge Jude]

https://www.consumerreports.org/coro...t-coronavirus/

With the number of cases of COVID-19 reported in the U.S. growing quickly, many are buying face masks.

But most healthy people who aren't caring for a sick person don't need to wear a face mask to prevent the illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization. That includes plain, loose-fitting masks sometimes called surgical masks; tighter-fitting N95 respirators, which filter out 95 percent of airborne particles; and reusable face masks sometimes advertised as dust masks.

The interest in masks is understandable, says William Schaffner, M.D., a professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville. But any benefit healthy people may get from wearing a mask is likely to be modest. In fact, if you’re not sick or taking care of people who are, wearing a mask comes with downsides.

“In the research that’s been done, we don’t see any benefit at the community level for wearing the mask,” says Amanda McClelland, M.P.H., a senior vice president at Vital Strategies, a public health organization that focuses on global health threats.

Surgical masks, for instance, have a loose fit, which means that droplets of liquid—like what a person expels when they cough, and by which coronavirus is thought to be transmitted—can leak in around the sides of the mask.

The N95 respirators are more snug but can be hard to fit properly. In fact, healthcare workers must take an annual test to prove that they can properly fit the device and create a full seal against leaks around the sides.

Additionally, face masks can be uncomfortable, so you may find yourself frequently adjusting the mask. Or you might take it off to eat or drink, then put it back on afterward. That defeats the purpose, McClelland says. “People contaminate themselves more by touching the mask and taking it on and off their face.”

Both surgical masks and N95 respirators are meant to be used only once and then thrown away - healthcare providers are supposed to use a new mask for every patient, in part because masks can be contaminated by germs during use. But consumers may be tempted to reuse them, possibly spreading the virus to other surfaces or items, says Aaron Glatt, M.D., chairman of medicine at Mount Sinai South Nassau and professor at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

[TranaGreg]

From what I've read about face masks (a fair bit), here's the exec summary ...

-They are effective when worn by people who already have the virus in keeping them from spreading it
-They aren't effective for uninfected people in that 99+% of people contract it by touching something and then touching their face. As JJ's post stated, you may touch your face more often when wearing a mask, so they can actually be worse than no mask at all.
-For medical professionals who are disciplined in not touching their faces & in close proximity of infected people they are life-saving devices.

[The Feral Slasher]

From what I've read about face masks (a fair bit), here's the exec summary ...

-They are effective when worn by people who already have the virus in keeping them from spreading it
-They aren't effective for uninfected people in that 99+% of people contract it by touching something and then touching their face. As JJ's post stated, you may touch your face more often when wearing a mask, so they can actually be worse than no mask at all.
-For medical professionals who are disciplined in not touching their faces & in close proximity of infected people they are life-saving devices.

So if asymptomatic carriers are a majority of cases would it be helpful for them to be wearing masks ?

EDIT: my original response to SM was just to point out that it is not only N95 masks that offer protection, other masks are used, even in hospital settings. The discussion about whether they should be used outside of a hospital is a different question, but also one worth considering.

[cardboardbox]

The evidence is overwhelming that the mortality rate is far, far worse than the flu. I think Germany, with its younger population, its tremendous healthcare system that has not yet been overburdened by their infection rate, and their testing of nearly everyone, represents the best case scenario for the mortality rate. Their mortality rate is .74% (although that is counting unresolved cases, so the actual mortality rate may be higher, even accounting for them maybe not testing ALL cases) as opposed to the 10.2% we see in Italy, or the 7.6% we see in Spain.

Given the fact that our population is older, we are testing and tracking far less, and our health care system is already overwhelmed, I go back to my initial estimate/prediction that our mortality rate will be between 1-2% of actual cases (as opposed to tested for cases). Many will say I'm being optimistic with that estimate, but it is still 10-20 times worse than the flu. It is still likely over 1 million deaths in the US, given the rate of infection. The number of flu deaths in the US ranges between 3,000 and 49,000 a year, in the worst year in the last 45 years. It is a lot worse than the flu. In the very best case, it is going to kill 10x more people than the worst seasonal flu we've had in the last 45 years.

I'm sticking with .5% and I think there's a good chance we come in under that. This is based on the assumption that far more of us already have been infected then anyone is aware of. Your Germany evidence is a good point, but I think many people have already been infected and recovered so when they take the test, it will be negative.

[cardboardbox]

I dont believe your statement about needing to be N95 is accurate. My understanding is just about any mask offers some level of protection

this is correct. The surgical mask doesnt stick to our faces very well but its definitely better than nothing. If possible, we should leave the N95's for health workers and the elderly and the rest of us should wear the surgical mask. Unfortunately, we Americans dont wear masks because they look dumb I guess. I've worn one outside in the yard for allergies and people look at me weird. This was in the past, now people give me 10 feet of space and walk away faster.

[Kevin Seitzer]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyleClark...44575551500289

Some interesting stats from Colorado on the effect of social distancing.

[The Feral Slasher]

So if asymptomatic carriers are a majority of cases would it be helpful for them to be wearing masks ?

EDIT: my original response to SM was just to point out that it is not only N95 masks that offer protection, other masks are used, even in hospital settings. The discussion about whether they should be used outside of a hospital is a different question, but also one worth considering.

Here are a couple of links that I thought were interesting. I know that if I were around sick people I would wear a mask. And chances are that in Seattle I may come into contact with people who are carrying Coronavirus (or could be carrying it myself). I've been considering wearing one on the few times each week that I go out in public to buy groceries. I'm leaning more towards wearing one the next time I go out. As CBB mentioned, if nothing else it may get me some extra space

https://qz.com/1826717/do-masks-protect-against-coronavirus/

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30134-X/fulltext

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/can-a-face-mask-protect-me-from-coronavirus-covid-19-myths-busted

[cardboardbox]

-They aren't effective for uninfected people in that 99+% of people contract it by touching something and then touching their face. As JJ's post stated, you may touch your face more often when wearing a mask, so they can actually be worse than no mask at all.

I've found that I touch my face less when wearing a mask, maybe feeling the mask is a constant reminder not to touch.